Bayesian modelling reveals differences in long-term trends in the harvest of native and introduced species by recreational hunters in Australia

Context: Little is known about wildlife harvesting by licensed recreational hunters in Australia, where both native and introduced species are hunted. It is important to understand harvest trends to assess sustainability for native species and implications for population control of introduced species. Aim: The aim of this study was to analyse trends in hunter participation, activity and efficiency, and wildlife harvest, including effects of climate, in Victoria, Australia, for three game species groups: introduced deer, native waterfowl (ducks) and one native grassland species, stubble quail (Coturnix pectoralis). Methods: Telephone surveys of a random sample of licenced Victorian hunters were performed annually from 2009 to 2019. Hunters were asked to quantify their hunting effort and the number of animals harvested. The respondents’ answers were analysed to estimate measures of hunter success, activity and efficiency. Bayesian modelling was applied to these data, accounting for changes over time, differences between survey periods for all licence types, and random effects for over-dispersion. The effect of climate on game bird hunter activity and harvest was estimated, as measured by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results: Over 11 years, annual deer harvest (all species) increased exponentially, at a mean annual rate of 17% (95% credible interval: 14–21%), and the number of deer hunters increased at 8% (5–11%). In contrast, for ducks and stubble quail, hunter numbers remained relatively unchanged, with no evidence of consistent change to total harvests over time, unrelated to changes in environmental conditions or regulations. The annual duck harvest was influenced by ENSO and hunting regulations. The annual stubble quail harvest exhibited ‘boom-and-bust’ dynamics, with an exceptionally large harvest immediately after a La Niña season. Conclusions: Long-term monitoring of harvest trends in south-eastern Australia revealed stark differences between introduced deer and native birds: harvest of deer increased rapidly whereas equivalent rates for game birds were either stable or declining. Seasonal effects had a strong influence on game bird harvest. Environmental and regulatory conditions were influential for harvest outcomes for ducks and stubble quail. Implications: This study filled a key knowledge gap around managing harvesting of game species, but increased scrutiny is warranted in this field

A Quantum-Bayesian Route to Quantum-State Space

In the quantum-Bayesian approach to quantum foundations, a quantum state is viewed as an expression of an agent's personalist Bayesian degrees of belief, or probabilities, concerning the results of measurements. These probabilities obey the usual probability rules as required by Dutch-book coherence, but quantum mechanics imposes additional constraints upon them. In this paper, we explore the question of deriving the structure of quantum-state space from a set of assumptions in the spirit of quantum Bayesianism. The starting point is the representation of quantum states induced by a symmetric informationally complete measurement or SIC. In this representation, the Born rule takes the form of a particularly simple modification of the law of total probability. We show how to derive key features of quantum-state space from (i) the requirement that the Born rule arises as a simple modification of the law of total probability and (ii) a limited number of additional assumptions of a strong Bayesian flavor.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Foundations of Physics; this is a condensation of the argument in arXiv:0906.2187v1 [quant-ph], with special attention paid to making all assumptions explici

A liquid helium target system for a measurement of parity violation in neutron spin rotation

A liquid helium target system was designed and built to perform a precision measurement of the parity-violating neutron spin rotation in helium due to the nucleon-nucleon weak interaction. The measurement employed a beam of low energy neutrons that passed through a crossed neutron polarizer--analyzer pair with the liquid helium target system located between them. Changes between the target states generated differences in the beam transmission through the polarizer--analyzer pair. The amount of parity-violating spin rotation was determined from the measured beam transmission asymmetries. The expected parity-violating spin rotation of order $10^{-6}$ rad placed severe constraints on the target design. In particular, isolation of the parity-odd component of the spin rotation from a much larger background rotation caused by magnetic fields required that a nonmagnetic cryostat and target system be supported inside the magnetic shielding, while allowing nonmagnetic motion of liquid helium between separated target chambers. This paper provides a detailed description of the design, function, and performance of the liquid helium target system.Comment: V2: 29 pages, 14 figues, submitted to Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B. Revised to address reviewer comment

Reevaluation of the role of nuclear uncertainties in experiments on atomic parity violation with isotopic chains

In light of new data on neutron distributions from experiments with antiprotonic atoms [ Trzcinska {\it et al.}, Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 082501 (2001)], we reexamine the role of nuclear-structure uncertainties in the interpretation of measurements of parity violation in atoms using chains of isotopes of the same element. With these new nuclear data, we find an improvement in the sensitivity of isotopic chain measurements to ``new physics'' beyond the standard model. We compare possible constraints on ``new physics'' with the most accurate to date single-isotope probe of parity violation in the Cs atom. We conclude that presently isotopic chain experiments employing atoms with nuclear charges Z < 50 may result in more accurate tests of the weak interaction.Comment: 6 pages, 1 fig., submitted to Phys. Rev.

All-optical ion generation for ion trap loading

We have investigated the all-optical generation of ions by photo-ionisation of atoms generated by pulsed laser ablation. A direct comparison between a resistively heated oven source and pulsed laser ablation is reported. Pulsed laser ablation with 10 ns Nd:YAG laser pulses is shown to produce large calcium flux, corresponding to atomic beams produced with oven temperatures greater than 650 K. For an equivalent atomic flux, pulsed laser ablation is shown to produce a thermal load more than one order of magnitude smaller than the oven source. The atomic beam distributions obey Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics with most probable speeds corresponding to temperatures greater than 2200 K. Below a threshold pulse fluence between 280 mJ/cm^2 and 330 mJ/cm^2, the atomic beam is composed exclusively of ground state atoms. For higher fluences ions and excited atoms are generated.Comment: 7 pages, 9 figure

Parity nonconserving cold neutron-parahydrogen interactions

Three pion dominated observables of the parity nonconserving interactions between the cold neutrons and parahydrogen are calculated. The transversely polarized neutron spin rotation, unpolarized neutron longitudinal polarization, and photon-asymmetry of the radiative polarized neutron capture are considered. For the numerical evaluation of the observables, the strong interactions are taken into account by the Reid93 potential and the parity nonconserving interactions by the DDH model along with the two-pion exchange.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figure

Physics of Solar Prominences: II - Magnetic Structure and Dynamics

Observations and models of solar prominences are reviewed. We focus on non-eruptive prominences, and describe recent progress in four areas of prominence research: (1) magnetic structure deduced from observations and models, (2) the dynamics of prominence plasmas (formation and flows), (3) Magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) waves in prominences and (4) the formation and large-scale patterns of the filament channels in which prominences are located. Finally, several outstanding issues in prominence research are discussed, along with observations and models required to resolve them.Comment: 75 pages, 31 pictures, review pape

Heritability of attention problems in children II: longitudinal results from a study of twins age 3 to 12.

this paper we present data of large samples of twin families, with an equal number of girls and boys. The well-known gender difference with boys displaying more OA and AP was observed at each age. Even at the age of 3, boys display more OA problems than girls. Clinical studies have indicated that severe problem behavior can be identified in very young children (see for review, Campbell, 1995; Keenan &amp; Wakschlag, 2000; Shaw, Owens, Giovannelli, &amp; Winslow, 2001) and that the onset of ADHD is during the pre-school period (Barkley, Fisher, Edelbrock, &amp; Smallish, 1990; Table 6 Top part includes percentages of total variances (diagonal) and covariances (off-diagonal) explained by additive genetic, genetic dominance, and unique environmental components based on best fitting models. Percentages for boys and girls are reported below and above diagonal, respectively. Lower part includes correlations calculated for additive genetic, genetic dominance, and unique environmental sources of variance between different ages. Correlations for boys and girls are reported below and above diagonal, respectively Relative proportions of variance and covariance BoysnGirls A% D% E% OA 3 AP 7 AP 10 AP 12 OA 3 AP 7 AP 10 AP 12 OA 3 AP 7 AP 10 AP 12 OA 3 50n41 73 79 75 22n33 17 13 14 28n26 10 8 11 AP 7 59 33n57 50 53 31 39n16 31 28 10 28n27 19 19 AP 10 86 31 41n48 47 6 51 31n25 32 8 18 28n27 21 AP 12 71 24 31 40n54 16 55 45 30n18 13 21 24 30n28 Correlations between different ages BoysnGirls ADE OA 3 AP 7 AP 10 AP 12 OA 3 AP 7 AP 10 AP 12 OA 3 AP 7 AP 10 AP 12 OA 3 1.00 .60 .66 .57 1.00 .30 .16 .20 1.00 .15 .12 .14 AP 7 .57 1.00 .62 .57 .41 1.00 .99 1.00 .15 1.00 .46 .41 AP 10 .68 .56 1.00 .61 .08 .94 1.00 1.00 .11 .42 1.00 .50 AP 12 .49 .42 .53 1.00 .20 .98 .99 1.00 .14 .45 .58 1.00 ..

History of clinical transplantation

How transplantation came to be a clinical discipline can be pieced together by perusing two volumes of reminiscences collected by Paul I. Terasaki in 1991-1992 from many of the persons who were directly involved. One volume was devoted to the discovery of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with particular reference to the human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) that are widely used today for tissue matching.1 The other focused on milestones in the development of clinical transplantation.2 All the contributions described in both volumes can be traced back in one way or other to the demonstration in the mid-1940s by Peter Brian Medawar that the rejection of allografts is an immunological phenomenon.3,4 © 2008 Springer New York

The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt