Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts

We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation uncertainty and for the copulas to be nested or non-nested. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the proposed test has satisfactory size and power properties in finite samples. Applying the test to daily exchange rate returns of several major currencies against the US dollar we find that the Student's t copula is favored over Gaussian, Gumbel and Clayton copulas. This suggests that these exchange rate returns are characterized by symmetric tail dependence.

Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails

We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted likelihood or censored normal likelihood favor density forecasts with more probability mass in the given region, rendering predictive accuracy tests biased towards such densities. Our novel partial likelihood-based scoring rules do not suffer from this problem, as illustrated by means of Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to daily S\&P 500 index returns.

Where to go in the near future: diverging perspectives on online public service delivery

Although the electronic government is under heavy development, a clear vision doesn’t seem to exist. In this study 20 interviews among leaders in the field of e-government in the Netherlands resulted in different perspectives on the future of electronic public service delivery. The interviews revealed different objectives and interpretations of the presuppositions regarding citizens’ desires. Opinions about channel approaches and ‘trigger services’ appeared to vary. Furthermore, the respondents didn’t agree on the number of contact moments between citizen and government, had different opinions about digital skills, pled for various designs of the electronic government and placed the responsibility for electronic service delivery in different hands. Conclusion is that there is a lack of concepts on how to do things. Everybody talks about eGovernment, but all have different interpretations. \u

Consistent treatment of hydrophobicity in protein lattice models accounts for cold denaturation

The hydrophobic effect stabilizes the native structure of proteins by minimizing the unfavourable interactions between hydrophobic residues and water through the formation of a hydrophobic core. Here we include the entropic and enthalpic contributions of the hydrophobic effect explicitly in an implicit solvent model. This allows us to capture two important effects: a length-scale dependence and a temperature dependence for the solvation of a hydrophobic particle. This consistent treatment of the hydrophobic effect explains cold denaturation and heat capacity measurements of solvated proteins.Comment: Added and corrected references for design procedure in main text (p. 2) and in Supplemental Information (p. 8

The social cognition of medical knowledge, with special reference to childhood epilepsy

This paper arose out of an engagement in medical communication courses at a Gulf university. It deploys a theoretical framework derived from a (critical) sociocognitive approach to discourse analysis in order to investigate three aspects of medical discourse relating to childhood epilepsy: the cognitive processes that are entailed in relating different types of medical knowledge to their communicative context; the types of medical knowledge that are constituted in the three different text types analysed; and the relationship between these different types of medical knowledge and the discursive features of each text type. The paper argues that there is a cognitive dimension to the human experience of understanding and talking about one specialized from of medical knowledge. It recommends that texts be studied in medical communication courses not just in terms of their discrete formal features but also critically, in terms of the knowledge which they produce, transmit and reproduce

Exploration of crime-scene characteristics in juvenile homicide in the French-speaking part of Belgium

This study explores modeling crime-scene characteristics of juvenile homicide in the French-speaking part of Belgium. Multidimensional scaling analysis was carried out on crime-scene characteristics derived from the court files of 67 individuals under 22 years old, who had been charged with murder or attempted murder (1995-2009). Three thematic regions (Expressive: multiple offenders; Instrumental: theft; Instrumental: sex/forensic awareness) distinguished types of aggression displayed during the offense. These themes reaffirm that the expressive-instrumental differentiation found in general homicide studies is valuable when attempting to discriminate juvenile homicides. The proposed framework was found useful to classify the offenses, as 84% of homicides were assigned to a dominant theme. Additionally, associations between crime-scene characteristics and offenders' characteristics were analyzed, but no associations were found, therefore failing to provide empirical support for the homology assumption. Cultural comparisons, as well as the influence of age on the thematic structure are discussed

Biogeomorphology in the field: bedforms and species, a mystic relationship

Fine-scale seabed mapping (Owenia fusiformis, and the razor clam Ensis directus) occur near bedload convergence zones resulting from a mutually evasive flood- and ebb-dominant channel system. Such zones are at the end of the channels, hence also fine grained sediments, food and larvae are trapped. The combination of the coarser-grained bedload with thedeposition of fines is indeed the optimum for a lot of suspension and detritus feeders. Still, highest abundances occur at the fringes of such a system where stress levels are intermediate. Hypotheses were successfully tested along the Dutch coastal zone. Those insights are important to assess changes in seafloor integrity and hydrographic conditions