Generalised Mixability, Constant Regret, and Bayesian Updating

Mixability of a loss is known to characterise when constant regret bounds are achievable in games of prediction with expert advice through the use of Vovk's aggregating algorithm. We provide a new interpretation of mixability via convex analysis that highlights the role of the Kullback-Leibler divergence in its definition. This naturally generalises to what we call $\Phi$-mixability where the Bregman divergence $D_\Phi$ replaces the KL divergence. We prove that losses that are $\Phi$-mixable also enjoy constant regret bounds via a generalised aggregating algorithm that is similar to mirror descent.Comment: 12 page

Shifts in hexapod diversification and what Haldane could have said

Data on species richness and taxon age are assembled for the extant hexapod orders (insects and their six-legged relatives). Coupled with estimates of phylogenetic relatedness, and simple statistical null models, these data are used to locate where, on the hexapod tree, significant changes in the rate of cladogenesis (speciation-minus-extinction rate) have occurred. Significant differences are found between many successive pairs of sister taxa near the base of the hexapod tree, all of which are attributable to a shift in diversification rate after the origin of the Neoptera (insects with wing flexion) and before the origin of the Holometabola (insects with complete metamorphosis). No other shifts are identifiable amongst supraordinal taxa. Whilst the Coleoptera have probably diversified faster than either of their putative sister lineages, they do not stand out relative to other closely related clades. These results suggest that any Creator had a fondness for a much more inclusive clade than the Coleoptera, definitely as large as the Eumetabola (Holometabola plus bugs and their relatives), and possibly as large as the entire Neoptera. Simultaneous, hence probable causative events are discussed, of which the origin of wing flexion has been the focus of much attention

Teaching Physics Using Virtual Reality

We present an investigation of game-like simulations for physics teaching. We report on the effectiveness of the interactive simulation "Real Time Relativity" for learning special relativity. We argue that the simulation not only enhances traditional learning, but also enables new types of learning that challenge the traditional curriculum. The lessons drawn from this work are being applied to the development of a simulation for enhancing the learning of quantum mechanics

Estimating Small Area Income Deprivation: An Iterative Proportional Fitting Approach

Small area estimation and in particular the estimation of small area income deprivation has potential value in the development of new or alternative components of multiple deprivation indices. These new approaches enable the development of income distribution threshold based as opposed to benefit count based measures of income deprivation and so enable the alignment of regional and national measures such as the Households Below Average Income with small area measures. This paper briefly reviews a number of approaches to small area estimation before describing in some detail an iterative proportional fitting based spatial microsimulation approach. This approach is then applied to the estimation of small area HBAI rates at the small area level in Wales in 2003-5. The paper discusses the results of this approach, contrasts them with contemporary ‘official’ income deprivation measures for the same areas and describes a range of ways to assess the robustness of the results

Finite Density QCD in the Chiral Limit

We present the first results of an exact simulation of full QCD at finite density in the chiral limit. We have used a MFA (Microcanonical Fermionic Average) inspired approach for the reconstruction of the Grand Canonical Partition Function of the theory; using the fugacity expansion of the fermionic determinant we are able to move continuously in the ($\beta -\mu$) plane with $m=0$.Comment: 3 pages, LaTeX, 3 figures, uses espcrc2.sty, psfig. Talk presented by A. Galante at Lattice 97. Correction of some reference

Generalized Mixability via Entropic Duality

Mixability is a property of a loss which characterizes when fast convergence is possible in the game of prediction with expert advice. We show that a key property of mixability generalizes, and the exp and log operations present in the usual theory are not as special as one might have thought. In doing this we introduce a more general notion of $\Phi$-mixability where $\Phi$ is a general entropy (\ie, any convex function on probabilities). We show how a property shared by the convex dual of any such entropy yields a natural algorithm (the minimizer of a regret bound) which, analogous to the classical aggregating algorithm, is guaranteed a constant regret when used with $\Phi$-mixable losses. We characterize precisely which $\Phi$ have $\Phi$-mixable losses and put forward a number of conjectures about the optimality and relationships between different choices of entropy.Comment: 20 pages, 1 figure. Supersedes the work in arXiv:1403.2433 [cs.LG

A CLEAN-based Method for Deconvolving Interstellar Pulse Broadening from Radio Pulses

Multipath propagation in the interstellar medium distorts radio pulses, an effect predominant for distant pulsars observed at low frequencies. Typically, broadened pulses are analyzed to determine the amount of propagation-induced pulse broadening, but with little interest in determining the undistorted pulse shapes. In this paper we develop and apply a method that recovers both the intrinsic pulse shape and the pulse broadening function that describes the scattering of an impulse. The method resembles the CLEAN algorithm used in synthesis imaging applications, although we search for the best pulse broadening function, and perform a true deconvolution to recover intrinsic pulse structre. As figures of merit to optimize the deconvolution, we use the positivity and symmetry of the deconvolved result along with the mean square residual and the number of points below a given threshold. Our method makes no prior assumptions about the intrinsic pulse shape and can be used for a range of scattering functions for the interstellar medium. It can therefore be applied to a wider variety of measured pulse shapes and degrees of scattering than the previous approaches. We apply the technique to both simulated data and data from Arecibo observations.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Observed tidal braking in the earth/moon/sun system

The low degree and order terms in the spherical harmonic model of the tidal potential were observed through the perturbations which are induced on near-earth satellite orbital motions. Evaluations of tracking observations from 17 satellites and a GEM-T1 geopotential model were used in the tidal recovery which was made in the presence of over 600 long-wavelength coefficients from 32 major and minor tides. Wahr's earth tidal model was used as a basis for the recovery of the ocean tidal terms. Using this tidal model, the secular change in the moon's mean motion due to tidal dissipation was found to be -25.27 + or - 0.61 arcsec/century squared. The estimation of lunar acceleration agreed with that observed from lunar laser ranging techniques (-24.9 + or - 1.0 arcsec/century squared), with the corresponding tidal braking of earth's rotation being -5.98 + or - 0.22 x 10 to the minus 22 rad/second squared. If the nontidal braking of the earth due to the observed secular change in the earth's second zonal harmonic is considered, satellite techniques yield a total value of the secular change of the earth's rotation rate of -4.69 + or - 0.36 x 10 to the minus 22 rad/second squared

Oxidative Stress Response to Short Duration Bout of Submaximal Aerobic Exercise in Healthy Young Adults

The purpose of this study was to investigate the oxidative stress response to a short duration bout of submaximal exercise in a cohort of healthy young adults. 15 apparently healthy college age males and females completed a modified Bruce-protocol treadmill test to 75–80% of their heart rate reserve. Blood samples collected immediately before (pre-exercise), immediately after, 30, 60 and 120 minutes post-exercise were assayed for total antioxidant capacity (TAC), superoxide disumutase (SOD), thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances (TBARS), and protein carbonyls (PC). SOD activity was significantly increased from pre-exercise levels at 30 minutes (77%), 60 minutes (33%), and 120 minutes (37%) post-exercise. TAC levels were also significantly increased from pre-exercise levels at 60 minutes (30%) and 120 minutes (33%) post-exercise. There were no significant changes in biomarkers for reactive oxygen/nitrogen species (RONS) mediated damage (TBARS and PC) across all post-exercise time points. In a cohort of healthy young adults, a short duration bout of submaximal aerobic exercise elicited increases in antioxidant activity/concentration, but did not evoke changes in oxidative stress-induced damage. These results may suggest that: (1) short duration bouts of submaximal aerobic exercise are sufficient to induce RONS generation; and (2) the antioxidant defense system is capable of protecting against enhanced RONS production induced by a short duration, submaximal exercise bout in healthy young adults

Diurnal variation in harbour porpoise detection – potential implications for management

Peer reviewedPublisher PD