Revealing dynamics, communities and criticality from data

Complex systems such as ecological communities and neuron networks are essential parts of our everyday lives. These systems are composed of units which interact through intricate networks. The ability to predict sudden changes in the dynamics of these networks, known as critical transitions, from data is important to avert disastrous consequences of major disruptions. Predicting such changes is a major challenge as it requires forecasting the behaviour for parameter ranges for which no data on the system is available. We address this issue for networks with weak individual interactions and chaotic local dynamics. We do this by building a model network, termed an {}, consisting of the underlying local dynamics and a statistical description of their interactions. We show that behaviour of such networks can be decomposed in terms of an emergent deterministic component and a {} term. Traditionally, such fluctuations are filtered out. However, as we show, they are key to accessing the interaction structure. { We illustrate this approach on synthetic time-series of realistic neuronal interaction networks of the cat cerebral cortex and on experimental multivariate data of optoelectronic oscillators. } We reconstruct the community structure by analysing the stochastic fluctuations generated by the network and predict critical transitions for coupling parameters outside the observed range

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection and genotype frequency in the oral mucosa of newborns in Milan, Italy

Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes cutaneous and mucosal infections in both adults and children. In order to evaluate HPV prevalence and the spectrum of genotypes in the oral cavity of paediatric subjects, a retrospective study was carried out on oral-pharyngeal swabs collected from 177 newborns aged 0-6months. HPV-DNA was detected by a nested-PCR; the viral typing was made through DNA sequencing. HPV infection was identified in 25 subjects (14.1%) and the sequence analysis showed eight distinct genotypes. These data confirm HPV detection in newborn oral mucosa. Further investigations are needed to clarify the methods of HPV acquisition

Chlamydia trachomatis prevalence and chlamydial/ HPV co-infection among HPV-unvaccinated young italian females with normal cytology

Infections caused by Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) and human papillomavirus (HPV) are the two main sexually transmitted infections; however, epidemiological data on Ct prevalence and Ct/HPV co-infection in Italy are scant. This study aimed at estimating the prevalence of Ct infection and Ct/HPV co-infection in young HPV-unvaccinated females with normal cytology, and placed particular attention on the possible association between Ct-DNA positivity and different HPV infecting genotypes. Five hundred 66 healthy females aged 16-26 years without cervical lesions, previously assessed for HPV infection (HPV-DNA prevalence: 18.2%), were tested for Ct-DNA. The overall prevalence of Ct was 5.8% (95% CI: 4.2-8.1), while Ct/HPV co-infection was recorded in 2.7% (95% CI: 1.6-4.3) of subjects. Compared with HPV-DNA-negative females, HPV-DNA positive subjects had significantly (P < 0.001) higher odds of being infected with Ct (odds ratio of 4.20, 95% CI: 2.01-8.71). Both Ct and Ct/HPV infections were much more prevalent in under 18-year-olds than in older women. Subjects positive for single high-risk HPV genotypes and various multiple HPV infections had higher odds of being Ct-DNA positive. Our findings confirm that HPV and Ct infections are very common among asymptomatic young Italian females. This underlines the urgent need for nationwide Ct screening programs and reinforcement of sexual health education, which would be the most important public health strategies, since no Ct vaccines are currently available

Low Evolutionary Selection Pressure in Senescence Does Not Explain the Persistence of Aβ in the Vertebrate Genome

The argument is frequently made that the amyloid-β protein (Aβ) persists in the human genome because Alzheimer’s disease (AD) primarily afflicts individuals over reproductive age and, therefore, there is low selective pressure for the peptide’s elimination or modification. This argument is an important premise for AD amyloidosis models and therapeutic strategies that characterize Aβ as a functionless and intrinsically pathological protein. Here, we review if evolutionary theory and data on the genetics and biology of Aβ are consistent with low selective pressure for the peptide’s expression in senescence. Aβ is an ancient neuropeptide expressed across vertebrates. Consistent with unusually high evolutionary selection constraint, the human Aβ sequence is shared by a majority of vertebrate species and has been conserved across at least 400 million years. Unlike humans, the overwhelming majority of vertebrate species do not cease reproduction in senescence and selection pressure is maintained into old age. Hence, low selective pressure in senescence does not explain the persistence of Aβ across the vertebrate genome. The “Grandmother hypothesis” (GMH) is the prevailing model explaining the unusual extended postfertile period of humans. In the GMH, high risk associated with birthing in old age has lead to early cessation of reproduction and a shift to intergenerational care of descendants. The rechanneling of resources to grandchildren by postreproductive individuals increases reproductive success of descendants. In the GMH model, selection pressure does not end following menopause. Thus, evolutionary models and phylogenetic data are not consistent with the absence of reproductive selection pressure for Aβ among aged vertebrates, including humans. Our analysis suggests an alternative evolutionary model for the persistence of Aβ in the vertebrate genome. Aβ has recently been identified as an antimicrobial effector molecule of innate immunity. High conservation across the Chordata phylum is consistent with strong positive selection pressure driving human Aβ’s remarkable evolutionary longevity. Ancient origins and widespread conservation suggest the human Aβ sequence is highly optimized for its immune role. We detail our analysis and discuss how the emerging “Antimicrobial Protection Hypothesis” of AD may provide insights into possible evolutionary roles for Aβ in infection, aging, and disease etiology

Explaining Africa’s public consumption procyclicality : revisiting old evidence

This paper compiles a novel dataset of time-varying measures of government consumption cyclicality for a panel of 46 African economies between 1960 and 2014. Government consumption has, generally, been highly procyclical over time in this group of countries. However, sample averages hide serious heterogeneity across countries with the majority of them showing procyclical behavior despite some positive signs of graduation from the “procyclicality trap” in a few cases. By means of weighted least squares regressions, we find that more developed African economies tend to have a smaller degree of government consumption procyclicality. Countries with higher social fragmentation and those are more reliant on foreign aid inflows tend to have a more procyclical government consumption policy. Better governance promotes counter- cyclical fiscal policy whileincreased democracy dampens it. Finally, some fiscal rules are important in curbing the procyclical behavior of government consumption.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in young Italian women with normal cytology: how should we adapt the national vaccination policy?

Background: Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection. In Italy, HPV vaccination is now offered free of charge to 12-year-old females. However, some regional health authorities have extended free vaccination to other age-groups, especially to girls under 18 years of age. We conducted a multicentre epidemiological study to ascertain the prevalence of different genotypes of HPV in young Italian women with normal cytology, with the aim of evaluating the possibility of extending vaccination to older females.Methods: The study was performed in 2010. Women aged 16-26 years with normal cytology were studied. Cervical samples were analyzed to identify the presence of HPV by PCR amplification of a segment of ORF L1 (450 bp). All positive HPV-DNA samples underwent viral genotype analysis by means of a restriction fragment length polymorphism assay.Results: Positivity for at least one HPV genotype was found in 18.2% of the 566 women recruited: 48.1% in the 16-17 age-class, 15.4 in the 18-20 age-class, 21.9% in the 21-23 age-class, and 15.5% in the 24-26 age-class; 10.1% of women were infected by at least one high-risk HPV genotype. HPV-16 was the most prevalent genotype. Only 4 (0.7%), 4 (0.7%) and 3 (0.5%) women were infected by HPV-18, HPV-6 and HPV-11, respectively. Of the HPV-DNA-positive women, 64.1% presented only one viral genotype, while 24.3% had multiple infections. The HPV genotypes most often involved in multiple infections were high-risk. A high prevalence was noted in the first years of sexual activity (48.1% of HPV-DNA-positive women aged 16-17 years); HPV prevalence subsequently declined and stabilized.The estimate of cumulative proportions of young women free from any HPV infection at each age was evaluated; 93.3% and 97.1% of 26 year-old women proved free from HPV-16 and/or HPV-18 and from HPV-6 and/or HPV-11, respectively.Conclusions: Our findings confirm the crucial importance of conducting studies on women without cytological damage, in order to optimise and up-date preventive interventions against HPV infection, and suggest that vaccinating 26-year-old females at the time of their first pap-test is to be recommend, though this issue should be further explored

Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of human influenza A viruses in three consecutive seasons with different epidemiological profiles

INTRODUCTION: Influenza activity and influenza virus circulation were observed in Lombardy (northern Italy) during three consecutive seasons and the molecular characteristics of circulating viruses analysed to control for introduction of new variants. METHODS: The molecular characterization of 38 isolates, namely 20 A/H3N2 and 18 A/H1N1 influenza strains from the 2005/06, 2006/07 and 2007/08 seasons, was performed by sequence analysis of the globular head region of the HA protein (HA1 subunit), specific for influenza virus A/H3 and A/H1. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The last three influenza seasons in the study region were characterized by medium-low activity. A typical co-circulation of several variants was shown for A/H3 viruses for approximately two years and were subsequently almost entirely substituted by new emerging variants. Vice versa, A/H1 viruses had a more homogeneous circulation with a single lineage clearly dominating each season. The HA sequences of the A/H3 and the A/H1 viruses isolated in the last three seasons fell into 4 and 3 principal phylogenetic groups, respectively. No evidence of positive or negative selection in the sequence alignments was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular characterization of the influenza viruses in three consecutive seasons highlighted considerable heterogeneity in their HA sequences. A careful surveillance of genetic changes in the HA1 domain during seasonal influenza epidemics may reveal immune escape and provide early information on newly emerging strains with epidemiologic inference

Human papillomavirus detection in paraffin-embedded colorectal cancer tissues

Human papillomavirus (HPV) has a well-recognized aetiological role in the development of cervical cancer and other anogenital tumours. Recently, an association between colorectal cancer and HPV infection has been suggested, although this is still controversial. This study aimed at detecting and characterizing HPV infection in 57 paired biopsies from colorectal cancers and adjacent intact tissues using a degenerate PCR approach. All amplified fragments were genotyped by means of sequencing. Overall, HPV prevalence was 12.3 %. In particular, 15.8% of tumour tissues and 8.8% of non-cancerous tissue samples were HPV DNA-positive. Of these samples, 85.7% were genotyped successfully, with 41.7% of sequences identifying four genotypes of the HR (high oncogenic risk) clade Group 1; the remaining 58.3% of HPVgenotyped specimens had an unclassified \u3b2-HPV. Examining additional cases and analysing whole genomes will help to outline the significance of these findings