Rapid and reliable assessment of methane impacts on climate

It is clear that the most effective way to limit global temperature rise and associated impacts is to reduce human emissions of greenhouse gases, including methane. However, quantification of the climate benefits of mitigation options are complicated by the contrast in the timescales at which short-lived climate pollutants, such as methane, persist in the atmosphere compared to carbon dioxide. Whereas simple metrics fail to capture the differential impacts across all timescales, sophisticated climate models that can address these temporal dynamics are often inaccessible, time-intensive, require special infrastructure, and include high unforced interannual variability that makes it difficult to analyse small changes in forcings. On the other hand, reduced-complexity climate models that use basic knowledge from observations and complex Earth system models offer an ideal compromise in that they provide quick, reliable insights into climate responses, with only limited computational infrastructure needed. They are particularly useful for simulating the response to forcings of small changes in different climate pollutants, due to the absence of internal variability. In this paper, we build on previous evaluations of the freely available and easy-to-run reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC by comparing temperature responses to historical methane emissions to those from a more complex coupled global chemistry–climate model, GFDL-CM3. While we find that the overall forcings and temperature responses are comparable between the two models, the prominent role of unforced variability in CM3 demonstrates how sophisticated models are potentially inappropriate tools for small forcing scenarios. On the other hand, we find that MAGICC can easily and rapidly provide robust data on climate responses to changes in methane emissions with clear signals unfettered by variability. We are therefore able to build confidence in using reduced-complexity climate models such as MAGICC for purposes of understanding the climate implications of methane mitigation.</p

Effectiveness and Feasibility of the Early Start Denver Model Implemented in a Group-Based Community Childcare Setting

A recent study documented the efficacy of the Early Start Denver Model (ESDM) delivered in a 1:1 fashion. In the current study we investigated the effectiveness and feasibility of the ESDM in the context of a long-day care community service, with a child-staff ratio of 1:3. Outcomes of 27 preschoolers with ASD undergoing 15–25 h per week of ESDM over 12 months were compared to those of 30 peers with ASD undergoing a different intervention program delivered in a similar community long-day care service. Children in both groups made gains in cognitive, adaptive and social skills. Participants in the ESDM group showed significantly higher gains in developmental rate and receptive language.No Full Tex

Late Byzantine Mineral Soda High Alumina Glasses from Asia Minor: A New Primary Glass Production Group

The chemical characterisation of archaeological glass allows the discrimination between different glass groups and the identification of raw materials and technological traditions of their production. Several lines of evidence point towards the large-scale production of first millennium CE glass in a limited number of glass making factories from a mixture of Egyptian mineral soda and a locally available silica source. Fundamental changes in the manufacturing processes occurred from the eight/ninth century CE onwards, when Egyptian mineral soda was gradually replaced by soda-rich plant ash in Egypt as well as the Islamic Middle East. In order to elucidate the supply and consumption of glass during this transitional period, 31 glass samples from the assemblage found at Pergamon (Turkey) that date to the fourth to fourteenth centuries CE were analysed by electron microprobe analysis (EPMA) and by laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). The statistical evaluation of the data revealed that the Byzantine glasses from Pergamon represent at least three different glass production technologies, one of which had not previously been recognised in the glass making traditions of the Mediterranean. While the chemical characteristics of the late antique and early medieval fragments confirm the current model of glass production and distribution at the time, the elemental make-up of the majority of the eighth- to fourteenth-century glasses from Pergamon indicate the existence of a late Byzantine glass type that is characterised by high alumina levels. Judging from the trace element patterns and elevated boron and lithium concentrations, these glasses were produced with a mineral soda different to the Egyptian natron from the Wadi Natrun, suggesting a possible regional Byzantine primary glass production in Asia Minor

Crop Updates 2005 - Cereals

This session covers thirty six papers from different authors: WHEAT AGRONOMY 1. Optimum sowing time of new wheat varieties in Western Australia, Darshan Sharma, Brenda Shackley, Mohammad Amjad, Christine M. Zaicou-Kunesch and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture 2. Wheat varieties updated in ‘Flowering Calculator’: A model predicting flowering time, B. Shackley, D. Tennant, D. Sharma and C.M. Zaicou-Kunesch, Department of Agriculture 3. Plant populations for wheat varieties, Christine M. Zaicou-Kunesch, Wal Anderson, Darshan Sharma, Brenda Shackley and Mohammad Amjad, Department of Agriculture 4. New wheat cultivars response to fertiliser nitrogen in four major agricultural regions of Western Australia, Mohammad Amjad, Wal Anderson, Brenda Shackley, Darshan Sharma and Christine Zaicou-Kunesch, Department of Agriculture 5. Agronomic package for EGA Eagle Rock, Steve Penny, Department of Agriculture 6. Field evaluation of eastern and western wheats in large-scale farmer’s trials, Mohammad Amjad, Ben Curtis and Veronika Reck, Department of Agriculture 7. New wheat varieties for a changing environment, Richard Richards, CSIRO Plant Industry; Canberra 8. Farmers can profitably minimise exposure to frost! Garren Knell, Steve Curtin and David Sermon, ConsultAg 9. National Variety Trials, Alan Bedggood, Australian Crops Accreditation System; Horsham 10. Preharvest-sprouting tolerance of wheat in the field, T.B. Biddulph1, T.L. Setter2, J.A. Plummer1 and D.J. Mares3; 1Plant Biology; FNAS, University of Western Australia; 2Department of Agriculture, 3School of Agriculture and Wine, University of Adelaide 11. Waterlogging induces high concentration of Mn and Al in wheat genotypes in acidic soils, H. Khabaz-Saberi, T. Setter, I. Waters and G. McDonald, Department of Agriculture 12. Agronomic responses of new wheat varieties in the Northern Agricultural Region, Christine M. Zaicou-Kunesch and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture 13. Agronomic responses of new wheat varieties in the Central Agricultural Region of WA, Darshan Sharma, Steve Penny and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture 14. EGA Eagle Rock tolerance to metribuzin and its mixtures, Harmohinder Dhammu, David Nicholson and Chris Roberts, Department of Agriculture 15. Herbicide tolerance of new bread wheats, Harmohinder Dhammu1 and David Nicholson2, Department of Agriculture NUTRITION 16. The impact of fertiliser placement, timing and rates on nitrogen-use efficiency, Stephen Loss, CSBP Ltd 17. Cereals deficient in potassium are most susceptible to some leaf diseases, Ross Brennan and Kith Jayasena, Department of Agriculture 18. Responses of cereal yields to potassium fertiliser type, placement and timing, Eddy Pol, CSBP Limited 19. Sulphate of Potash, the potash of choice at seeding, Simon Teakle, United Farmers Co-operative 20. Essential disease management for successful barley production, K. Jayasena, R. Loughman, C. Beard, B. Paynter, K. Tanaka, G. Poulish and A. Smith, Department of Agriculture 21. Genotypic differences in potassium efficiency of wheat, Paul Damon and Zed Rengel, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of Western Australia 22. Genotypic differences in potassium efficiency of barley, Paul Damon and Zed Rengel, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of Western Australia 23. Investigating timing of nitrogen application in wheat, Darshan Sharma and Lionel Martin, Department of Agriculture, and Muresk Institute of Agriculture, Curtin University of Technology 24. Nutrient timing requirements for increased crop yields in the high rainfall cropping zone, Narelle Hill, Ron McTaggart, Dr Wal Anderson and Ray Tugwell, Department of Agriculture DISEASES 25. Integrate strategies to manage stripe rust risk, Geoff Thomas, Robert Loughman, Ciara Beard, Kith Jayasena and Manisha Shankar, Department of Agriculture 26. Effect of primary inoculum level of stripe rust on variety response in wheat, Manisha Shankar, John Majewski and Robert Loughman, Department of Agriculture 27. Disease resistance update for wheat varieties in WA, M. Shankar, J.M. Majewski, D. Foster, H. Golzar, J. Piotrowski and R. Loughman, Department of Agriculture 28. Big droplets for wheat fungicides, Rob Grima, Agronomist, Elders 29. On farm research to investigate fungicide applications to minimise leaf disease impacts in wheat, Jeff Russell and Angie Roe, Department of Agriculture, and Farm Focus Consultants PESTS 30. Rotations for nematode management, Vivien A. Vanstone, Sean J. Kelly, Helen F. Hunter and Mena C. Gilchrist, Department of Agriculture 31. Investigation into the adaqyacy of sealed farm silos in Western Australia to control phosphine-resistant Rhyzopertha dominica, C.R. Newman, Department of Agriculture 32.Insect contamination of cereal grain at harvest, Svetlana Micic and Phil Michael, Department of Agriculture 33. Phosure – Extending the life of phosphine, Gabrielle Coupland and Ern Kostas, Co-operative Bulk Handling SOIL 34. Optimum combinations of ripping depth and tine spacing for increasing wheat yield, Mohammed Hamza and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture 35. Hardpan penetration ability of wheat roots, Tina Botwright Acuña and Len Wade, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia MARKETS 36. Latin America: An emerging agricultural powerhouse, Ingrid Richardson, Food and Agribusiness Research, Rabobank; Sydne

Polymorphisms in the Estrogen Receptor 1 and Vitamin C and Matrix Metalloproteinase Gene Families Are Associated with Susceptibility to Lymphoma

BACKGROUND: Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is the fifth most common cancer in the U.S. and few causes have been identified. Genetic association studies may help identify environmental risk factors and enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 768 coding and haplotype tagging SNPs in 146 genes were examined using Illumina GoldenGate technology in a large population-based case-control study of NHL in the San Francisco Bay Area (1,292 cases 1,375 controls are included here). Statistical analyses were restricted to HIV- participants of white non-Hispanic origin. Genes involved in steroidogenesis, immune function, cell signaling, sunlight exposure, xenobiotic metabolism/oxidative stress, energy balance, and uptake and metabolism of cholesterol, folate and vitamin C were investigated. Sixteen SNPs in eight pathways and nine haplotypes were associated with NHL after correction for multiple testing at the adjusted q<0.10 level. Eight SNPs were tested in an independent case-control study of lymphoma in Germany (494 NHL cases and 494 matched controls). Novel associations with common variants in estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1) and in the vitamin C receptor and matrix metalloproteinase gene families were observed. Four ESR1 SNPs were associated with follicular lymphoma (FL) in the U.S. study, with rs3020314 remaining associated with reduced risk of FL after multiple testing adjustments [odds ratio (OR) = 0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.23-0.77) and replication in the German study (OR = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.06-0.94). Several SNPs and haplotypes in the matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP3) and MMP9 genes and in the vitamin C receptor genes, solute carrier family 23 member 1 (SLC23A1) and SLC23A2, showed associations with NHL risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest a role for estrogen, vitamin C and matrix metalloproteinases in the pathogenesis of NHL that will require further validation

Relationship between e-cigarette point of sale recall and e-cigarette use in secondary school children: a cross-sectional study

Background There has been a rapid increase in the retail availability of e-cigarettes in the UK and elsewhere. It is known that exposure to cigarette point-of-sale (POS) displays influences smoking behaviour and intentions in young people. However, there is as yet no evidence regarding the relationship between e-cigarette POS display exposure and e-cigarette use in young people. Methods This cross sectional study survey was conducted in four high schools in Scotland. A response rate of 87% and a total sample of 3808 was achieved. Analysis was by logistic regression on e-cigarette outcomes with standard errors adjusted for clustering within schools. The logistic regression models were adjusted for recall of other e-cigarette adverts, smoking status, and demographic variables. Multiple chained imputation was employed to assess the consistency of the findings across different methods of handling missing data. Results Adolescents who recalled seeing e-cigarettes in small shops were more likely to have tried an e-cigarette (OR 1.92 99% CI 1.61 to 2.29). Adolescents who recalled seeing e-cigarettes for sale in small shops (OR 1.80 99% CI 1.08 to 2.99) or supermarkets (OR 1.70 99% CI 1.22 to 2.36) were more likely to intend to try them in the next 6 months. Conclusions This study has found a cross-sectional association between self-reported recall of e-cigarette POS displays and use of, and intention to use, e-cigarettes. The magnitude of this association is comparable to that between tobacco point of sale recall and intention to use traditional cigarettes in the same sample. Further longitudinal data is required to confirm a causal relationship between e-cigarette point of sale exposure and future use in young people.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Genome-Wide Meta-Analysis Identifies Regions on 7p21 (AHR) and 15q24 (CYP1A2) As Determinants of Habitual Caffeine Consumption

We report the first genome-wide association study of habitual caffeine intake. We included 47,341 individuals of European descent based on five population-based studies within the United States. In a meta-analysis adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and eigenvectors of population variation, two loci achieved genome-wide significance: 7p21 (P = 2.4×10−19), near AHR, and 15q24 (P = 5.2×10−14), between CYP1A1 and CYP1A2. Both the AHR and CYP1A2 genes are biologically plausible candidates as CYP1A2 metabolizes caffeine and AHR regulates CYP1A2

The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis

Background: Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources. Methods and Findings: We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data - medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York - were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-96lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5-17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest. Conclusions: These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0-4 and adults 18-64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed.published_or_final_versio

Genome-Wide Association Studies in Atherosclerosis

Cardiovascular disease remains the major cause of worldwide morbidity and mortality. Its pathophysiology is complex and multifactorial. Because the phenotype of cardiovascular disease often shows a marked heritable pattern, it is likely that genetic factors play an important role. In recent years, large genome-wide association studies have been conducted to decipher the molecular mechanisms underlying this heritable and prevalent phenotype. The emphasis of this review is on the recently identified 17 susceptibility loci for coronary artery disease. Implications of their discovery for biology and clinical medicine are discussed. A description of the landscape of human genetics in the near future in the context of next-generation sequence technologies is provided at the conclusion of this review