Cold Flows and Large Scale Tides

Several studies have indicated that the local cosmic velocity field is rather cold, in particular in the regions outside the massive, virialized clusters of galaxies. If our local cosmic environment is taken to be a representative volume of the Universe, the repercussion of this finding is that either we live in a low-$\Omega$ Universe and/or that the galaxy distribution is a biased reflection of the underlying mass distribution. Otherwise, the pronounced nature of the observed galaxy distribution would be irreconcilable with the relatively quiet flow of the galaxies. Here we propose a different view on this cosmic dilemma, stressing the fact that our cosmic neighbourhood embodies a region of rather particular dynamical properties, and henceforth we are apt to infer flawed conclusions with respect to the global Universe. Suspended between two huge mass concentrations, the Great Attractor region and the Perseus-Pisces chain, we find ourselves in a region of relatively low density yet with a very strong tidal shear. This tidal field induces a local velocity field with a significant large-scale bulk flow but a low small-scale velocity dispersion. By means of constrained realizations of our local Universe, consisting of Wiener-filtered reconstructions inferred from the Mark III catalogue of galaxy peculiar velocities in combination with appropriate spectrally determined fluctuations, we study the implications for our local velocity field. We find that we live near a local peak in the distribution of the cosmic Mach number, $|v_{bulk}|/\sigma_v$, and that our local cosmic niche is located in the tail of the Mach number distribution function.Comment: Contribution to `Evolution of Large Scale Structure', MPA/ESO Conference, August 1997, eds. A. Banday & R. Sheth, Twin Press. 5 pages of LaTeX including 3 postscript figures. Uses tp.sty and psfi

Portfolio Allocation for Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes has become an increasingly popular tool in the machine learning community. It is efficient and can be used when very little is known about the objective function, making it popular in expensive black-box optimization scenarios. It uses Bayesian methods to sample the objective efficiently using an acquisition function which incorporates the model's estimate of the objective and the uncertainty at any given point. However, there are several different parameterized acquisition functions in the literature, and it is often unclear which one to use. Instead of using a single acquisition function, we adopt a portfolio of acquisition functions governed by an online multi-armed bandit strategy. We propose several portfolio strategies, the best of which we call GP-Hedge, and show that this method outperforms the best individual acquisition function. We also provide a theoretical bound on the algorithm's performance.Comment: This revision contains an updated the performance bound and other minor text change

New Maser Emission from Nonmetastable Ammonia in NGC 7538. II. Green Bank Telescope Observations Including Water Masers

We present new maser emission from ^{14}NH_3 (9,6) in NGC 7538. Our observations include the known spectral features near v_LSR = -60 km/s and -57 km/s and several more features extending to -46 km/s. In three epochs of observation spanning two months we do not detect any variability in the ammonia masers, in contrast to the >10-fold variability observed in other ^{14}NH_3 (9,6) masers in the Galaxy over comparable timescales. We also present observations of water masers in all three epochs for which emission is observed over the velocity range -105 km/s < v_LSR < -4 km/s, including the highest velocity water emission yet observed from NGC 7538. Of the remarkable number of maser species in IRS 1, H_2O and, now, ^{14}NH_3 are the only masers known to exhibit emission outside of the velocity range -62 km/s < v_LSR < -51 km/s. However, we find no significant intensity or velocity correlations between the water emission and ammonia emission. We also present a non-detection in the most sensitive search to date toward any source for emission from the CC^{32}S and CC^{34}S molecules, indicating an age greater than \approx 10^4 yr for IRS 1-3. We discuss these findings in the context of embedded stellar cores and recent models of the region.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables; accepted to AJ; color figures only on arxiv; revised to include references and minor proof change

Constrained simulations of the local universe: I. Mass and motion in the Local Volume

It has been recently claimed that there is no correlation between the distribution of galaxies and their peculiar velocities within the Local Volume (LV), namely a sphere of R=7/h Mpc around the Local Group (LG). It has been then stated that this implies that either locally dark matter is not distributed in the same way as luminous matter, or peculiar velocities are not due to fluctuations in mass. To test that statement a set of constrained N-body cosmological simulations, designed to reproduce the main observed large scale structure, have been analyzed. The simulations were performed within the flat-Lambda, open and flat matter only CDM cosmogonies. Two unconstrained simulations of the flat-Lambda and open CDM models were performed for comparison. LG-like objects have been selected so as to mimic the real LG environment. The local gravitational field due to all halos found within each LV is compared with the exact gravitational field induced by all matter in the simulation. We conclude that there is no correlation between the exact and the local gravitational field obtained by pairwise newtonian forces between halos. Moreover, the local gravitational field is uncorrelated with the peculiar velocities of halos. The exact gravitational field has a linear correlation with peculiar velocities but the proportionality constant relating the velocity with gravitational field falls below the prediction of the linear theory. Upon considering all matter inside the LVs, the exact and local gravitational accelerations show a much better correlation, but with a considerable scatter independent on the cosmological models. The main conclusion is that the lack of correlation between the local gravitation and the peculiar velocity fields around LG-like objects is naturally expected in the CDM cosmologies.Comment: 10 pages, 19 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

An Entropy Search Portfolio for Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient method for black-box global optimization. How- ever, the performance of a Bayesian optimization method very much depends on its exploration strategy, i.e. the choice of acquisition function, and it is not clear a priori which choice will result in superior performance. While portfolio methods provide an effective, principled way of combining a collection of acquisition functions, they are often based on measures of past performance which can be misleading. To address this issue, we introduce the Entropy Search Portfolio (ESP): a novel approach to portfolio construction which is motivated by information theoretic considerations. We show that ESP outperforms existing portfolio methods on several real and synthetic problems, including geostatistical datasets and simulated control tasks. We not only show that ESP is able to offer performance as good as the best, but unknown, acquisition function, but surprisingly it often gives better performance. Finally, over a wide range of conditions we find that ESP is robust to the inclusion of poor acquisition functions.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Contemporary splinting practice in the UK for adults with neurological dysfunction: A cross-sectional survey

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Aim: To explore the contemporary splinting practice of UK occupational therapists and physiotherapists for adults with neurological dysfunction. Method: Cross-sectional online survey of members of the Association of Chartered Physiotherapists in Neurology and College of Occupational Therapists Specialist Section Neurological Practice. Results: Four hundred and twenty therapists completed the survey. Contracture management is the most common rationale for therapists splinting adults with neurological dysfunction. Other shared therapeutic goals of splinting include maintaining muscle and joint alignment, spasticity management, function, pain management and control of oedema. Considerable clinical uncertainty was uncovered in practice particularly around wearing regimens of splints. Most therapists have access to locally-derived splinting guidelines, which may contribute to this diversity of practice. Conclusions: This study provides a unique insight into aspects of contemporary splinting practice among UK therapists, who belong to a specialist neurological professional network and work in a number of different health-care settings with adults who have a neurological condition. Study findings show a wide variation in splinting practice, thereby indicating a potential need for national guidance to assist therapists in this area of clinical uncertainty. Further research is required to establish best practice parameters for splinting in neurological rehabilitation

Supportive but wary. How Europeans feel about the EU 60 years after the Treaty of Rome. eupinions #2017/1

The Eurozone crisis has pushed reform of the European Union (EU) to the forefront of political debate. How can a Union of 28 states with a population of over half a billion be reformed to weather future economic crises and political challenges? Finding an answer to this question is extremely difficult not only because current reform proposals are so varied, but even more so because we lack insights into the preferences for reform amongst national elites and publics. Although EU support has interested scholars for over three decades now, we virtually know nothing about public support for EU reform. Current research focuses almost exclusively on the causes of support for the current project and fails to provide a sufficient basis for effective reform decisions. Surely, the feasibility and sustainability of EU reform crucially hinges on the support amongst national publics. eupinions examines public support for EU reform by developing a theoretical model and employing cutting-edge data collection techniques. Our findings will aid policy makers to craft EU reform proposals that can secure widespread public support

On the Complexity of Hilbert Refutations for Partition

Given a set of integers W, the Partition problem determines whether W can be divided into two disjoint subsets with equal sums. We model the Partition problem as a system of polynomial equations, and then investigate the complexity of a Hilbert's Nullstellensatz refutation, or certificate, that a given set of integers is not partitionable. We provide an explicit construction of a minimum-degree certificate, and then demonstrate that the Partition problem is equivalent to the determinant of a carefully constructed matrix called the partition matrix. In particular, we show that the determinant of the partition matrix is a polynomial that factors into an iteration over all possible partitions of W.Comment: Final versio