Assessing Human Error Against a Benchmark of Perfection

An increasing number of domains are providing us with detailed trace data on human decisions in settings where we can evaluate the quality of these decisions via an algorithm. Motivated by this development, an emerging line of work has begun to consider whether we can characterize and predict the kinds of decisions where people are likely to make errors. To investigate what a general framework for human error prediction might look like, we focus on a model system with a rich history in the behavioral sciences: the decisions made by chess players as they select moves in a game. We carry out our analysis at a large scale, employing datasets with several million recorded games, and using chess tablebases to acquire a form of ground truth for a subset of chess positions that have been completely solved by computers but remain challenging even for the best players in the world. We organize our analysis around three categories of features that we argue are present in most settings where the analysis of human error is applicable: the skill of the decision-maker, the time available to make the decision, and the inherent difficulty of the decision. We identify rich structure in all three of these categories of features, and find strong evidence that in our domain, features describing the inherent difficulty of an instance are significantly more powerful than features based on skill or time.Comment: KDD 2016; 10 page

Cross-Shelf Transport Through the Interaction among a Coastal Jet, a Topographic Wave, and Tides

Shelf break flows are often characterized by along-isobath jets with cross-shelf currents associated with tides and waves guided by variable topography. Here, we address the question: Can a superposition of such flows produce significant aperiodic cross-shelf transport? To answer this question, we use a barotropic analytic model for the jet based on a similarity solution of the shallow water equations over variable topography, a wave disturbance determined by the topography, and a diurnal tidal disturbance. We use standard Lagrangian methods to assess the cross-shelf transport, presenting the results, however, in a Eulerian frame, so as to be amenable to oceanographic observations. The relative roles of the different flow components in cross-shelf transport are assessed through an extensive parameter study. We find that a superposition of all three flow components can indeed produce consequential background aperiodic transport. An application of the model using recent observations from the Texas Shelf demonstrates that a combination of these background mechanisms can produce significant transport under realistic conditions

Conformal Motions and the Duistermaat-Heckman Integration Formula

We derive a geometric integration formula for the partition function of a classical dynamical system and use it to show that corrections to the WKB approximation vanish for any Hamiltonian which generates conformal motions of some Riemannian geometry on the phase space. This generalizes previous cases where the Hamiltonian was taken as an isometry generator. We show that this conformal symmetry is similar to the usual formulations of the Duistermaat-Heckman integration formula in terms of a supersymmetric Ward identity for the dynamical system. We present an explicit example of a localizable Hamiltonian system in this context and use it to demonstrate how the dynamics of such systems differ from previous examples of the Duistermaat-Heckman theorem.Comment: 13 pages LaTeX, run twice. Uses epsf.tex, 2 postscript files read directly into LaTeX file from director

Koinonia

Commission Funding, S. Makin Identity: A View from the Garden, W. Kirwan Resident Hall Improvement Without a Budget, B. Ferro Role Playing / RA Training, J. Barnes Career - Planning and Placement, C. Smith Freshman Roommate Selection, S. Raymond Creative Activities, D. Messenger Student Leadership Development, R.E. Dodgehttps://pillars.taylor.edu/acsd_koinonia/1064/thumbnail.jp

Summary [January 1978]

This brief provides a summary of the world, UK and Scottish economic outlook. The upward movement in the Scotland/UK unemployment relative over the past few quarters is unlikely to portend a return to the poor relative performance of the Scottish economy which occurred in the early nineteen sixties. Nevertheless the outlook for the Scottish economy in 1978 is not very encouraging

GALEX J201337.6+092801: The lowest gravity subdwarf B pulsator

We present the recent discovery of a new subdwarf B variable (sdBV), with an exceptionally low surface gravity. Our spectroscopy of J20136+0928 places it at Teff = 32100 +/- 500, log(g) = 5.15 +/- 0.10, and log(He/H) = -2.8 +/- 0.1. With a magnitude of B = 12.0, it is the second brightest V361 Hya star ever found. Photometry from three different observatories reveals a temporal spectrum with eleven clearly detected periods in the range 376 to 566 s, and at least five more close to our detection limit. These periods are unusually long for the V361 Hya class of short-period sdBV pulsators, but not unreasonable for p- and g-modes close to the radial fundamental, given its low surface gravity. Of the ~50 short period sdB pulsators known to date, only a single one has been found to have comparable spectroscopic parameters to J20136+0928. This is the enigmatic high-amplitude pulsator V338 Ser, and we conclude that J20136+0928 is the second example of this rare subclass of sdB pulsators located well above the canonical extreme horizontal branch in the HR diagram.Comment: 5 pages, accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Effects of switching between anti-TNF therapies on HAQ response in patients who do not respond to their first anti-TNF drug

Objectives. Small studies have shown an improvement in disease activity in patients with RA who have switched between anti-TNF therapies for reasons of inefficacy. However, it is not clear whether switching improves longer term outcomes, such as disability. This analysis compares changes in HAQ scores 1 yr following lack of response to a first anti-TNF based on subsequent treatment during that year

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion