Pretest probability assessment derived from attribute matching

BACKGROUND: Pretest probability (PTP) assessment plays a central role in diagnosis. This report compares a novel attribute-matching method to generate a PTP for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We compare the new method with a validated logistic regression equation (LRE). METHODS: Eight clinical variables (attributes) were chosen by classification and regression tree analysis of a prospectively collected reference database of 14,796 emergency department (ED) patients evaluated for possible ACS. For attribute matching, a computer program identifies patients within the database who have the exact profile defined by clinician input of the eight attributes. The novel method was compared with the LRE for ability to produce PTP estimation <2% in a validation set of 8,120 patients evaluated for possible ACS and did not have ST segment elevation on ECG. 1,061 patients were excluded prior to validation analysis because of ST-segment elevation (713), missing data (77) or being lost to follow-up (271). RESULTS: In the validation set, attribute matching produced 267 unique PTP estimates [median PTP value 6%, 1(st)–3(rd )quartile 1–10%] compared with the LRE, which produced 96 unique PTP estimates [median 24%, 1(st)–3(rd )quartile 10–30%]. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.82) for the attribute matching curve and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.77) for LRE. The attribute matching system categorized 1,670 (24%, 95% CI = 23–25%) patients as having a PTP < 2.0%; 28 developed ACS (1.7% 95% CI = 1.1–2.4%). The LRE categorized 244 (4%, 95% CI = 3–4%) with PTP < 2.0%; four developed ACS (1.6%, 95% CI = 0.4–4.1%). CONCLUSION: Attribute matching estimated a very low PTP for ACS in a significantly larger proportion of ED patients compared with a validated LRE

Lifestyle variables and the risk of myocardial infarction in the General Practice Research Database

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The primary objective of this study is to estimate the association between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of first acute myocardial infarction (AMI). As a secondary objective, we considered the association between other lifestyle variables, smoking and heavy alcohol use, and AMI risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study was conducted in the general practice research database (GPRD) which is a database based on general practitioner records and is a representative sample of the United Kingdom population. We matched cases of first AMI as identified by diagnostic codes with up to 10 controls between January 1^st, 2001 and December 31^st, 2005 using incidence density sampling. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 19,353 cases of first AMI which were matched on index date, GPRD practice and age to 192,821 controls. There was a modest amount of missing data in the database, and the patients with missing data had different risks than those with recorded values. We adjusted our analysis for each lifestyle variable jointly and also for age, sex, and number of hospitalizations in the past year. Although a record of underweight (BMI <18.0 kg/m²) did not alter the risk for AMI (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.00; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87–1.11) when compared with normal BMI (18.0–24.9 kg/m²), obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m²) predicted an increased risk (adjusted OR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.35–1.47). A history of smoking also predicted an increased risk of AMI (adjusted OR: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.75–1.87) as did heavy alcohol use (adjusted OR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.06–1.26).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study illustrates that obesity, smoking and heavy alcohol use, as recorded during routine care by a general practitioner, are important predictors of an increased risk of a first AMI. In contrast, low BMI does not increase the risk of a first AMI.</p

Pre-hospital ECG for acute coronary syndrome in urban India: A cost-effectiveness analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in India have increased pre-hospital delay and low rates of thrombolytic reperfusion. Use of ECG could reduce pre-hospital delay among patients who first present to a general practitioner (GP). We assessed whether performing ECG on patients with acute chest pain would improve long-term outcomes and be cost-effective.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We created a Markov model of urban Indian patients presenting to a GP with acute chest pain to compare a GP's performing an ECG versus not performing one. Variables describing the accuracy of a GP's referral decision in chest pain and ACS, ACS treatment patterns, the effectiveness of thrombolytic reperfusion, and costs were derived from Indian data where available and other developed world studies. The model was used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the intervention in 2007 US dollars per quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Under baseline assumptions, the ECG strategy cost an additional $12.65 per QALY gained compared to no ECG. Sensitivity analyses around the cost of the ECG, cost of thrombolytic, and referral accuracy of the GP yielded ICERs for the ECG strategy ranging between cost-saving and$1124/QALY. All results indicated the intervention is cost-effective under current World Health Organization recommendations.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>While direct presentation to the hospital with acute chest pain is preferable, in urban Indian patients presenting first to a GP, an ECG performed by the GP is a cost-effective strategy to reduce disability and mortality. This strategy should be clinically studied and considered until improved emergency transport services are available.</p

Measurement of coronary calcium scores or exercise testing as initial screening tool in asymptomatic subjects with ST-T changes on the resting ECG: an evaluation study

Background: Asymptomatic subjects at intermediate coronary risk may need diagnostic testing for risk stratification. Both measurement of coronary calcium scores and exercise testing are well established tests for this purpose. However, it is not clear which test should be preferred as initial diagnostic test. We evaluated the prevalence of documented coronary artery disease (CAD) according to calcium scores and exercise test results. Methods: Asymptomatic subjects with ST-T changes on a rest ECG were selected from the population based PREVEND cohort study and underwent measurement of calcium scores by electron beam tomography and exercise testing. With calcium scores ≥10 or a positive exercise test, myocardial perfusion imaging (MPS) or coronary angiography (CAG) was recommended. The primary endpoint was documented obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis). Results: Of 153 subjects included, 149 subjects completed the study protocol. Calcium scores ≥400, 100-399, 10-99 and <10 were found in 16, 29, 18 and 86 subjects and the primary endpoint was present in 11 (69%), 12 (41%), 0 (0%) and 1 (1%) subjects, respectively. A positive, nondiagnostic and negative exercise test was present in 33, 27 and 89 subjects and the primary endpoint was present in 13 (39%), 5 (19%) and 6 (7%) subjects, respectively. Receiver operator characteristics analysis showed that the area under the curve, as measure of diagnostic yield, of 0.91 (95% CI 0.84-0.97) for calcium scores was superior to 0.74 (95% CI 0.64-0.83) for exercise testing (p = 0.004). Conclusion: Measurement of coronary calciu

A study to derive a clinical decision rule for triage of emergency department patients with chest pain: design and methodology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chest pain is the second most common chief complaint in North American emergency departments. Data from the U.S. suggest that 2.1% of patients with acute myocardial infarction and 2.3% of patients with unstable angina are misdiagnosed, with slightly higher rates reported in a recent Canadian study (4.6% and 6.4%, respectively). Information obtained from the history, 12-lead ECG, and a single set of cardiac enzymes is unable to identify patients who are safe for early discharge with sufficient sensitivity. The 2007 ACC/AHA guidelines for UA/NSTEMI do not identify patients at low risk for adverse cardiac events who can be safely discharged without provocative testing. As a result large numbers of low risk patients are triaged to chest pain observation units and undergo provocative testing, at significant cost to the healthcare system. Clinical decision rules use clinical findings (history, physical exam, test results) to suggest a diagnostic or therapeutic course of action. Currently no methodologically robust clinical decision rule identifies patients safe for early discharge.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>The goal of this study is to derive a clinical decision rule which will allow emergency physicians to accurately identify patients with chest pain who are safe for early discharge. The study will utilize a prospective cohort design. Standardized clinical variables will be collected on all patients at least 25 years of age complaining of chest pain prior to provocative testing. Variables strongly associated with the composite outcome acute myocardial infarction, revascularization, or death will be further analyzed with multivariable analysis to derive the clinical rule. Specific aims are to: i) apply standardized clinical assessments to patients with chest pain, incorporating results of early cardiac testing; ii) determine the inter-observer reliability of the clinical information; iii) determine the statistical association between the clinical findings and the composite outcome; and iv) use multivariable analysis to derive a highly sensitive clinical decision rule to guide triage decisions.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The study will derive a highly sensitive clinical decision rule to identify low risk patients safe for early discharge. This will improve patient care, lower healthcare costs, and enhance flow in our busy and overcrowded emergency departments.</p

Pemphigus autoimmunity: Hypotheses and realities

The goal of contemporary research in pemphigus vulgaris and pemphigus foliaceus is to achieve and maintain clinical remission without corticosteroids. Recent advances of knowledge on pemphigus autoimmunity scrutinize old dogmas, resolve controversies, and open novel perspectives for treatment. Elucidation of intimate mechanisms of keratinocyte detachment and death in pemphigus has challenged the monopathogenic explanation of disease immunopathology. Over 50 organ-specific and non-organ-specific antigens can be targeted by pemphigus autoimmunity, including desmosomal cadherins and other adhesion molecules, PERP cholinergic and other cell membrane (CM) receptors, and mitochondrial proteins. The initial insult is sustained by the autoantibodies to the cell membrane receptor antigens triggering the intracellular signaling by Src, epidermal growth factor receptor kinase, protein kinases A and C, phospholipase C, mTOR, p38 MAPK, JNK, other tyrosine kinases, and calmodulin that cause basal cell shrinkage and ripping desmosomes off the CM. Autoantibodies synergize with effectors of apoptotic and oncotic pathways, serine proteases, and inflammatory cytokines to overcome the natural resistance and activate the cell death program in keratinocytes. The process of keratinocyte shrinkage/detachment and death via apoptosis/oncosis has been termed apoptolysis to emphasize that it is triggered by the same signal effectors and mediated by the same cell death enzymes. The natural course of pemphigus has improved due to a substantial progress in developing of the steroid-sparing therapies combining the immunosuppressive and direct anti-acantholytic effects. Further elucidation of the molecular mechanisms mediating immune dysregulation and apoptolysis in pemphigus should improve our understanding of disease pathogenesis and facilitate development of steroid-free treatment of patients