Chemistry Simulations Using MERRA-2 Reanalysis with the GMI CTM and Replay in Support of the Atmospheric Composition Community

Simulations using reanalyzed meteorological conditions have been long used to understand causes of atmospheric composition change over the recent past. Using the new Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorology, chemistry simulations are being conducted to create products covering 1980-2016 for the atmospheric composition community. These simulations use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism in two different models: the GMI Chemical Transport Model (CTM) and the GEOS-5 model developed Replay mode. Replay mode means an integration of the GEOS-5 general circulation model that is incrementally adjusted each time step toward the MERRA-2 analysis. The GMI CTM is a 1 x 1.25 simulation and the MERRA-2 GMI Replay simulation uses the native MERRA-2 approximately horizontal resolution on the cubed sphere. The Replay simulations is driven by the online use of key MERRA-2 meteorological variables (i.e. U, V, T, and surface pressure) with all other variables calculated in response to those variables. A specialized set of transport diagnostics is included in both runs to better understand trace gas transport and changes over the recent past

Sensitivity of stratospheric inorganic chlorine to differences in transport

International audienceCorrectly modeling stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) is crucial for modeling the past and future evolution of stratospheric ozone. However, comparisons of the chemistry climate models used in the latest international assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion have shown large differences in the modeled Cly, with these differences explaining many of the differences in the simulated evolution of ozone over the next century. Here in, we examine the role of transport in determining the simulated Cly using three simulations from the same off-line chemical transport model that have the same lower tropospheric boundary conditions and the same chemical solver, but differing resolution and/or meteorological fields. These simulations show that transport plays a key role in determining the Cly distribution, and that Cly depends on both the time scales and pathways of transport. The time air spends in the stratosphere (e.g., the mean age) is an important transport factor determining stratospheric Cly, but the relationship between mean age and Cly is not simple. Lower stratospheric Cly depends on the fraction of air that has been in the upper stratosphere, and transport differences between models having the same mean age can result in differences in the fraction of organic chlorine converted into Cly. Differences in transport pathways result in differences in vertical profiles of CFCs, and comparisons of observed and modeled CFC profiles provide a stringent test of transport pathways in models

Transport and modeling of stratospheric inorganic chlorine

International audienceCorrectly modeling stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) is crucial for modeling the past and future evolution of stratospheric ozone. However, comparisons of the chemistry climate models used in the latest international assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion have shown large differences in the modeled Cly, with these differences explaining differences in the simulated evolution of ozone over the next century. Here in, we examine the role of transport in determining the simulated Cly using three simulations from the same off-line chemical transport model that have the same lower tropospheric boundary conditions and the same chemical solver, but differing resolution and/or meteorological fields. These simulations show that transport plays a key role in determining the Cly distribution, and that Cly depends on both the time scales and pathways of transport. The time air spends in the stratosphere (e.g., the mean age) is an important transport factor determining stratospheric Cly, but the relationship between mean age and Cly is not simple. Lower stratospheric Cly depends on the fraction of air that has been in the upper stratosphere, and transport differences between models having the same mean age can result in differences in the fraction of organic chlorine converted into Cly. Differences in transport pathways result in differences in vertical profiles of CFCs, and comparisons of observed and modeled CFC profiles provides a stringent test of transport pathways in models

Small scale structure and mixing at the edge of the Antarctic vortex

Small scale correlations and patterns in the chemical tracers measured from the NASA ER-2 aircraft in the 1987 AAOE campaign can be used to investigate the structure of the edge of the polar vortex and the chemically perturbed region within it. Examples of several types of transport processes can be found in the data. Since ClO and O3 have similar vertical gradients and opposite horizontal gradients near the chemically perturbed region, the correlation between ClO and O3 can be used to study the extent of horizontal transport at the edge of the chemically perturbed region. Horizontal transport dominates the correlation for a latitude band up to 4 degrees on each side of the boundary. This implies a transition zone containing a substantial fraction of the mass of the total polar vortex. Similar horizontal transport can be seen in other tracers as well. It has not been possible to distinguish reversible transport from irreversible mixing. One manifestation of the horizontal transport is that the edge of the chemically perturbed region is often layered rather than a vertical curtain. This can be seen from the frequent reversed vertical gradients of NO2, caused by air with high NO2 overlapping layers with lower mixing ratios. Water and NO2 are positively correlated within the chemically perturbed region. This is the opposite sign to the correlation in the unperturbed stratosphere. The extent of the positive correlation is too great to be attributed solely to horizontal mixing. Instead, it is hypothesized that dehydration and descent are closely connected on a small scale, possibly due to radiative cooling of the clouds that also cause ice to fall to lower altitudes

Chemical and Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on Arctic Ozone Variability

We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields to quantify heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in Arctic winters 2005-2015. Comparisons to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder N2O and O3 observations show the GMI simulation credibly represents the transport processes and net heterogeneous chemical loss necessary to simulate Arctic ozone. We find that the maximum seasonal ozone depletion varies linearly with the number of cold days and with wave driving (eddy heat flux) calculated from MERRA fields. We use this relationship and MERRA temperatures to estimate seasonal ozone loss from 1993 to 2004 when inorganic chlorine levels were in the same range as during the Aura period. Using these loss estimates and the observed March mean 63-90N column O3, we quantify the sensitivity of the ozone dynamical resupply to wave driving, separating it from the sensitivity of ozone depletion to wave driving. The results show that about 2/3 of the deviation of the observed March Arctic O3 from an assumed climatological mean is due to variations in O3 resupply and 13 is due to depletion. Winters with a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) before mid-February have about 1/3 the depletion of winters without one and export less depletion to the midlatitudes. However, a larger effect on the spring midlatitude ozone comes from dynamical differences between warm and cold Arctic winters, which can mask or add to the impact of exported depletion

The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environmen

Model study of the cross-tropopause transport of biomass burning pollution

We present a modeling study of the troposphere-to-stratosphere transport (TST) of pollution from major biomass burning regions to the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). TST occurs predominately through 1) slow ascent in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) to the LS and 2) quasi-horizontal exchange to the lowermost stratosphere (LMS). We show that biomass burning pollution regularly and significantly impacts the composition of the TTL, LS, and LMS. Carbon monoxide (CO) in the LS in our simulation and data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) shows an annual oscillation in its composition that results from the interaction of an annual oscillation in slow ascent from the TTL to the LS and seasonal variations in sources, including a semi-annual oscillation in CO from biomass burning. The impacts of CO sources that peak when ascent is seasonally low are damped (e.g. Southern Hemisphere biomass burning) and vice-versa for sources that peak when ascent is seasonally high (e.g. extra-tropical fossil fuels). Interannual variation of CO in the UT/LS is caused primarily by year-to-year variations in biomass burning and the locations of deep convection. During our study period, 1994–1998, we find that the highest concentrations of CO in the UT/LS occurred during the strong 1997–1998 El Niño event for two reasons: i. tropical deep convection shifted to the eastern Pacific Ocean, closer to South American and African CO sources, and ii. emissions from Indonesian biomass burning were higher. This extreme event can be seen as an upper bound on the impact of biomass burning pollution on the UT/LS. We estimate that the 1997 Indonesian wildfires increased CO in the entire TTL and tropical LS (>60 mb) by more than 40% and 10%, respectively, for several months. Zonal mean ozone increased and the hydroxyl radical decreased by as much as 20%, increasing the lifetimes and, subsequently TST, of trace gases. Our results indicate that the impact of biomass burning pollution on the UT/LS is likely greatest during an El Niño event due to favorable dynamics and historically higher burning rates

Weighted Correlation Network Analysis (WGCNA) Applied to the Tomato Fruit Metabolome

BACKGROUND: Advances in "omics" technologies have revolutionized the collection of biological data. A matching revolution in our understanding of biological systems, however, will only be realized when similar advances are made in informatic analysis of the resulting "big data." Here, we compare the capabilities of three conventional and novel statistical approaches to summarize and decipher the tomato metabolome. METHODOLOGY: Principal component analysis (PCA), batch learning self-organizing maps (BL-SOM) and weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) were applied to a multivariate NMR dataset collected from developmentally staged tomato fruits belonging to several genotypes. While PCA and BL-SOM are appropriate and commonly used methods, WGCNA holds several advantages in the analysis of highly multivariate, complex data. CONCLUSIONS: PCA separated the two major genetic backgrounds (AC and NC), but provided little further information. Both BL-SOM and WGCNA clustered metabolites by expression, but WGCNA additionally defined "modules" of co-expressed metabolites explicitly and provided additional network statistics that described the systems properties of the tomato metabolic network. Our first application of WGCNA to tomato metabolomics data identified three major modules of metabolites that were associated with ripening-related traits and genetic background