Reductions of Hidden Information Sources

In all but special circumstances, measurements of time-dependent processes reflect internal structures and correlations only indirectly. Building predictive models of such hidden information sources requires discovering, in some way, the internal states and mechanisms. Unfortunately, there are often many possible models that are observationally equivalent. Here we show that the situation is not as arbitrary as one would think. We show that generators of hidden stochastic processes can be reduced to a minimal form and compare this reduced representation to that provided by computational mechanics--the epsilon-machine. On the way to developing deeper, measure-theoretic foundations for the latter, we introduce a new two-step reduction process. The first step (internal-event reduction) produces the smallest observationally equivalent sigma-algebra and the second (internal-state reduction) removes sigma-algebra components that are redundant for optimal prediction. For several classes of stochastic dynamical systems these reductions produce representations that are equivalent to epsilon-machines.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures; 30 citations; Updates at http://www.santafe.edu/~cm

Executive Function and Falls in Older Adults: New Findings from a Five-Year Prospective Study Link Fall Risk to Cognition

Background: Recent findings suggest that executive function (EF) plays a critical role in the regulation of gait in older adults, especially under complex and challenging conditions, and that EF deficits may, therefore, contribute to fall risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate if reduced EF is a risk factor for future falls over the course of 5 years of follow-up. Secondary objectives were to assess whether single and dual task walking abilities, an alternative window into EF, were associated with fall risk. Methodology/Main Results We longitudinally followed 256 community-living older adults (age: 76.4±4.5 yrs; 61% women) who were dementia free and had good mobility upon entrance into the study. At baseline, a computerized cognitive battery generated an index of EF, attention, a closely related construct, and other cognitive domains. Gait was assessed during single and dual task conditions. Falls data were collected prospectively using monthly calendars. Negative binomial regression quantified risk ratios (RR). After adjusting for age, gender and the number of falls in the year prior to the study, only the EF index (RR: .85; CI: .74–.98, p = .021), the attention index (RR: .84; CI: .75–.94, p = .002) and dual tasking gait variability (RR: 1.11; CI: 1.01–1.23; p = .027) were associated with future fall risk. Other cognitive function measures were not related to falls. Survival analyses indicated that subjects with the lowest EF scores were more likely to fall sooner and more likely to experience multiple falls during the 66 months of follow-up (p<0.02). Conclusions/Significance: These findings demonstrate that among community-living older adults, the risk of future falls was predicted by performance on EF and attention tests conducted 5 years earlier. The present results link falls among older adults to cognition, indicating that screening EF will likely enhance fall risk assessment, and that treatment of EF may reduce fall risk

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Elevated risk of invasive group a streptococcal disease and host genetic variation in the human leukocyte antigen locus

Invasive group A streptococcal (GAS) disease is uncommon but carries a high casefatality rate relative to other infectious diseases. Given the ubiquity of mild GAS infections, it remains unclear why healthy individuals will occasionally develop lifethreatening infections, raising the possibility of host genetic predisposition. Here, we present the results of a case-control study including 43 invasive GAS cases and 1,540 controls. Using HLA imputation and linear mixed-models, we find each copy of the HLA-DQA1*01:03 allele associates with a two-fold increased risk of disease (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3-4.4, P=0.009), an association which persists with classical HLA typing of a subset of cases and analysis with an alternative large control dataset with validated HLA data. Moreover, we propose the association is driven by the allele itself rather than the background haplotype. Overall this finding provides impetus for further investigation of the immunogenetic basis of this devastating bacterial disease

A Novel Synthetic TLR-4 Agonist Adjuvant Increases the Protective Response to a Clinical-Stage West Nile Virus Vaccine Antigen in Multiple Formulations.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted member of the Flaviviridae family that has emerged in recent years to become a serious public health threat. Given the sporadic nature of WNV epidemics both temporally and geographically, there is an urgent need for a vaccine that can rapidly provide effective immunity. Protection from WNV infection is correlated with antibodies to the viral envelope (E) protein, which encodes receptor binding and fusion functions. Despite many promising E-protein vaccine candidates, there are currently none licensed for use in humans. This study investigates the ability to improve the immunogenicity and protective capacity of a promising clinical-stage WNV recombinant E-protein vaccine (WN-80E) by combining it with a novel synthetic TLR-4 agonist adjuvant. Using the murine model of WNV disease, we find that inclusion of a TLR-4 agonist in either a stable oil-in-water emulsion (SE) or aluminum hydroxide (Alum) formulation provides both dose and dosage sparing functions, whereby protection can be induced after a single immunization containing only 100 ng of WN-80E. Additionally, we find that inclusion of adjuvant with a single immunization reduced viral titers in sera to levels undetectable by viral plaque assay. The enhanced protection provided by adjuvanted immunization correlated with induction of a Th1 T-cell response and the resultant shaping of the IgG response. These findings suggest that inclusion of a next generation adjuvant may greatly enhance the protective capacity of WNV recombinant subunit vaccines, and establish a baseline for future development