A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Open Access ArticleReliable estimates of future changes in extreme weather phenomena, such as tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds, are critical for climate change impact assessments and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. However, global and regional climate model outputs are often too coarse for direct use in these applications, with variables such as wind speed having truncated probability distributions compared to those of observations. This poses two problems: How canmodel-simulated variables best be adjusted to make themmore realistic? And how can such adjustments be used to make more reliable predictions of future changes in their distribution? This study investigates North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds from observations (1950- 2010) and regional climate model simulations (1995-2005 and 2045-55 at 12- and 36-km spatial resolutions). The wind speed distributions in these datasets are well represented by the Weibull distribution, albeit with different scale and shape parameters. A power-law transfer function is used to recalibrate the Weibull variables and obtain future projections of wind speeds. Two different strategies, bias correction and change factor, are tested by using 36-km model data to predict future 12-km model data (pseudo-observations). The strategies are also applied to the observations to obtain likely predictions of the future distributions of wind speeds. The strategies yield similar predictions of likely changes in the fraction of events within Saffir-Simpson categories-for example, an increase from 21% (1995-2005) to 27%-37% (2045-55) for category 3 or above events and an increase from 1.6% (1995- 2005) to 2.8%-9.8% (2045-55) for category 5 events. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by theWillis Research Network, the Research Program to Secure Energy for America, NSF EASM Grant S1048841, and the NCARWeather and Climate Assessment Science Program. We thank Sherrie Fredrick for extracting data, and Cindy Bruyère, James Done, and Ben Youngman for productive discussions that enhanced this research. We also thank Dr. Adam Monahan and one anonymous reviewer for their insightful comments and suggestions

BRIEF REPORT: Brief Instrument to Assess Geriatrics Knowledge of Surgical and Medical Subspecialty House Officers

Initiatives are underway to increase geriatrics training in nonprimary care disciplines. However, no validated instrument exists to measure geriatrics knowledge of house officers in surgical specialties and medical subspecialties. METHODS : A 23-item multiple-choice test emphasizing inpatient care and common geriatric syndromes was developed through expert panels and pilot testing, and administered to 305 residents and fellows at 4 institutions in surgical disciplines (25% of respondents), emergency medicine (29%), medicine subspecialties (19%), internal medicine (12%), and other disciplines (15%). RESULTS : Three items decreased internal reliability. The remaining 20 items covered 17 topic areas. Residents averaged 62% correct on the test. Internal consistency was appropriate (Cronbach's Α coefficient=0.60). Validity was supported by the use of expert panels to develop content, and by overall differences in scores by level of training ( P <.0001) and graded improvement in test performance, with 58%, 63%, 62%, and 69% correct responses among HO1, HO2, HO3, and HO4s, respectively. CONCLUSIONS : This reliable, valid measure of clinical geriatrics knowledge can be used by a wide variety of surgical and medical graduate medical education programs to guide curriculum reform or evaluate program performance to meet certification requirements. The instrument is now available on the web.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73902/1/j.1525-1497.2006.00433.x.pd

Inactivation of Basolateral Amygdala Specifically Eliminates Palatability-Related Information in Cortical Sensory Responses

Evidence indirectly implicates the amygdala as the primary processor of emotional information used by cortex to drive appropriate behavioral responses to stimuli. Taste provides an ideal system with which to test this hypothesis directly, as neurons in both basolateral amygdala (BLA) and gustatory cortex (GC)—anatomically interconnected nodes of the gustatory system—code the emotional valence of taste stimuli (i.e., palatability), in firing rate responses that progress similarly through “epochs.” The fact that palatability-related firing appears one epoch earlier in BLA than GC is broadly consistent with the hypothesis that such information may propagate from the former to the latter. Here, we provide evidence supporting this hypothesis, assaying taste responses in small GC single-neuron ensembles before, during, and after temporarily inactivating BLA in awake rats. BLA inactivation (BLAx) changed responses in 98% of taste-responsive GC neurons, altering the entirety of every taste response in many neurons. Most changes involved reductions in firing rate, but regardless of the direction of change, the effect of BLAx was epoch-specific: while firing rates were changed, the taste specificity of responses remained stable; information about taste palatability, however, which normally resides in the “Late” epoch, was reduced in magnitude across the entire GC sample and outright eliminated in most neurons. Only in the specific minority of neurons for which BLAx enhanced responses did palatability specificity survive undiminished. Our data therefore provide direct evidence that BLA is a necessary component of GC gustatory processing, and that cortical palatability processing in particular is, in part, a function of BLA activity. Evidence indirectly implicates the amygdala as the primary processor of emotional information used by cortex to drive appropriate behavioral responses to stimuli. Taste provides an ideal system with which to test this hypothesis directly, as neurons in both basolateral amygdala (BLA) and gustatory cortex (GC)—anatomically interconnected nodes of the gustatory system—code the emotional valence of taste stimuli (i.e., palatability), in firing rate responses that progress similarly through “epochs.” The fact that palatability-related firing appears one epoch earlier in BLA than GC is broadly consistent with the hypothesis that such information may propagate from the former to the latter. Here, we provide evidence supporting this hypothesis, assaying taste responses in small GC single-neuron ensembles before, during, and after temporarily inactivating BLA in awake rats. BLA inactivation (BLAx) changed responses in 98% of taste-responsive GC neurons, altering the entirety of every taste response in many neurons. Most changes involved reductions in firing rate, but regardless of the direction of change, the effect of BLAx was epoch-specific: while firing rates were changed, the taste specificity of responses remained stable; information about taste palatability, however, which normally resides in the “Late” epoch, was reduced in magnitude across the entire GC sample and outright eliminated in most neurons. Only in the specific minority of neurons for which BLAx enhanced responses did palatability specificity survive undiminished. Our data therefore provide direct evidence that BLA is a necessary component of GC gustatory processing, and that cortical palatability processing in particular is, in part, a function of BLA activity

Collective Quartics from Simple Groups

This article classifies Little Higgs models that have collective quartic couplings. There are two classes of collective quartics: Special Cosets and Special Quartics. After taking into account dangerous singlets, the smallest Special Coset models are SU(5)/SO(5) and SU(6)/Sp(6). The smallest Special Quartic model is SU(5)/SU(3) x SU(2) x U(1) and has not previously been considered as a candidate Little Higgs model.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figure

Addressing accountability in highly autonomous virtual assistants

Building from a survey specifically developed to address the rising concerns of highly autonomous virtual assistants; this paper presents a multi-level taxonomy of accountability levels specifically adapted to virtual assistants in the context of Human-Human-Interaction (HHI). Based on research findings, the authors recommend the integration of the variable of accountability as capital in the development of future applications around highly automated systems. This element inserts a sense of balance in terms of integrity between users and developers enhancing trust in the interactive process. Ongoing work is being dedicated to further understand to which extent different contexts affect accountability in virtual assistants

Flavor in Minimal Conformal Technicolor

We construct a complete, realistic, and natural UV completion of minimal conformal technicolor that explains the origin of quark and lepton masses and mixing angles. As in "bosonic technicolor", we embed conformal technicolor in a supersymmetric theory, with supersymmetry broken at a high scale. The exchange of heavy scalar doublets generates higher-dimension interactions between technifermions and quarks and leptons that give rise to quark and lepton masses at the TeV scale. Obtaining a sufficiently large top quark mass requires strong dynamics at the supersymmetry breaking scale in both the top and technicolor sectors. This is natural if the theory above the supersymmetry breaking also has strong conformal dynamics. We present two models in which the strong top dynamics is realized in different ways. In both models, constraints from flavor-changing effects can be easily satisfied. The effective theory below the supersymmetry breaking scale is minimal conformal technicolor with an additional light technicolor gaugino. We argue that this light gaugino is a general consequence of conformal technicolor embedded into a supersymmetric theory. If the gaugino has mass below the TeV scale it will give rise to an additional pseudo Nambu-Goldstone boson that is observable at the LHC.Comment: 37 pages; references adde

Multisensory and Motor Representations in Rat Oral Somatosensory Cortex

Abstract In mammals, a complex array of oral sensors assess the taste, temperature and haptic properties of food. Although the representation of taste has been extensively studied in the gustatory cortex, it is unclear how the somatosensory cortex encodes information about the properties of oral stimuli. Moreover, it is poorly understood how different oral sensory modalities are integrated and how sensory responses are translated into oral motor actions. To investigate whether oral somatosensory cortex processes food-related sensations and movements, we performed in vivo whole-cell recordings and motor mapping experiments in rats. Neurons in oral somatosensory cortex showed robust post-synaptic and sparse action potential responses to air puffs. Membrane potential showed that cold water evoked larger responses than room temperature or hot water. Most neurons showed no clear tuning of responses to bitter, sweet and neutral gustatory stimuli. Finally, motor mapping experiments with histological verification revealed an initiation of movements related to food consumption behavior, such as jaw opening and tongue protrusions. We conclude that somatosensory cortex: (i) provides a representation of the temperature of oral stimuli, (ii) does not systematically encode taste information and (iii) influences orofacial movements related to food consummatory behavior

An empirical investigation of the influence of collaboration in Finance on article impact

We investigate the impact of collaborative research in academic Finance literature to find out whether and to what extent collaboration leads to higher impact articles (6,667 articles across 2001-2007 extracted from the Web of Science). Using the top 5 % as ranked by the 4-year citation counts following publication, we also follow related secondary research questions such as the relationships between article impact and author impact; collaboration and average author impact of an article; and, the nature of geographic collaboration. Key findings indicate: collaboration does lead to articles of higher impact but there is no significant marginal value for collaboration beyond three authors; high impact articles are not monopolized by high impact authors; collaboration and the average author impact of high-impact articles are positively associated, where collaborative articles have a higher mean author impact in comparison to single-author articles; and collaboration among the authors of high impact articles is mostly cross-institutional

Minimal Conformal Technicolor and Precision Electroweak Tests

We study the minimal model of conformal technicolor, an SU(2) gauge theory near a strongly coupled conformal fixed point, with conformal symmetry softly broken by technifermion mass terms. Conformal symmetry breaking triggers chiral symmetry breaking in the pattern SU(4) -> Sp(4), which gives rise to a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson that can act as a composite Higgs boson. The top quark is elementary, and the top and electroweak gauge loop contributions to the Higgs mass are cut off entirely by Higgs compositeness. In particular, the model requires no top partners and no "little Higgs" mechanism. A nontrivial vacuum alignment results from the interplay of the top loop and technifermion mass terms. The composite Higgs mass is completely determined by the top loop, in the sense that m_h/m_t is independent of the vacuum alignment and is computable by a strong-coupling calculation. There is an additional composite pseudoscalar A with mass larger than m_h and suppressed direct production at LHC. We discuss the electroweak fit in this model in detail. Corrections to Z -> bb and the T parameter from the top sector are suppressed by the enhanced Sp(4) custodial symmetry. Even assuming that the strong contribution to the S parameter is positive and usuppressed, a good electroweak fit can be obtained for v/f ~ 0.25, where v and f are the electroweak and chiral symmetry breaking scales respectively. This requires fine tuning at the 10% level.Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures; v2: updated precision electroweak fi