The added value of ordinal analysis in clinical trials: an example in traumatic brain injury

INTRODUCTION: In clinical trials, ordinal outcome measures are often dichotomized into two categories. In traumatic brain injury (TBI) the 5-point Glasgow outcome scale (GOS) is collapsed into unfavourable versus favourable outcome. Simulation studies have shown that exploiting the ordinal nature of the GOS increases chances of detecting treatment effects. The objective of this study is to quantify the benefits of ordinal analysis in the real-life situation of a large TBI trial. METHODS: We used data from the CRASH trial that investigated the efficacy of corticosteroids in TBI patients (n = 9,554). We applied two techniques for ordinal analysis: proportional odds analysis and the sliding dichotomy approach, where the GOS is dichotomized at different cut-offs according to baseline prognostic risk. These approaches were compared to dichotomous analysis. The information density in each analysis was indicated by a Wald statistic. All analyses were adjusted for baseline characteristics. RESULTS: Dichotomous analysis of the six-month GOS showed a non-significant treatment effect (OR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.21, P = 0.096). Ordinal analysis with proportional odds regression or sliding dichotomy showed highly statistically significant treatment effects (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.25, P = 0.0007 and 1.19, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.30, P = 0.0002), with 2.05-fold and 2.56-fold higher information density compared to the dichotomous approach respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the CRASH trial data confirmed that ordinal analysis of outcome substantially increases statistical power. We expect these results to hold for other fields of critical care medicine that use ordinal outcome measures and recommend that future trials adopt ordinal analyses. This will permit detection of smaller treatment effects

Reducing recurrent care proceedings: initial evidence from new interventions

The English family justice system faces a crisis of recurrence. As many as one in four birth mothers involved in public law care proceedings in English family courts are likely to reappear in a subsequent set of proceedings within seven years. These mothers are involved in up to one-third of total care applications, as they are – by definition – linked to more than one child . Few birth mothers experiencing the removal of a child to care are offered any follow-up support, despite often facing multiple challenges including poverty, addiction, domestic violence and mental health problems. Since 2011, however, a number of new services have been established to begin to address their unmet needs. This article summarises the findings of the first academic-led evaluation of two of these initiatives. Presenting evidence from a mixed-methods evaluative study, it concludes that the new services were able to foster relationships that ‘worked’ in reducing recurrent proceedings. None of the women engaging with the services went on to experience what could be described as a ‘rapid repeat pregnancy’ within the evaluation window. Just as significantly, a number of clients reported some improvement in their psychological functioning, and the practitioners involved reported positively on their experience of delivering and managing innovative services. The article closes with a discussion of the challenges of evaluating personalised, strengths-based interventions and the possibilities of evidencing empowerment in these cases

Therapeutic hypothermia

Pioneer works on therapeutic hypothermia (TH) half a century ago already showed promising results but clinical application was limited by a lack of understanding of the underlying pathophysiology, lack of reliable method for temperature control and lack of intensive care facilities to deal with possible complications. More recently, 2 studies in 2002 supported the application of moderate TH (32.0-34.0℃) in post-cardiac arrest patients. Although the studies included only patients suffering from out-of-hospital VF, many ICUs world-wide are applying the therapy to all post-cardiac arrest patients irrespective of site or presenting rhythm. While primary coagulopathy and cardiogenic shock are usually stated as relative contraindications, evidences are accumulating to support the application of TH in patients with cardiogenic shock. TH can be divided into 4 phases: Induction, maintenance, de-cooling and normothermia. Induction is usually achieved by infusion of cold isotonic fluid. The precautions included avoidance of over-cooling, hypokalaemia, hyperglycaemia, and shivering. TH can be maintained by many different methods, varying in their level of invasiveness, cost and effectiveness. Issues including changes in pharmacokinetics and haemodynamics, and susceptibility to infection need to the addressed. The optimal duration of maintenance is unknown but the usual practice is 12-24 hours. De-cooling and rewarming is especially challenging because complications can be serious if temperature rise by more than 1℃ every 3-5 hours. Life-theatening hyperkalaemia can occur especially if patient suffers from renal insufficiency. Fever is a frequent complication either due to infection or post-cardiac arrest syndrome but patient must be kept normothermic for 72 hours

Cohort profile: Risk and risk factors for female breast cancer after treatment for childhood and adolescent cancer: an internationally pooled cohort.

PURPOSE The International Consortium for Pooled Studies on Subsequent Malignancies after Childhood and Adolescent Cancer was established in 2018 to address gaps in knowledge of risk and risk factors for breast cancer subsequent to childhood/adolescent cancer by pooling individual patient data from seven cohorts. Initially, the pooled cohort will focus on three clinically relevant questions regarding treatment-related subsequent breast cancer risk in female survivors, which are the risk related to low-dose radiotherapy exposure to the chest, specific chemotherapy agents and attained age. PARTICIPANTS The consortium database includes pooled data on 21 892 female survivors from seven cohorts in North America and Europe with a primary cancer diagnosis at <21 years of age, and survival ≥5 years from diagnosis. FINDINGS TO DATE This is a newly established pooled study. The cohort profile summarised the data collected from each included cohort, including childhood cancer diagnosis information and treatment details (ie, radiotherapy fields and cumulative doses, and chemotherapy agents and cumulative doses for each agent). Included cohorts' follow-up started 1951-1981 and ended 2013-2021, respectively, for a median follow-up duration of 24.3 (IQR 18.0-32.8) years since primary cancer diagnosis. The median age at primary cancer diagnosis was 5.4 (IQR 2.5-11.9) years. And the median attained age at last follow-up was 32.2 (IQR 24.0-40.4) years. In all, 4240 (19.4%) survivors were treated with radiotherapy to the chest and 9308 (42.5%) with anthracyclines. At the end of the follow-up, 835 females developed a first subsequent breast cancer, including 635 invasive breast cancer only, 184 carcinomas in situ only (172 ductal carcinomas in situ and 12 lobular carcinomas in situ), and 16 with both an invasive and in situ diagnosis at the same moment. The cumulative incidences of subsequent breast cancer (both invasive and in situ) 25 and 35 years after primary cancer diagnosis were 2.2% and 6.2%, respectively. FUTURE PLANS The consortium is intended to serve as a model and robust source of childhood/adolescent cancer survivor data for elucidating other knowledge gaps on subsequent breast cancer risk, and risk of other subsequent malignancies (including data on males) in the future

A clinical and EEG scoring system that predicts early cortical response (N20) to somatosensory evoked potentials and outcome after cardiac arrest

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Anoxic coma following cardiac arrest is a common problem with ethical, social, and legal consequences. Except for unfavorable somatosensory-evoked potentials (SSEP) results, predictors of unfavorable outcome with a 100% specificity and a high sensitivity are lacking. The aim of the current research was to construct a clinical and EEG scoring system that predicts early cortical response (N20) to somatosensory evoked potentials and 6-months outcome in comatose patients after cardiac arrest.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We retrospectively reviewed the records of all consecutive patients who suffered cardiac arrest outside our hospital and were subsequently admitted to our facility from November 2002 to July 2006. We scored each case based on early clinical and EEG factors associated with unfavorable SSEPs, and we assessed the ability of this score to predict SSEP results and outcome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty-six patients qualified for inclusion in the cohort. Among them, 34 (52%) had unfavorable SSEP results. At day three, factors independently associated with unfavorable SSEPs were: absence of corneal (14 points) and pupillary (21 points) reflexes, myoclonus (25 points), extensor or absent motor response to painful stimulation (28 points), and malignant EEG (11 points). A score >40 points had a sensitivity of 85%, a specificity of 84%, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 85% to predict unfavorable SSEP results. A score >88 points had a PPV of 100%, but a sensitivity of 18%. Overall, this score had an area under ROC curves of 0.919. In addition, at day three, a score > 69 points had a PPV of 100% with a sensitivity of 32% to predict death or vegetative state.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A scoring system based on a combination of clinical and EEG findings can predict the absence of early cortical response to SSEPs. In settings without access to SSEPs, this score may help decision-making in a subset of comatose survivors after a cardiac arrest.</p

Patterns, trends and sex differences in HIV/AIDS reported mortality in Latin American countries: 1996-2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>International cohort studies have shown that antiretroviral treatment (ART) has improved survival of HIV-infected individuals. National population based studies of HIV mortality exist in industrialized settings but few have been presented from developing countries. Our objective was to investigate on a population basis, the regional situation regarding HIV mortality and trends in Latin America (LA) in the context of adoption of public ART policies and gender differences.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cause of death data from vital statistics registries from 1996 to 2007 with "good" or "average" quality of mortality data were examined. Standardized mortality rates and Poisson regression models by country were developed and differences among countries assessed to identify patterns of HIV mortality over time occurring in Latin America.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Standardized HIV mortality following the adoption of public ART policies was highest in Panama and El Salvador and lowest in Chile. During the study period, three overall patterns were identified in HIV mortality trends- following the adoption of the free ART public policies; a remarkable decrement, a remarkable increment and a slight increment. HIV mortality was consistently higher in males compared to females. Mean age of death attributable to HIV increased in the majority of countries over the study period.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Vital statistics registries provide valuable information on HIV mortality in LA. While the introduction of national policies for free ART provision has coincided with declines in population-level HIV mortality and increasing age of death in some countries, in others HIV mortality has increased. Barriers to effective ART implementation and uptake in the context of free ART public provision policies should be further investigated.</p

Implantable or External Defibrillators for Individuals at Increased Risk of Cardiac Arrest: Where Cost-Effectiveness Hits Fiscal Reality

Objcetives:  Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) are highly effective at preventing cardiac arrest, but their availability is limited by high cost. Automated external defibrillators (AEDs) are likely to be less effective, but also less expensive. We used decision analysis to evaluate the clinical and economic trade-offs of AEDs, ICDs, and emergency medical services equipped with defibrillators (EMS-D) for reducing cardiac arrest mortality. Methods:  A Markov model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of three strategies in adults meeting entry criteria for the MADIT II Trial: strategy 1, individuals experiencing cardiac arrest are treated by EMS-D; strategy 2, individuals experiencing cardiac arrest are treated with an in-home AED; and strategy 3, individuals receive a prophylactic ICD. The model was then used to quantify the aggregate societal benefit of these three strategies under the conditions of a constrained federal budget. Results:  Compared with EMS-D, in-home AEDs produced a gain of 0.05 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at an incremental cost of $5225 ($104,500 per QALY), while ICDs produced a gain of 0.90 QALYs at a cost of $114,660 ($127,400 per QALY). For every $1 million spent on defibrillators, 1.7 additional QALYs are produced by purchasing AEDs (9.6 QALYs/$million) instead of ICDs (7.9 QALYs/$million). Results were most sensitive to defibrillator complication rates and effectiveness, defibrillator cost, and adults’ risk of cardiac arrest. Conclusions:  Both AEDs and ICDs reduce cardiac arrest mortality, but AEDs are significantly less expensive and less effective. If financial constraints were to lead to rationing of defibrillators, it might be preferable to provide more people with a less effective and less expensive intervention (in-home AEDs) instead of providing fewer people with a more effective and more costly intervention (ICDs).Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74790/1/j.1524-4733.2006.00118.x.pd

PAIS: paracetamol (acetaminophen) in stroke; protocol for a randomized, double blind clinical trial. [ISCRTN 74418480]

BACKGROUND: In patients with acute stroke, increased body temperature is associated with large lesion volumes, high case fatality, and poor functional outcome. A 1°C increase in body temperature may double the odds of poor outcome. Two randomized double-blind clinical trials in patients with acute ischemic stroke have shown that treatment with a daily dose of 6 g acetaminophen (paracetamol) results in a small but rapid and potentially worthwhile reduction of 0.3°C (95% CI: 0.1–0.5) in body temperature. We set out to test the hypothesis that early antipyretic therapy reduces the risk of death or dependency in patients with acute stroke, even if they are normothermic. METHODS/DESIGN: Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) In Stroke (PAIS) is a randomized, double-blind clinical trial, comparing high-dose acetaminophen with placebo in 2500 patients. Inclusion criteria are a clinical diagnosis of hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke and the possibility to start treatment within 12 hours from onset of symptoms. The study will have a power of 86% to detect an absolute difference of 6% in the risk of death or dependency at three months, and a power of 72% to detect an absolute difference of 5%, at a 5% significance level. DISCUSSION: This is a simple trial, with a drug that only has a small effect on body temperature in normothermic patients. However, when lowering body temperature with acetaminophen does have the expected effectiveness, 20 patients will have to be treated to prevent dependency or death in one

Reperfusion injury following cerebral ischemia: pathophysiology, MR imaging, and potential therapies

INTRODUCTION: Restoration of blood flow following ischemic stroke can be achieved by means of thrombolysis or mechanical recanalization. However, for some patients, reperfusion may exacerbate the injury initially caused by ischemia, producing a so-called “cerebral reperfusion injury”. Multiple pathological processes are involved in this injury, including leukocyte infiltration, platelet and complement activation, postischemic hyperperfusion, and breakdown of the blood–brain barrier. METHODS/RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can provide extensive information on this process of injury, and may have a role in the future in stratifying patients’ risk for reperfusion injury following recanalization. Moreover, different MRI modalities can be used to investigate the various mechanisms of reperfusion injury. Antileukocyte antibodies, brain cooling and conditioned blood reperfusion are potential therapeutic strategies for lessening or eliminating reperfusion injury, and interventionalists may play a role in the future in using some of these therapies in combination with thrombolysis or embolectomy. The present review summarizes the mechanisms of reperfusion injury and focuses on the way each of those mechanisms can be evaluated by different MRI modalities. The potential therapeutic strategies are also discussed

Student politics, teaching politics, black politics: an interview with Ansel Wong

Ansel Wong is the quiet man of British black politics, rarely in the limelight and never seeking political office. And yet his ‘career’ here – from Black Power firebrand to managing a multimillion budget as head of the Greater London Council’s Ethnic Minority Unit in the 1980s – spells out some of the most important developments in black educational and cultural projects. In this interview, he discusses his identification with Pan-Africanism, his involvement in student politics, his role in the establishment of youth projects and supplementary schools in the late 1960s and 1970s, and his involvement in black radical politics in London in the same period, all of which took place against the background of revolutionary ferment in the Third World and the world of ideas, and were not without their own internal class and ethnic conflicts