Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model

The severity and timing of seasonal malaria epidemics is strongly linked with temperature and rainfall. Advance warning of meteorological conditions from seasonal climate models can therefore potentially anticipate unusually strong epidemic events, building resilience and adapting to possible changes in the frequency of such events. Here we present validation of a process-based, dynamic malaria model driven by hindcasts from a state-of-the-art seasonal climate model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We validate the climate and malaria models against observed meteorological and incidence data for Botswana over the period 1982–2006; the longest record of observed incidence data which has been used to validate a modeling system of this kind. We consider the impact of climate model biases, the relationship between climate and epidemiological predictability and the potential for skillful malaria forecasts. Forecast skill is demonstrated for upper tercile malaria incidence for the Botswana malaria season (January–May), using forecasts issued at the start of November; the forecast system anticipates six out of the seven upper tercile malaria seasons in the observational period. The length of the validation time series gives confidence in the conclusion that it is possible to make reliable forecasts of seasonal malaria risk, forming a key part of a health early warning system for Botswana and contributing to efforts to adapt to climate change

Hybrid architecture for shallow accumulation mode AlGaAs/GaAs heterostructures with epitaxial gates

Accumulation mode devices with epitaxially grown gates have excellent electrical stability due to the absence of dopant impurities and surface states. We overcome typical fabrication issues associated with epitaxially gated structures (e.g., gate leakage and high contact resistance) by using separate gates to control the electron densities in the Ohmic and Hall bar regions. This hybrid gate architecture opens up a way to make ultrastable nanoscale devices where the separation between the surface gates and the 2D electron gas is small. In this work, we demonstrate that the hybrid devices made from the same wafer have reproducible electrical characteristics, with identical mobility and density traces over a large range of 2D densities. In addition, thermal cycling does not influence the measured electrical characteristics. As a demonstration of concept, we have fabricated a hybrid single-electron transistor on a shallow (50 nm) AlGaAs/GaAs heterostructure that shows clear Coulomb blockade oscillations in the low temperature conductance.This project was supported by the Australian Government under the Australia-India Strategic Research Fund and by the Australian Research Council (ARC) DP scheme. A.R.H. acknowledges an ARC Outstanding Researcher Award. Devices were fabricated using the facilities at the NSW Node of the Australian National Fabrication Facility (ANFF). J.R., A.L., and A.D.W. acknowledge support from Mercur Pr-2013-0001, BMBF-Q.com-H 16KIS0109, and DFH/UFA CDFA-05-06.Copyright (2015) American Institute of Physics. This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the American Institute of Physics. The following article appeared in MacLeod SJ, See AM, Hamilton AR, Farrer I, Ritchie DA, Ritzmann J, Ludwig A, Wieck AD, Applied Physics Letters 106, 012105 (2015) and may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4905210

Comparison of Two Porcine-Derived Materials for Repairing Abdominal Wall Defects in Rats

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare the mechanical properties, host responses and incorporation of porcine small intestine submucosa (PSIS) and porcine acellular dermal matrix (PADM) in a rat model of abdominal wall defect repair. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prior to implantation, PSIS and PADM were prepared and evaluated in terms of structure and mechanical properties. Full-thickness abdominal wall defects were created in 50 Sprague-Dawley rats, and were repaired using either PSIS or PADM. Rats were sacrificed 1, 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks post-repair and examined for herniation, infection, adhesions, contraction, and changes in the thickness and strength of the tissues incorporated at the defect sites. Histopathology and immunohistochemistry were performed to analyze inflammatory responses, collagen deposition and vascularization. RESULTS: PADM showed more dense collagen deposition and stronger mechanical properties than PSIS prior to implantation (P<0.01). However, the mechanical properties observed after integration with the surrounding native tissues was similar for PADM and PSIS. Both PADM and PSIS showed significant contraction by week 12. However, PADM tissue induced less adhesion and increased in thickness more slowly, and showed less infiltration by foreign giant cells, polymorphonuclear cells, and mononuclear cells. Improved remodeling of host tissue was observed after PSIS implantation, which was apparent from the orientation of bands of fibrous connective tissue, intermixed with newly formed blood vessels by Week 12. CONCLUSION: PSIS showed weaker mechanical properties prior to implantation. However, after implantation PSIS induced more pronounced host responses and showed better incorporation into host tissues than PADM

Prospective mental imagery as its link with anxiety and depression in prisoners

Mental imagery is known to play a key role in the development and maintenance of depression and anxiety. Prisoners commonly experience psychological distress, but interventions to address this are currently lacking. We aimed to examine the link between prospective mental imagery and anxiety and depression among prisoners. One hundred twenty-three male prisoners from a Category C prison in southwest England participated in the study. They completed the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and the General Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7) to measure whether they experience depression and/or anxiety symptoms. Furthermore, they completed additional questionnaires to evaluate their prospective mental imagery. Results showed that 67.5% of prisoners presented with more depression symptoms and 27.7% with more anxiety symptoms. Supporting earlier findings, our data revealed that some dimensions of prospective mental imagery were significantly related with increased anxiety and depression symptoms in prisoners. Namely, intrusive negative personally relevant imagery was a positive predictor and likelihood of positive events a negative predictor of both anxiety and depression symptoms. The perceived likelihood of negative events was a positive predictor of depression. Intrusive verbal thought was a positive predictor of anxiety. The obtained results suggest the need to develop interventions not only targeting the reduction of prospective negative imagery but also the enhancement of positive mental imagery

Myeloma: Patient accounts of their pathways to diagnosis

Background: Pathways to myeloma diagnosis can be prolonged, and are often preceded by multiple GP consultations and emergency presentation. This is the first qualitative study to examine events leading to diagnosis by asking patients about their experiences during this time. Methods: Set within a UK population-based cohort, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 myeloma patients with varying characteristics and pathways, 12 of whom invited their relatives to take part. Interviews were audio-recorded and qualitative analysis undertaken. Results: Pre-diagnostic awareness of myeloma was minimal. Disease onset was typically described as gradual, and health changes vague but progressive, with increasing loss of function. A wide range of symptoms was reported, with the similarity of these to self-limiting conditions failing to raise suspicion of myeloma among patients and GPs. Patients tended to normalise symptoms at first, although all eventually sought GP advice. GPs often initially suggested benign diagnoses, which were sometimes only revised after multiple consultations with persistent/worsening symptoms. Referrals were made to various hospital specialities, and haematology if associated with abnormal blood tests suggestive of myeloma. Once in secondary care, progress towards diagnosis was generally rapid. Conclusions: Accounts confirmed that pathways to diagnosis could be difficult, largely due to the way myeloma presents, and how symptoms are interpreted and managed by patients and GPs. Recognition of ‘normal’ health and consultation patterns for the individual could promote appropriate help-seeking and timely referral when changes occur, and may be more effective than raising awareness about the myriad of potential symptoms associated with this disease

Feminist health psychology and abortion : towards a politics of transversal relations of commonality

In 1992 Speckhard and Rue argued in the Journal of Social Issues for the recognition of a diagnostic category, post-abortion syndrome (PAS). This term was first used in 1981 by Vincent Rue in testimony to the American Congress, but was only formalised in a published paper a decade later. Speckhard and Rue (1992) posit that abortion is a psychosocial stressor that may cause mild distress through to severe trauma, creating the need for a continuum of categories, these being post-abortion distress, post-abortion syndrome and post-abortion psychosis. PAS, which is the main focus of their paper, and which has taken root in some professional language as well as lay anti-abortion discourse, is described as a type of post-traumatic stress disorder

The small GTPase Rab29 is a common regulator of immune synapse assembly and ciliogenesis

Acknowledgements We wish to thank Jorge Galán, Gregory Pazour, Derek Toomre, Giuliano Callaini, Joel Rosenbaum, Alessandra Boletta and Francesco Blasi for generously providing reagents and for productive discussions, and Sonia Grassini for technical assistance. The work was carried out with the financial support of Telethon (GGP11021) and AIRC.Peer reviewedPostprin

Investigation of attentional bias in obsessive compulsive disorder with and without depression in visual search

Copyright: © 2013 Morein-Zamir et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedWhether Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) is associated with an increased attentional bias to emotive stimuli remains controversial. Additionally, it is unclear whether comorbid depression modulates abnormal emotional processing in OCD. This study examined attentional bias to OC-relevant scenes using a visual search task. Controls, non-depressed and depressed OCD patients searched for their personally selected positive images amongst their negative distractors, and vice versa. Whilst the OCD groups were slower than healthy individuals in rating the images, there were no group differences in the magnitude of negative bias to concern-related scenes. A second experiment employing a common set of images replicated the results on an additional sample of OCD patients. Although there was a larger bias to negative OC-related images without pre-exposure overall, no group differences in attentional bias were observed. However, OCD patients subsequently rated the images more slowly and more negatively, again suggesting post-attentional processing abnormalities. The results argue against a robust attentional bias in OCD patients, regardless of their depression status and speak to generalized difficulties disengaging from negative valence stimuli. Rather, post-attentional processing abnormalities may account for differences in emotional processing in OCD.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio