Variability and uncertainty in empirical ground-motion prediction for probabilistic hazard and risk analyses

© The Author(s) 2015.The terms aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty mean different things to people who routinely use them within the fields of seismic hazard and risk analysis. This state is not helped by the repetition of loosely framed generic definitions that actually inaccurate. The present paper takes a closer look at the components of total uncertainty that contribute to ground-motion modelling in hazard and risk applications. The sources and nature of uncertainty are discussed and it is shown that the common approach to deciding what should be included within hazard and risk integrals and what should be pushed into logic tree formulations warrants reconsideration. In addition, it is shown that current approaches to the generation of random fields of ground motions for spatial risk analyses are incorrect and a more appropriate framework is presented

Spina bifida-predisposing heterozygous mutations in Planar Cell Polarity genes and Zic2 reduce bone mass in young mice

Fractures are a common comorbidity in children with the neural tube defect (NTD) spina bifida. Mutations in the Wnt/planar cell polarity (PCP) pathway contribute to NTDs in humans and mice, but whether this pathway independently determines bone mass is poorly understood. Here, we first confirmed that core Wnt/PCP components are expressed in osteoblasts and osteoclasts in vitro. In vivo, we performed detailed µCT comparisons of bone structure in tibiae from young male mice heterozygous for NTD-associated mutations versus WT littermates. PCP signalling disruption caused by Vangl2 (Vangl2Lp/+) or Celsr1 (Celsr1Crsh/+) mutations significantly reduced trabecular bone mass and distal tibial cortical thickness. NTD-associated mutations in non-PCP transcription factors were also investigated. Pax3 mutation (Pax3Sp2H/+) had minimal effects on bone mass. Zic2 mutation (Zic2Ku/+) significantly altered the position of the tibia/fibula junction and diminished cortical bone in the proximal tibia. Beyond these genes, we bioinformatically documented the known extent of shared genetic networks between NTDs and bone properties. 46 genes involved in neural tube closure are annotated with bone-related ontologies. These findings document shared genetic networks between spina bifida risk and bone structure, including PCP components and Zic2. Genetic variants which predispose to spina bifida may therefore independently diminish bone mass

Genomic Targets of Brachyury (T) in Differentiating Mouse Embryonic Stem Cells

The T-box transcription factor Brachyury (T) is essential for formation of the posterior mesoderm and the notochord in vertebrate embryos. Work in the frog and the zebrafish has identified some direct genomic targets of Brachyury, but little is known about Brachyury targets in the mouse.Here we use chromatin immunoprecipitation and mouse promoter microarrays to identify targets of Brachyury in embryoid bodies formed from differentiating mouse ES cells. The targets we identify are enriched for sequence-specific DNA binding proteins and include components of signal transduction pathways that direct cell fate in the primitive streak and tailbud of the early embryo. Expression of some of these targets, such as Axin2, Fgf8 and Wnt3a, is down regulated in Brachyury mutant embryos and we demonstrate that they are also Brachyury targets in the human. Surprisingly, we do not observe enrichment of the canonical T-domain DNA binding sequence 5'-TCACACCT-3' in the vicinity of most Brachyury target genes. Rather, we have identified an (AC)(n) repeat sequence, which is conserved in the rat but not in human, zebrafish or Xenopus. We do not understand the significance of this sequence, but speculate that it enhances transcription factor binding in the regulatory regions of Brachyury target genes in rodents.Our work identifies the genomic targets of a key regulator of mesoderm formation in the early mouse embryo, thereby providing insights into the Brachyury-driven genetic regulatory network and allowing us to compare the function of Brachyury in different species