COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts

Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest

Mind your step: the effects of mobile phone use on gaze behavior in stair climbing

Stair walking is a hazardous activity and a common cause of fatal and non-fatal falls. Previous studies have assessed the role of eye movements in stair walking by asking people to repeatedly go up and down stairs in quiet and controlled conditions, while the role of peripheral vision was examined by giving participants specific fixation instructions or working memory tasks. We here extend this research to stair walking in a natural environment with other people present on the stairs and a now common secondary task: Using one's mobile phone. Results show that using the mobile phone strongly draws one's attention away from the stairs, but that the distribution of gaze locations away from the phone is little influenced by using one's phone. Phone use also increased the time needed to walk the stairs, but handrail use remained low. These results indicate that limited foveal vision suffices for adequate stair walking in normal environments, but that mobile phone use has a strong influence on attention, which may pose problems when unexpected obstacles are encountered

Memory-experience gap in early adolescents' happiness reports

Studies among adult populations show that estimates of how happy one has felt in the past tend to be more positive than average happiness as assessed using time sampling techniques. This ‘memory-experience gap’ is attributed to cognitive biases, among which fading affect bias. In this paper we report a study among 352 pupils of a secondary school in the Netherlands. These youngsters reported subsequently: 1) how happy they had felt yesterday, 2) how happy they had felt during the last month, 3) what they had done the previous day and 4) how the

Motor Vehicle Crashes in Diabetic Patients with Tight Glycemic Control: A Population-based Case Control Analysis

Using a population-based case control analysis, Donald Redelmeier and colleagues found that tighter glycemic control, as measured by the HbA1c, is associated with an increased risk of a motor vehicle crash

Variation in Prices Charged to Patients for Specialty Intraocular Lenses Inserted during Universally Covered Cataract Surgery

Patients often pay for specialty intraocular lenses (IOLs) for cataract surgery covered by universal insurance. This practice creates the potential for inequitable pricing where the medical service provider is also the retailer. We measured the variation in prices between cataract surgeons for the same IOL and associated testing.We telephoned every cataract surgeon in Ontario, Canada, and asked their price for the most common type of specialty IOL as a prospective patient. We measured the total prices quoted and variation between providers.We contacted 404 ophthalmologists. There were 256 that performed cataract surgery but 127 offered the most commonly employed specialty IOL and would provide a price to patients over the telephone. We obtained prices from all 127 ophthalmologists. Prices for the same lens and associated testing varied substantially between ophthalmologists from $358 to$2790 (median $615, interquartile range$528-$915). There was variation in all components of the total out-of-pocket price, including the price for the IOL itself, charges for uninsured eye measurements, and non-specific supplemental fees.Although cataract surgery is covered by public health insurance, some ophthalmologists charge much more than others for the same specialty IOL and associated testing. Greater access to price information and better regulatory control could help ensure patients receive fair value for out-of-pocket health expenses

Road Trauma in Teenage Male Youth with Childhood Disruptive Behavior Disorders: A Population Based Analysis

Donald Redelmeier and colleagues conducted a population-based case-control study of 16-19-year-old males hospitalized for road trauma or appendicitis and showed that disruptive behavior disorders explained a significant amount of road trauma in this group

Interpreting the results of patient reported outcome measures in clinical trials: The clinician's perspective

This article deals with the problem of interpreting health-related quality of life (HRQL) outcomes in clinical trials. First, we will briefly describe how dichotomization and item response theory can facilitate interpretation. Based on examples from the medical literature for the interpretation of HRQL scores we will show that dichotomies may help clinicians understand information provided by HRQL instruments in RCTs. They can choose thresholds to calculate proportions of patients benefiting based on absolute scores or change scores. For example, clinicians interpreting clinical trial results could consider the difference in the proportion of patients who achieve a mean score of 50 before and after an intervention on a scale from 1 to 100. For the change score approach, they could consider the proportion of patients who have changed by a score of 5 or more. Finally, they can calculate the proportion of patients benefiting and transform these numbers into a number needed to treat or natural frequencies. Second, we will describe in more detail an approach to the interpretation of HRQL scores based on the minimal important difference (MID) and proportions. The MID is the smallest difference in score in the outcome of interest that informed patients or informed proxies perceive as important, either beneficial or harmful, and that would lead the patient or clinician to consider a change in the management. Any change in management will depend on the downsides, including cost and inconvenience, associated with the intervention. Investigators can help with the interpretation of HRQL scores by determining the MID of an HRQL instrument and provide mean differences in relation to the MID. For instance, for an MID of 0.5 on a seven point scale investigators could provide the mean change on the instrument as well as the proportion of patients with scores greater than the MID. Thus, there are several steps investigators can take to facilitate this process to help bringing HRQL information closer to the bedside

Effects of systematic asymmetric discounting on physician-patient interactions: a theoretical framework to explain poor compliance with lifestyle counseling

BACKGROUND: This study advances the use of a utility model to model physician-patient interactions from the perspectives of physicians and patients. PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: In cases involving acute care, patient counseling involves a relatively straightforward transfer of information from the physician to a patient. The patient has less information than the physician on the impact the condition and its treatment have on utility. In decisions involving lifestyle changes, the patient may have more information than the physician on his/her utility of consumption; moreover, differences in discounting future health may contribute significantly to differences between patients' preferences and physicians' recommendations. TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: The expectation of differences in internal discount rate between patients and their physicians is discussed. IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS: This utility model provides a conceptual basis for the finding that educational approaches alone may not effect changes in patient behavior and suggests other economic variables that could be targeted in the attempt to produce healthier behavior

Interval exercise versus continuous exercise in patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease – study protocol for a randomised controlled trial [ISRCTN11611768]

BACKGROUND: Physical exercise has become a cornerstone of management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) because it leads to clinically relevant improvements of exercise capacity and health-related quality of life (HRQL). Despite the scarcity of randomised trials directly comparing exercise protocols, current guidelines recommend high intensity continuous exercise for lower extremities as the probably most effective exercise modality. However, for patients admitted to inpatient respiratory rehabilitation programmes, it is often difficult to initiate such an exercise programme because they are severely limited by dyspnoea and leg fatigue and therefore unable to perform continuous exercise at higher intensities and for periods longer than 30 minutes. Interval exercise may be an attractive alternative for these COPD patients because it allows high intensity exercise with recovery periods. The aim of this study is to assess if interval exercise compared to high intensity continuous exercise is not of inferior effectiveness in terms of HRQL and exercise capacity improvements but associated with better exercise tolerance in patients with moderate to severe COPD at the beginning of a respiratory rehabilitation. METHODS/DESIGN: We will assign patients with moderately severe to severe COPD to either continuous exercise or interval exercise using a stratified randomisation. Patients will follow 12–15 exercise sessions during a comprehensive inpatient respiratory rehabilitation. Primary end point for effectiveness is HRQL as measured by the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ) two weeks after the end of rehabilitation and secondary endpoints include additional clinical outcomes such as functional exercise capacity, other HRQL measures, patients' experience of physical exercise as well as physiological measures of the effects of physical exercise such as cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Including expected drop-outs, we will need 52 patients per group to show differences corresponding to the minimal clinically important difference of the CRQ. Outcome assessors and investigators involved in data analysis will be blinded to group assignment until analyses have been carried out. DISCUSSION: Clinicians and the scientific community need evidence on the benefits and tolerance of exercise protocols available in clinical practice. The proposed trial will provide important and needed data on interval and continuous exercise for decision making in clinical practice