Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Factors predicting drop out from, and retention in, specialist drug treatment services: A case control study in the North West of England

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background:</p> <p>In the United Kingdom (UK), the National Treatment Agency for Substance Misuse (NTA) considers retention to be the best available measure of drug treatment effectiveness. Accordingly, the NTA has set local treatment systems the annual target of retaining 75% of clients for 12 weeks or more, yet little assessment of this target or factors that improve retention has occurred. This study aims to quantify the proportion of people retained in treatment for 12 weeks in the North West of England and to identify factors associated with premature drop out.</p> <p>Methods:</p> <p>The North West National Drug Treatment Monitoring System (NDTMS) was used to identify treatment durations for everyone beginning a treatment episode between 1^stApril 2005 and 31^stMarch 2006 (N = 16626). Odds ratios, chi-square and logistic regression analyses compared clients retained for 12 weeks to clients whose discharge record showed they had prematurely dropped out before 12 weeks. Individuals with other outcomes were excluded from analyses.</p> <p>Results:</p> <p>75% of clients (N = 12230) were retained for 12 weeks and 10% (N = 1649) dropped out prematurely. Multivariate analysis showed drop out was more likely among Asian drug users (adjusted odds ratio 1.52, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.08) than their white equivalents. Drop out was more likely among residents of Cumbria and Lancashire (adjusted odds ratio 1.80, 95% CI 1.51 to 2.15) and Greater Manchester (adjusted odds ratio 2.00, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.29) than Cheshire and Merseyside and less likely among alcohol users (adjusted odds ratio 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.91). A significant interaction between age and deprivation was observed. For those aged 18 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years, drop out was significantly more likely among those living in affluent areas. For those in the older age groups the converse effect was observed.</p> <p>Conclusion:</p> <p>In combination, the drug treatment systems of the North West achieved the Government's retention target in 2005/06. A number of factors associated with drop out were identified; these should be considered in strategies that aim to improve retention. Drop out and retention are measures that capture the joint effect of many factors. Further work is required to evaluate the effect of deprivation.</p

Trigger finger: etiology, evaluation, and treatment

Trigger finger is a common finger aliment, thought to be caused by inflammation and subsequent narrowing of the A1 pulley, which causes pain, clicking, catching, and loss of motion of the affected finger. Although it can occur in anyone, it is seen more frequently in the diabetic population and in women, typically in the fifth to sixth decade of life. The diagnosis is usually fairly straightforward, as most patients complain of clicking or locking of the finger, but other pathological processes such as fracture, tumor, or other traumatic soft tissue injuries must be excluded. Treatment modalities, including splinting, corticosteroid injection, or surgical release, are very effective and are tailored to the severity and duration of symptoms

Differential Response to Soil Salinity in Endangered Key Tree Cactus: Implications for Survival in a Changing Climate

Understanding reasons for biodiversity loss is essential for developing conservation and management strategies and is becoming increasingly urgent with climate change. Growing at elevations <1.4 m in the Florida Keys, USA, the endangered Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii) experienced 84 percent loss of total stems from 1994 to 2007. The most severe losses of 99 and 88 percent stems occurred in the largest populations in the Lower Keys, where nine storms with high wind velocities and storm surges, occurred during this period. In contrast, three populations had substantial stem proliferation. To evaluate possible mortality factors related to changes in climate or forest structure, we examined habitat variables: soil salinity, elevation, canopy cover, and habitat structure near 16 dying or dead and 18 living plants growing in the Lower Keys. Soil salinity and elevation were the preliminary factors that discriminated live and dead plants. Soil salinity was 1.5 times greater, but elevation was 12 cm higher near dead plants than near live plants. However, distribution-wide stem loss was not significantly related to salinity or elevation. Controlled salinity trials indicated that salt tolerance to levels above 40 mM NaCl was related to maternal origin. Salt sensitive plants from the Lower Keys had less stem growth, lower root:shoot ratios, lower potassium: sodium ratios and lower recovery rate, but higher δ 13C than a salt tolerant lineage of unknown origin. Unraveling the genetic structure of salt tolerant and salt sensitive lineages in the Florida Keys will require further genetic tests. Worldwide rare species restricted to fragmented, low-elevation island habitats, with little or no connection to higher ground will face challenges from climate change-related factors. These great conservation challenges will require traditional conservation actions and possibly managed relocation that must be informed by studies such as these

Ratio-Based Analysis of Differential mRNA Processing and Expression of a Polyadenylation Factor Mutant pcfs4 Using Arabidopsis Tiling Microarray

US National Institutes of Health [1R15GM07719201A1]; US National Science Foundation [IOS-0817818]; Ohio Plant Biotech Consortium; National Natural Science Foundation of China [60774033]; Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher EducatiBackground: Alternative polyadenylation as a mechanism in gene expression regulation has been widely recognized in recent years. Arabidopsis polyadenylation factor PCFS4 was shown to function in leaf development and in flowering time control. The function of PCFS4 in controlling flowering time was correlated with the alternative polyadenylation of FCA, a flowering time regulator. However, genetic evidence suggested additional targets of PCFS4 that may mediate its function in both flowering time and leaf development. Methodology/Principal Findings: To identify further targets, we investigated the whole transcriptome of a PCFS4 mutant using Affymetrix Arabidopsis genomic tiling 1.0R array and developed a data analysis pipeline, termed RADPRE (Ratio-based Analysis of Differential mRNA Processing and Expression). In RADPRE, ratios of normalized probe intensities between wild type Columbia and a pcfs4 mutant were first generated. By doing so, one of the major problems of tiling array data-variations caused by differential probe affinity-was significantly alleviated. With the probe ratios as inputs, a hierarchy of statistical tests was carried out to identify differentially processed genes (DPG) and differentially expressed genes (DEG). The false discovery rate (FDR) of this analysis was estimated by using the balanced random combinations of Col/pcfs4 and pcfs4/Col ratios as inputs. Gene Ontology (GO) analysis of the DPGs and DEGs revealed potential new roles of PCFS4 in stress responses besides flowering time regulation. Conclusion/Significance: We identified 68 DPGs and 114 DEGs with FDR at 1% and 2%, respectively. Most of the 68 DPGs were subjected to alternative polyadenylation, splicing or transcription initiation. Quantitative PCR analysis of a set of DPGs confirmed that most of these genes were truly differentially processed in pcfs4 mutant plants. The enriched GO term "regulation of flower development'' among PCFS4 targets further indicated the efficacy of the RADPRE pipeline. This simple but effective program is available upon request

Cyclized NDGA modifies dynamic α-synuclein monomers preventing aggregation and toxicity.

Growing evidence implicates α-synuclein aggregation as a key driver of neurodegeneration in Parkinson's disease (PD) and other neurodegenerative disorders. Herein, the molecular and structural mechanisms of inhibiting α-synuclein aggregation by novel analogs of nordihydroguaiaretic acid (NDGA), a phenolic dibenzenediol lignan, were explored using an array of biochemical and biophysical methodologies. NDGA analogs induced modest, progressive compaction of monomeric α-synuclein, preventing aggregation into amyloid-like fibrils. This conformational remodeling preserved the dynamic adoption of α-helical conformations, which are essential for physiological membrane interactions. Oxidation-dependent NDGA cyclization was required for the interaction with monomeric α-synuclein. NDGA analog-pretreated α-synuclein did not aggregate even without NDGA-analogs in the aggregation mixture. Strikingly, NDGA-pretreated α-synuclein suppressed aggregation of naïve untreated aggregation-competent monomeric α-synuclein. Further, cyclized NDGA reduced α-synuclein-driven neurodegeneration in Caenorhabditis elegans. The cyclized NDGA analogs may serve as a platform for the development of small molecules that stabilize aggregation-resistant α-synuclein monomers without interfering with functional conformations yielding potential therapies for PD and related disorders

Uridylation and adenylation of RNAs

The posttranscriptional addition of nontemplated nucleotides to the 3′ ends of RNA molecules can have a significant impact on their stability and biological function. It has been recently discovered that nontemplated addition of uridine or adenosine to the 3′ ends of RNAs occurs in different organisms ranging from algae to humans, and on different kinds of RNAs, such as histone mRNAs, mRNA fragments, U6 snRNA, mature small RNAs and their precursors etc. These modifications may lead to different outcomes, such as increasing RNA decay, promoting or inhibiting RNA processing, or changing RNA activity. Growing pieces of evidence have revealed that such modifications can be RNA sequence-specific and subjected to temporal or spatial regulation in development. RNA tailing and its outcomes have been associated with human diseases such as cancer. Here, we review recent developments in RNA uridylation and adenylation and discuss the future prospects in this research area

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts during the First Advanced LIGO Observing Run and Implications for the Origin of GRB 150906B

We present the results of the search for gravitational waves (GWs) associated with γ-ray bursts detected during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO). We find no evidence of a GW signal for any of the 41 γ-ray bursts for which LIGO data are available with sufficient duration. For all γ-ray bursts, we place lower bounds on the distance to the source using the optimistic assumption that GWs with an energy of ${10}^{-2}{M}_{\odot }{c}^{2}$ were emitted within the $16$–$500$ Hz band, and we find a median 90% confidence limit of 71 Mpc at 150 Hz. For the subset of 19 short/hard γ-ray bursts, we place lower bounds on distance with a median 90% confidence limit of 90 Mpc for binary neutron star (BNS) coalescences, and 150 and 139 Mpc for neutron star–black hole coalescences with spins aligned to the orbital angular momentum and in a generic configuration, respectively. These are the highest distance limits ever achieved by GW searches. We also discuss in detail the results of the search for GWs associated with GRB 150906B, an event that was localized by the InterPlanetary Network near the local galaxy NGC 3313, which is at a luminosity distance of $54$ Mpc (z = 0.0124). Assuming the γ-ray emission is beamed with a jet half-opening angle $\leqslant 30^\circ$, we exclude a BNS and a neutron star–black hole in NGC 3313 as the progenitor of this event with confidence >99%. Further, we exclude such progenitors up to a distance of 102 Mpc and 170 Mpc, respectively