Effect of changes over time in the performance of a customized SAPS-II model on the quality of care assessment

Purpose: The aim of our study was to explore, using an innovative method, the effect of temporal changes in the mortality prediction performance of an existing model on the quality of care assessment. The prognostic model (rSAPS-II) was a recalibrated Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II model developed for very elderly Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients. Methods: The study population comprised all 12,143 consecutive patients aged 80 years and older admitted between January 2004 and July 2009 to one of the ICUs of 21 Dutch hospitals. The prospective dataset was split into 30 equally sized consecutive subsets. Per subset, we measured the model's discrimination [area under the curve (AUC)], accuracy (Brier score), and standardized mortality ratio (SMR), both without and after repeated recalibration. All performance measures were considered to be stable if 1 without and after repeated recalibration for the year 2009. Results: For all subsets, the AUCs were stable, but the Brier scores and SMRs were not. The SMR was downtrending, achieving levels significantly below 1. Repeated recalibration rendered it stable again. The proportions of hospitals with SMR>1 and SMR <1 changed from 15 versus 85% to 35 versus 65%. Conclusions: Variability over time may markedly vary among different performance measures, and infrequent model recalibration can result in improper assessment of the quality of care in many hospitals. We stress the importance of the timely recalibration and repeated validation of prognostic models over tim

Parathyroid adenoma apoplexy as a temporary solution of primary hyperparathyroidism: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>The natural history of patients with spontaneous parathyroid necrosis is unknown. In this case report we describe the clinical course, laboratory, radiographic, bone densitometry tests, parathyroid ultrasonography and scintigraphy examinations of a patient performed over a period of eight years after she first presented with a sudden episode of spontaneous resolution of primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT).</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 24-year-old woman with a clinical history and laboratory and radiographic tests compatible with PHPT suffered a sudden episode of cervical pain and presented with clinical evidence of hypocalcemia. Biopsy of a cervical nodule revealed necrotic material compatible with ischemia of the parathyroid. The follow-up of the patient presented four distinct phases: the first, which lasted two years, was compatible with a period of bone hunger during which it was necessary to introduce calcitriol and calcium carbonate. During this period, the patient showed bone mass gain. The second phase was characterized by normalization of calcium and parathyroid hormone levels and its end was difficult to define. During the third phase there was a recurrence of hypercalcemia associated with elevated parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels and loss of bone mass. The last phase corresponded to the interval after parathyroidectomy, which was characterized by normalization of serum levels of calcium and PTH, as well as bone mass gain.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This case report indicates that spontaneous resolution of PHPT by adenoma necrosis is potentially temporary. Thus, in cases in which a conservative approach is chosen, clinical and laboratory follow-up is indispensable. Bone mass measurement is a useful tool in the follow-up of these cases. However, this option exposes the patient to a potential roller-coaster ride of bone mass gain and loss, whose long term consequences are still unknown.</p

Predicting infectious complications in neutropenic children and young people with cancer (IPD protocol)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A common and potentially life-threatening complication of the treatment of childhood cancer is infection, which frequently presents as fever with neutropenia. The standard management of such episodes is the extensive use of intravenous antibiotics, and though it produces excellent survival rates of over 95%, it greatly inconveniences the three-fourths of patients who do not require such aggressive treatment. There have been a number of studies which have aimed to develop risk prediction models to stratify treatment. Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis in therapeutic studies has been developed to improve the precision and reliability of answers to questions of treatment effect and recently have been suggested to be used to answer questions regarding prognosis and diagnosis to gain greater power from the frequently small individual studies.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>In the IPD protocol, we will collect and synthesise IPD from multiple studies and examine the outcomes of episodes of febrile neutropenia as a consequence of their treatment for malignant disease. We will develop and evaluate a risk stratification model using hierarchical regression models to stratify patients by their risk of experiencing adverse outcomes during an episode. We will also explore specific practical and methodological issues regarding adaptation of established techniques of IPD meta-analysis of interventions for use in synthesising evidence derived from IPD from multiple studies for use in predictive modelling contexts.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Our aim in using this model is to define a group of individuals at low risk for febrile neutropenia who might be treated with reduced intensity or duration of antibiotic therapy and so reduce the inconvenience and cost of these episodes, as well as to define a group of patients at very high risk of complications who could be subject to more intensive therapies. The project will also help develop methods of IPD predictive modelling for use in future studies of risk prediction.</p

Metal-macrofauna interactions determine microbial community structure and function in copper contaminated sediments

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Cardiovascular risk factors among Chamorros

BACKGROUND: Little is known regarding the cardiovascular disease risk factors among Chamorros residing in the United States. METHODS: The Chamorro Directory International and the CDC's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Questionnaire (BRFSS) were used to assess the health related practices and needs of a random sample of 228 Chamorros. RESULTS: Inactivity, hypertension, elevated cholesterol and diabetes mellitus were more prevalent in this Chamorro sample compared to the US average. Participants who were 50-and-older or unemployed were more likely to report hypertension, diabetes and inactivity, but they were also more likely to consume more fruits and vegetables than their younger and employed counterparts. Women were more likely to report hypertension and diabetes, whereas men were more likely to have elevated BMI and to have never had their blood cholesterol checked. CONCLUSION: The study provides data that will help healthcare providers, public health workers and community leaders identify where to focus their health improvement efforts for Chamorros and create culturally competent programs to promote health in this community

Integrating transposable elements in the 3D genome

Chromosome organisation is increasingly recognised as an essential component of genome regulation, cell fate and cell health. Within the realm of transposable elements (TEs) however, the spatial information of how genomes are folded is still only rarely integrated in experimental studies or accounted for in modelling. Whilst polymer physics is recognised as an important tool to understand the mechanisms of genome folding, in this commentary we discuss its potential applicability to aspects of TE biology. Based on recent works on the relationship between genome organisation and TE integration, we argue that existing polymer models may be extended to create a predictive framework for the study of TE integration patterns. We suggest that these models may offer orthogonal and generic insights into the integration profiles (or "topography") of TEs across organisms. In addition, we provide simple polymer physics arguments and preliminary molecular dynamics simulations of TEs inserting into heterogeneously flexible polymers. By considering this simple model, we show how polymer folding and local flexibility may generically affect TE integration patterns. The preliminary discussion reported in this commentary is aimed to lay the foundations for a large-scale analysis of TE integration dynamics and topography as a function of the three-dimensional host genome

Search for sterile neutrino mixing in the MINOS long-baseline experiment

A search for depletion of the combined flux of active neutrino species over a 735 km baseline is reported using neutral-current interaction data recorded by the MINOS detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. Such a depletion is not expected according to conventional interpretations of neutrino oscillation data involving the three known neutrino flavors. A depletion would be a signature of oscillations or decay to postulated noninteracting sterile neutrinos, scenarios not ruled out by existing data. From an exposure of 3.18×1020 protons on target in which neutrinos of energies between ~500¿¿MeV and 120 GeV are produced predominantly as ¿µ, the visible energy spectrum of candidate neutral-current reactions in the MINOS far detector is reconstructed. Comparison of this spectrum to that inferred from a similarly selected near-detector sample shows that of the portion of the ¿µ flux observed to disappear in charged-current interaction data, the fraction that could be converting to a sterile state is less than 52% at 90% confidence level (C.L.). The hypothesis that active neutrinos mix with a single sterile neutrino via oscillations is tested by fitting the data to various models. In the particular four-neutrino models considered, the mixing angles ¿24 and ¿34 are constrained to be less than 11° and 56° at 90% C.L., respectively. The possibility that active neutrinos may decay to sterile neutrinos is also investigated. Pure neutrino decay without oscillations is ruled out at 5.4 standard deviations. For the scenario in which active neutrinos decay into sterile states concurrently with neutrino oscillations, a lower limit is established for the neutrino decay lifetime t3/m3&gt;2.1×10-12¿¿s/eV at 90% C.L

Revised Lithostratigraphy of the Sonsela Member (Chinle Formation, Upper Triassic) in the Southern Part of Petrified Forest National Park, Arizona

BACKGROUND: Recent revisions to the Sonsela Member of the Chinle Formation in Petrified Forest National Park have presented a three-part lithostratigraphic model based on unconventional correlations of sandstone beds. As a vertebrate faunal transition is recorded within this stratigraphic interval, these correlations, and the purported existence of a depositional hiatus (the Tr-4 unconformity) at about the same level, must be carefully re-examined. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our investigations demonstrate the neglected necessity of walking out contacts and mapping when constructing lithostratigraphic models, and providing UTM coordinates and labeled photographs for all measured sections. We correct correlation errors within the Sonsela Member, demonstrate that there are multiple Flattops One sandstones, all of which are higher than the traditional Sonsela sandstone bed, that the Sonsela sandstone bed and Rainbow Forest Bed are equivalent, that the Rainbow Forest Bed is higher than the sandstones at the base of Blue Mesa and Agate Mesa, that strata formerly assigned to the Jim Camp Wash beds occur at two stratigraphic levels, and that there are multiple persistent silcrete horizons within the Sonsela Member. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We present a revised five-part model for the Sonsela Member. The units from lowest to highest are: the Camp Butte beds, Lot's Wife beds, Jasper Forest bed (the Sonsela sandstone)/Rainbow Forest Bed, Jim Camp Wash beds, and Martha's Butte beds (including the Flattops One sandstones). Although there are numerous degradational/aggradational cycles within the Chinle Formation, a single unconformable horizon within or at the base of the Sonsela Member that can be traced across the entire western United States (the "Tr-4 unconformity") probably does not exist. The shift from relatively humid and poorly-drained to arid and well-drained climatic conditions began during deposition of the Sonsela Member (low in the Jim Camp Wash beds), well after the Carnian-Norian transition

Born to be Happy? The Etiology of Subjective Well-Being

Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) can be assessed with distinct measures that have been hypothesized to represent different domains of SWB. The current study assessed SWB with four different measures in a genetically informative sample of adolescent twins and their siblings aged 13–28 years (N = 5,024 subjects from 2,157 families). Multivariate genetic modeling was applied to the data to explore the etiology of individual differences in SWB measures and the association among them. Developmental trends and sex differences were examined for mean levels and the variance-covariance structure. Mean SWB levels were equal in men and women. A small negative effect of age on mean levels of SWB was found. Individual differences in SWB were accounted for by additive and non-additive genetic influences, and non-shared environment. The broad-sense heritabilities were estimated between 40 and 50%. The clustering of the four different measures (quality of life in general, satisfaction with life, quality of life at present, and subjective happiness) was explained by an underlying additive genetic factor and an underlying non-additive genetic factor. The effect of these latent genetic factors on the phenotypes was not moderated by either age or sex

Vignette studies of medical choice and judgement to study caregivers' medical decision behaviour: systematic review

BACKGROUND: Vignette studies of medical choice and judgement have gained popularity in the medical literature. Originally developed in mathematical psychology they can be used to evaluate physicians' behaviour in the setting of diagnostic testing or treatment decisions. We provide an overview of the use, objectives and methodology of these studies in the medical field. METHODS: Systematic review. We searched in electronic databases; reference lists of included studies. We included studies that examined medical decisions of physicians, nurses or medical students using cue weightings from answers to structured vignettes. Two reviewers scrutinized abstracts and examined full text copies of potentially eligible studies. The aim of the included studies, the type of clinical decision, the number of participants, some technical aspects, and the type of statistical analysis were extracted in duplicate and discrepancies were resolved by consensus. RESULTS: 30 reports published between 1983 and 2005 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. 22 studies (73%) reported on treatment decisions and 27 (90%) explored the variation of decisions among experts. Nine studies (30%) described differences in decisions between groups of caregivers and ten studies (33%) described the decision behaviour of only one group. Only six studies (20%) compared decision behaviour against an empirical reference of a correct decision. The median number of considered attributes was 6.5 (IQR 4-9), the median number of vignettes was 27 (IQR 16-40). In 17 studies, decision makers had to rate the relative importance of a given vignette; in six studies they had to assign a probability to each vignette. Only ten studies (33%) applied a statistical procedure to account for correlated data. CONCLUSION: Various studies of medical choice and judgement have been performed to depict weightings of the value of clinical information from answers to structured vignettes of care givers. We found that the design and analysis methods used in current applications vary considerably and could be improved in a large number of cases