Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results

The problem of modelling football data has become increasingly popular in the last few years and many different models have been proposed with the aim of estimating the characteristics that bring a team to lose or win a game, or to predict the score of a particular match. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to fulfil both these aims and test its predictive strength based on data about the Italian Serie A 1991-1992 championship. To overcome the issue of overshrinkage produced by the Bayesian hierarchical model, we specify a more complex mixture model that results in a better fit to the observed data. We test its performance using an example of the Italian Serie A 2007-2008 championship

Preliminary investigation of pressure influence on multiphase heat transfer report no. ii

Pressure and surface condition in multiphase boiling heat transfe

Physiological basis for storage life extension in fresh sweet potato: Final technical report

The overall objective of this project was to work towards the identification of the major physiological and environmental factors affecting perishability of the fresh sweet potato root, and thereby to facilitate the identification of strategies for increasing shelf-life through cultivar selection and improved handling practice

Is subdiffusional transport slower than normal?

We consider anomalous non-Markovian transport of Brownian particles in viscoelastic fluid-like media with very large but finite macroscopic viscosity under the influence of a constant force field F. The viscoelastic properties of the medium are characterized by a power-law viscoelastic memory kernel which ultra slow decays in time on the time scale \tau of strong viscoelastic correlations. The subdiffusive transport regime emerges transiently for t<\tau. However, the transport becomes asymptotically normal for t>>\tau. It is shown that even though transiently the mean displacement and the variance both scale sublinearly, i.e. anomalously slow, in time, ~ F t^\alpha, ~ t^\alpha, 0<\alpha<1, the mean displacement at each instant of time is nevertheless always larger than one obtained for normal transport in a purely viscous medium with the same macroscopic viscosity obtained in the Markovian approximation. This can have profound implications for the subdiffusive transport in biological cells as the notion of "ultra-slowness" can be misleading in the context of anomalous diffusion-limited transport and reaction processes occurring on nano- and mesoscales

MOBILE and the provision of total joint replacement

Modern joint replacements have been available for 45 years, but we still do not have clear indications for these interventions, and we do not know how to optimize the outcome for patients who agree to have them done. The MOBILE programme has been investigating these issues in relation to primary total hip and knee joint replacements, using mixed methods research

Molecular Model of the Contractile Ring

We present a model for the actin contractile ring of adherent animal cells. The model suggests that the actin concentration within the ring and consequently the power that the ring exerts both increase during contraction. We demonstrate the crucial role of actin polymerization and depolymerization throughout cytokinesis, and the dominance of viscous dissipation in the dynamics. The physical origin of two phases in cytokinesis dynamics ("biphasic cytokinesis") follows from a limitation on the actin density. The model is consistent with a wide range of measurements of the midzone of dividing animal cells.Comment: PACS numbers: 87.16.Ka, 87.16.Ac http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16197254 http://www.weizmann.ac.il/complex/tlusty/papers/PhysRevLett2005.pd

Evaluation of a present-day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM

We present a new, non-flux corrected AOGCM, GENMOM, that combines the GENESIS version 3 atmospheric GCM (Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems) and MOM2 (Modular Ocean Model version 2) nominally at T31 resolution. We evaluate GENMOM by comparison with reanalysis products (e.g., NCEP2) and three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 °C. Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semi-permanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures reasonably well the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM simulations include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-than-observed overturning circulation

Rivaroxaban for Preventing Atherothrombotic Events in People with Acute Coronary Syndrome and Elevated Cardiac Biomarkers: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

As part of its Single Technology Appraisal process, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the company that manufactures rivaroxaban (Xarelto, Bayer) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of rivaroxaban for the prevention of adverse outcomes in patients after the acute management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The School of Health and Related Research Technology Appraisal Group at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology, based upon the company's submission to NICE. The evidence was derived mainly from a randomised, double-blind, phase III, placebo-controlled trial of rivaroxaban (either 2.5 or 5 mg twice daily) in patients with recent ACS [unstable angina, non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) or ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI)]. In addition, all patients received antiplatelet therapy [aspirin alone or aspirin and a thienopyridine either as clopidogrel (approximately 99 %) or ticlopidine (approximately 1 %) according to national or local guidelines]. The higher dose of rivaroxaban (5 mg twice daily) did not form part of the marketing authorisation. A post hoc subgroup analysis of the licensed patients who had ACS with elevated cardiac biomarkers (that is, patients with STEMI and NSTEMI) without prior stroke or transient ischaemic stroke showed that compared with standard care, the addition of rivaroxaban (2.5 mg twice daily) to existing antiplatelet therapy reduced the composite endpoint of cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, but increased the risk of major bleeding and intracranial haemorrhage. However, there were a number of limitations in the evidence base that warrant caution in its interpretation. In particular, the evidence may be confounded because of the post hoc subgroup analysis, modified intention-to-treat analyses, high dropout rates and missing vital status data. Results from the company's economic evaluation showed that the deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for rivaroxaban in combination with aspirin plus clopidogrel or with aspirin alone compared with aspirin plus clopidogrel or aspirin alone was £6203 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. In contrast, the ERG's preferred base case estimate was £5622 per QALY gained. The ICER did not rise above £10,000 per QALY gained in any of the sensitivity analyses undertaken by the ERG, although the inflexibility of the company's economic model precluded the ERG from formally undertaking all desired exploratory analyses. As such, only a crude exploration of the impact of additional bleeding events could be undertaken. The NICE Appraisal Committee concluded that the ICERs presented were all within the range that could be considered cost effective and that the results of the ERG's exploratory sensitivity and scenario analyses suggested that the ICER was unlikely to increase to the extent that it would become unacceptable. The Appraisal Committee therefore concluded that rivaroxaban in combination with aspirin plus clopidogrel, or with aspirin alone, was a cost-effective use of National Health Service (NHS) resources for preventing atherothrombotic events in people with ACS and elevated cardiac biomarkers