Jay Forrester

Jay Wright Forrester was an American engineer and management thinker. He founded System Dynamics, an approach based on computer modelling which arguably has done more than any other method to provide a practical and realistic analysis of change processes in systems. System Dynamics (SD) has been taken up across the world, initially by Forrester’s students and colleagues, but increasingly by a much wider community. It has had profound and influential applications in a range of fields, most prominently organisational management, urban planning and environmental policy. Forrester summed up his concerns and his understanding of SD in an ‘elevator pitch’ (a statement short enough to be spoken in an elevator ride) on an email list: System dynamics deals with how things change through time, which includes most of what most people find important. It uses computer simulation to take the knowledge we already have about details in the world around us and to show why our social and physical systems behave the way they do. System dynamics demonstrates how most of our own decision-making policies are the cause of the problems that we usually blame on others, and how to identify policies we can follow to improve our situation. (Forrester JW. System dynamics in the elevator. System-dynamics email list. https://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1787#p1964. Accessed 25 Sept 2019, 1997

Applications of Laboratory Technology in the Evaluation of the Risk of Rabies Transmissions by Biting Dogs and Cats

While rabies is not a common disease in domestic animal species of the United States, potential exposures to rabies in the form of bites are very common and increasing. A nationwide study conducted among general hospitals shows that 1 percent of emergency room visits are for animal bites, of which 80-90 percent are inflicted by the dog (Callaham 1980). This figure is conservative, as the study did not include pediatric hospitals, the bite of victims that progress only to a physician\u27s office, or those that receive no medical care at all. In Missouri alone, this study would infer about 1500 dog bites per year reaching only the general hospital. The number of dog and other animal bites across the country is unknown but may safely be assumed to be staggering in magnitude

Interaction of amyloid and tau on cortical microstructure in cognitively unimpaired adults

INTRODUCTION: Neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI), a multi-compartment diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) model, may be useful for detecting early cortical microstructural alterations in Alzheimer's disease prior to cognitive impairment. METHODS: Using neuroimaging (NODDI and T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker data (measured using Elecsys® CSF immunoassays) from 219 cognitively unimpaired participants, we tested the main and interactive effects of CSF amyloid beta (Aβ)42/Aβ40 and phosphorylated tau (p-tau) on cortical NODDI metrics and cortical thickness, controlling for age, sex, and apolipoprotein E ε4. RESULTS: We observed a significant CSF Aβ42/Aβ40 × p-tau interaction on cortical neurite density index (NDI), but not orientation dispersion index or cortical thickness. The directionality of these interactive effects indicated: (1) among individuals with lower CSF p-tau, greater amyloid burden was associated with higher cortical NDI; and (2) individuals with greater amyloid and p-tau burden had lower cortical NDI, consistent with cortical neurodegenerative changes. DISCUSSION: NDI is a particularly sensitive marker for early cortical changes that occur prior to gross atrophy or development of cognitive impairment

Neutralization Serotyping of BK Polyomavirus Infection in Kidney Transplant Recipients

BK polyomavirus (BKV or BKPyV) associated nephropathy affects up to 10% of kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). BKV isolates are categorized into four genotypes. It is currently unclear whether the four genotypes are also serotypes. To address this issue, we developed high-throughput serological assays based on antibody-mediated neutralization of BKV genotype I and IV reporter vectors (pseudoviruses). Neutralization-based testing of sera from mice immunized with BKV-I or BKV-IV virus-like particles (VLPs) or sera from naturally infected human subjects revealed that BKV-I specific serum antibodies are poorly neutralizing against BKV-IV and vice versa. The fact that BKV-I and BKV-IV are distinct serotypes was less evident in traditional VLP-based ELISAs. BKV-I and BKV-IV neutralization assays were used to examine BKV type-specific neutralizing antibody responses in KTRs at various time points after transplantation. At study entry, sera from 5% and 49% of KTRs showed no detectable neutralizing activity for BKV-I or BKV-IV neutralization, respectively. By one year after transplantation, all KTRs were neutralization seropositive for BKV-I, and 43% of the initially BKV-IV seronegative subjects showed evidence of acute seroconversion for BKV-IV neutralization. The results suggest a model in which BKV-IV-specific seroconversion reflects a de novo BKV-IV infection in KTRs who initially lack protective antibody responses capable of neutralizing genotype IV BKVs. If this model is correct, it suggests that pre-vaccinating prospective KTRs with a multivalent VLP-based vaccine against all BKV serotypes, or administration of BKV-neutralizing antibodies, might offer protection against graft loss or dysfunction due to BKV associated nephropathy

Materials Characterization Using Acoustic Nonlinearity Parameters and Harmonic Generation: Effects of Crystalline and Amorphous Structures

The importance of nonlinearity in the description of material behavior is gaining widespread attention. Nonlinearity plays a major, if not dominating, role in a number of material properties. For example, properties that are important in engineering design such as thermal expansion or the pressure dependence of optical refraction are inherently nonlinear [1]. New assembley techniques such as the use of ultrasonic gauges to determine the loading of critical fasteners depend upon nonlinear properties of the fasteners [2]. Areas of considerable fundamental interest in nonlinearity include lattice dynamics [3], radiation stress in solids [4,5], and nonlinear optics [6

Reproducibility of quantitative F-18-3'-deoxy-3'-fluorothymidine measurements using positron emission tomography

Positron emission tomography (PET) using F-18-3'-deoxy-3'-fluorothymidine ([F-18]FLT) allows noninvasive monitoring of tumour proliferation. For serial imaging in individual patients, good reproducibility is essential. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the reproducibility of quantitative [F-18]FLT measurements. Nine patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and six with head-and-neck cancer (HNC) underwent [F-18]FLT PET twice within 7 days prior to therapy. The maximum pixel value (SUVmax) and a threshold defined volume (SUV41%) were defined for all delineated lesions. The plasma to tumour transfer constant (K-i) was estimated using both Patlak graphical analysis and nonlinear regression (NLR). NLR was also used to estimate k(3), which, at least in theory, selectively reflects thymidine kinase 1 activity. The level of agreement between test and retest values was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and Bland-Altman analysis. All primary tumours and > 90% of clinically suspected locoregional metastases could be delineated. In total, 24 lesions were defined. NLR-derived K-i, Patlak-derived K-i, SUV41% and SUVmax showed excellent reproducibility with ICCs of 0.92, 0.95, 0.98 and 0.93, and SDs of 16%, 12%, 7% and 11%, respectively. Reproducibility was poor for k(3) with an ICC of 0.43 and SD of 38%. Quantitative [F-18]FLT measurements are reproducible in both NSCLC and HNC patients. When monitoring response in individual patients, changes of more than 15% in SUV41%, 20-25% in SUVmax and Patlak-derived K-i, and 32% in NLR3k-derived K-i are likely to represent treatment effect

Elevated tumour interleukin-1β is associated with systemic inflammation: a marker of reduced survival in gastro-oesophageal cancer

Systemic inflammation is associated with adverse prognosis cancer but its aetiology remains unclear. We investigated the expression of proinflammatory cytokines within normal mucosa from healthy controls and tumour tissue in cancer patients and related these levels with markers of systemic inflammation and with the presence of a tumour inflammatory infiltrate. Tissue was collected from 56 patients with gastro-oesophageal cancer and from 12 healthy controls. Tissue cytokine mRNA concentrations were measured by real-time PCR and tissue protein concentrations by cytometric bead array. The degree of chronic inflammatory cell infiltrate was recorded. Serum cytokine and acute phase protein concentrations (including C-reactive protein (CRP)) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Proinflammatory cytokines were significantly overexpressed (interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-8 and tumour necrosis factor-α) both at mRNA and protein levels in the cancer specimens compared with mucosa from controls. Interleukin-1β was expressed in greatest (10–100-fold) concentration and protein levels correlated significantly with systemic inflammation (CRP) (P=0.05, r=0.31). A chronic inflammatory infiltrate was observed in 75% of the cancer specimens and was associated with systemic inflammation (CRP: P=0.01). However, the presence of chronic inflammation per se was not associated with altered cytokine expression within the tumour. Both a chronic inflammatory infiltrate and systemic inflammation (CRP) were associated with reduced survival (P=0.05 and P=0.03, respectively). Tumour chronic inflammatory infiltrate and tumour tissue IL-1β overexpression are potential independent factors influencing systemic inflammation in oesophagogastric cancer patients

Architecture of androgen receptor pathways amplifying glucagon-like peptide-1 insulinotropic action in male pancreatic β cells

Male mice lacking the androgen receptor (AR) in pancreatic β cells exhibit blunted glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS), leading to hyperglycemia. Testosterone activates an extranuclear AR in β cells to amplify glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) insulinotropic action. Here, we examined the architecture of AR targets that regulate GLP-1 insulinotropic action in male β cells. Testosterone cooperates with GLP-1 to enhance cAMP production at the plasma membrane and endosomes via: (1) increased mitochondrial production of CO2, activating the HCO3--sensitive soluble adenylate cyclase; and (2) increased Gαs recruitment to GLP-1 receptor and AR complexes, activating transmembrane adenylate cyclase. Additionally, testosterone enhances GSIS in human islets via a focal adhesion kinase/SRC/phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/mammalian target of rapamycin complex 2 actin remodeling cascade. We describe the testosterone-stimulated AR interactome, transcriptome, proteome, and metabolome that contribute to these effects. This study identifies AR genomic and non-genomic actions that enhance GLP-1-stimulated insulin exocytosis in male β cells

Institutional Export Barriers on Exporters from Emerging Markets: Evidence from China

The emerging markets have become the increasingly important trading nations in the global economy. Given its significance to practitioners and policymakers, export barriers has been the popular topic in the international business studies. However, research about export barriers caused by the local institutions are under developed, though institutional voids and institutional inefficiency are reported as the major determinants for business development in emerging markets. This paper aims to fill in this gap by exploring the institutional export barriers in emerging markets. Based on existing studies on export barriers and institutional perspective, a conceptual framework is initially developed by separating formal and informal institutional export barriers. Then three specific institutional export barriers are identified, including government policy, weak legal system and informal and personal networks. In the meanwhile, this paper sheds light on how the institutional export barriers are developed and obstruct exporting in emerging markets