Incentive compatibility in prediction markets: Costly actions and external incentives

The final publication is available at Elsevier via https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.005. © 2019. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/We consider a multi-round prediction market in which two agents, Alice and Bob, are trading on an event on which each may take action to influence its outcome. The existing literature assumes that there is no net difference between the costs of different actions the agents may take outside the prediction market when external incentives exist. For example, the cost for Alice to work hard to complete the project is the same as it is for her to “loaf” and not work hard. In this work we consider first a two-round and later a four-round setting in which the agents’ costs of external actions differ between actions. We show that a prediction market is incentive-compatible when external action costs differ as long as they remain within a proper range, regardless of the initial market estimate, something that is not shown in the existing literature

Reduced voltage losses yield 10% efficient fullerene free organic solar cells with >1 V open circuit voltages

Optimization of the energy levels at the donor–acceptor interface of organic solar cells has driven their efficiencies to above 10%. However, further improvements towards efficiencies comparable with inorganic solar cells remain challenging because of high recombination losses, which empirically limit the open-circuit voltage (Voc) to typically less than 1 V. Here we show that this empirical limit can be overcome using non-fullerene acceptors blended with the low band gap polymer PffBT4T-2DT leading to efficiencies approaching 10% (9.95%). We achieve Voc up to 1.12 V, which corresponds to a loss of only Eg/q − Voc = 0.5 ± 0.01 V between the optical bandgap Eg of the polymer and Voc. This high Voc is shown to be associated with the achievement of remarkably low non-geminate and non-radiative recombination losses in these devices. Suppression of non-radiative recombination implies high external electroluminescence quantum efficiencies which are orders of magnitude higher than those of equivalent devices employing fullerene acceptors. Using the balance between reduced recombination losses and good photocurrent generation efficiencies achieved experimentally as a baseline for simulations of the efficiency potential of organic solar cells, we estimate that efficiencies of up to 20% are achievable if band gaps and fill factors are further optimized

8p22 MTUS1 Gene Product ATIP3 Is a Novel Anti-Mitotic Protein Underexpressed in Invasive Breast Carcinoma of Poor Prognosis

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease that is not totally eradicated by current therapies. The classification of breast tumors into distinct molecular subtypes by gene profiling and immunodetection of surrogate markers has proven useful for tumor prognosis and prediction of effective targeted treatments. The challenge now is to identify molecular biomarkers that may be of functional relevance for personalized therapy of breast tumors with poor outcome that do not respond to available treatments. The Mitochondrial Tumor Suppressor (MTUS1) gene is an interesting candidate whose expression is reduced in colon, pancreas, ovary and oral cancers. The present study investigates the expression and functional effects of MTUS1 gene products in breast cancer. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By means of gene array analysis, real-time RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry, we show here that MTUS1/ATIP3 is significantly down-regulated in a series of 151 infiltrating breast cancer carcinomas as compared to normal breast tissue. Low levels of ATIP3 correlate with high grade of the tumor and the occurrence of distant metastasis. ATIP3 levels are also significantly reduced in triple negative (ER- PR- HER2-) breast carcinomas, a subgroup of highly proliferative tumors with poor outcome and no available targeted therapy. Functional studies indicate that silencing ATIP3 expression by siRNA increases breast cancer cell proliferation. Conversely, restoring endogenous levels of ATIP3 expression leads to reduced cancer cell proliferation, clonogenicity, anchorage-independent growth, and reduces the incidence and size of xenografts grown in vivo. We provide evidence that ATIP3 associates with the microtubule cytoskeleton and localizes at the centrosomes, mitotic spindle and intercellular bridge during cell division. Accordingly, live cell imaging indicates that ATIP3 expression alters the progression of cell division by promoting prolonged metaphase, thereby leading to a reduced number of cells ungergoing active mitosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results identify for the first time ATIP3 as a novel microtubule-associated protein whose expression is significantly reduced in highly proliferative breast carcinomas of poor clinical outcome. ATIP3 re-expression limits tumor cell proliferation in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that this protein may represent a novel useful biomarker and an interesting candidate for future targeted therapies of aggressive breast cancer

Calibration model for the MDT chambers of the ATLAS Muon Spectrometer

The calibration procedures defined for the Monitored Drift Tube detectors of the ATLAS Muon Spectrometer are reviewed with special emphasis on the model developed and on the data processing. The calibration is based upon track segments reconstructed in the spectrometer, therefore the achievable accuracy depends upon the muon tracks statistics. The calibration parameters have to be produced, validated and made available to be used in reconstruction within one day from the end of the LHC fill. These requirements on the statistics and the latency dictated the development of a dedicated data stream for calibration. The data collection, processing and computing is described