Higher Accuracy for Bayesian and Frequentist Inference: Large Sample Theory for Small Sample Likelihood

Recent likelihood theory produces $p$-values that have remarkable accuracy and wide applicability. The calculations use familiar tools such as maximum likelihood values (MLEs), observed information and parameter rescaling. The usual evaluation of such $p$-values is by simulations, and such simulations do verify that the global distribution of the $p$-values is uniform(0, 1), to high accuracy in repeated sampling. The derivation of the $p$-values, however, asserts a stronger statement, that they have a uniform(0, 1) distribution conditionally, given identified precision information provided by the data. We take a simple regression example that involves exact precision information and use large sample techniques to extract highly accurate information as to the statistical position of the data point with respect to the parameter: specifically, we examine various $p$-values and Bayesian posterior survivor $s$-values for validity. With observed data we numerically evaluate the various $p$-values and $s$-values, and we also record the related general formulas. We then assess the numerical values for accuracy using Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) methods. We also propose some third-order likelihood-based procedures for obtaining means and variances of Bayesian posterior distributions, again followed by McMC assessment. Finally we propose some adaptive McMC methods to improve the simulation acceptance rates. All these methods are based on asymptotic analysis that derives from the effect of additional data. And the methods use simple calculations based on familiar maximizing values and related informations. The example illustrates the general formulas and the ease of calculations, while the McMC assessments demonstrate the numerical validity of the $p$-values as percentage position of a data point. The example, however, is very simple and transparent, and thus gives little indication that in a wide generality of models the formulas do accurately separate information for almost any parameter of interest, and then do give accurate $p$-value determinations from that information. As illustration an enigmatic problem in the literature is discussed and simulations are recorded; various examples in the literature are cited.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-STS240 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Inference and Optimization of Real Edges on Sparse Graphs - A Statistical Physics Perspective

Inference and optimization of real-value edge variables in sparse graphs are studied using the Bethe approximation and replica method of statistical physics. Equilibrium states of general energy functions involving a large set of real edge-variables that interact at the network nodes are obtained in various cases. When applied to the representative problem of network resource allocation, efficient distributed algorithms are also devised. Scaling properties with respect to the network connectivity and the resource availability are found, and links to probabilistic Bayesian approximation methods are established. Different cost measures are considered and algorithmic solutions in the various cases are devised and examined numerically. Simulation results are in full agreement with the theory.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures, major changes: Sections IV to VII updated, Figs. 1 to 3 replace

Interaction Between Ion Beams and Plasmas

Interaction between low energy cesium ion beam and thermal cesium plasm

Pion Interferometry for a Granular Source of Quark-Gluon Plasma Droplets

We examine the two-pion interferometry for a granular source of quark-gluon plasma droplets. The evolution of the droplets is described by relativistic hydrodynamics with an equation of state suggested by lattice gauge results. Pions are assumed to be emitted thermally from the droplets at the freeze-out configuration characterized by a freeze-out temperature $T_f$. We find that the HBT radius $R_{out}$ decreases if the initial size of the droplets decreases. On the other hand, $R_{side}$ depends on the droplet spatial distribution and is relatively independent of the droplet size. It increases with an increase in the width of the spatial distribution and the collective-expansion velocity of the droplets. As a result, the value of $R_{out}$ can lie close to $R_{side}$ for a granular quark-gluon plasma source. The granular model of the emitting source may provide an explanation to the RHIC HBT puzzle and may lead to a new insight into the dynamics of the quark-gluon plasma phase transition.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Signals in Single-Event Pion Interferometry for Granular Sources of Quark-Gluon Plasma Droplets

We investigate two-pion Bose-Einstein correlations of quark-gluon plasma droplet sources in single-event measurements. We find that the distribution of the fluctuation between correlation functions of the single- and mixed-events provide useful signals to detect the granular structure of the source.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, in LaTe

Does HBT Measure the Freeze-out Source Distribution?

It is generally assumed that as a result of multiple scattering, the source distribution measured in HBT interferometry corresponds to a chaotic source at freeze-out. This assumption is subject to question as effects of multiple scattering in HBT measurements must be investigated within a quantum-mechanical framework. Applying the Glauber multiple scattering theory at high energies and the optical model at lower energies, we find that multiple scattering leads to an effective HBT density distribution that depends on the initial chaotic source distribution with an absorption.Comment: 4 pages, talk presented at QM2004 Conference, January 11-17, 2004, Oakland, California, USA, to be published in the Proceeding

Pion Interferometry for Hydrodynamical Expanding Source with a Finite Baryon Density

We calculate the two-pion correlation function for an expanding hadron source with a finite baryon density. The space-time evolution of the source is described by relativistic hydrodynamics and the Hanbury-Brown-Twiss (HBT) radius is extracted after effects of collective expansion and multiple scattering on the HBT interferometry have been taken into account, using quantum probability amplitudes in a path-integral formalism. We find that this radius is substantially smaller than the HBT radius extracted from the freeze-out configuration.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Visualising vitreous through modified trans-scleral illumination by maximising the Tyndall effect

Background: A new technique for visualisation of the vitreous base is described. It uses a standard lightpipe for scleral indentation and transillumination. Visualisation of the vitreous using low light levels can be achieved by enhancing the Tyndall effect. Discussion: Perfluorocarbon liquid (PFCL) is used to confine the aqueous environment to the anterior vitreous cavity and triamcinolone is added to increase light scatter. The technique clearly differentiates vitreous from PFCL and infusion fluid, and facilitates trimming of the vitreous base, draining of subretinal fluid and air/fluid exchange.published_or_final_versio

Melt-growth dynamics in CdTe crystals

We use a new, quantum-mechanics-based bond-order potential (BOP) to reveal melt-growth dynamics and fine-scale defect formation mechanisms in CdTe crystals. Previous molecular dynamics simulations of semiconductors have shown qualitatively incorrect behavior due to the lack of an interatomic potential capable of predicting both crystalline growth and property trends of many transitional structures encountered during the melt $\rightarrow$ crystal transformation. Here we demonstrate successful molecular dynamics simulations of melt-growth in CdTe using a BOP that significantly improves over other potentials on property trends of different phases. Our simulations result in a detailed understanding of defect formation during the melt-growth process. Equally important, we show that the new BOP enables defect formation mechanisms to be studied at a scale level comparable to empirical molecular dynamics simulation methods with a fidelity level approaching quantum-mechanical method