Evidence-Based Interventions and Strategies for the Grand Challenges Approach: The Need for Judgement

What is the value of evidence-based interventions in addressing “Grand Challenges”? Building upon the EPOS Grand Challenges work (Sakhrani et al., 2017), this paper explores whether evidence-based approaches developed for management and policy are relevant to addressing Grand Challenges. It discusses the criticisms of the Evidence-based Management approach and argues that evidence is a necessary, but not sufficient input in the decisionmaking process of addressing Grand Challenges

Cluster randomised trials in the medical literature: two bibliometric surveys

Background: Several reviews of published cluster randomised trials have reported that about half did not take clustering into account in the analysis, which was thus incorrect and potentially misleading. In this paper I ask whether cluster randomised trials are increasing in both number and quality of reporting. Methods: Computer search for papers on cluster randomised trials since 1980, hand search of trial reports published in selected volumes of the British Medical Journal over 20 years. Results: There has been a large increase in the numbers of methodological papers and of trial reports using the term 'cluster random' in recent years, with about equal numbers of each type of paper. The British Medical Journal contained more such reports than any other journal. In this journal there was a corresponding increase over time in the number of trials where subjects were randomised in clusters. In 2003 all reports showed awareness of the need to allow for clustering in the analysis. In 1993 and before clustering was ignored in most such trials. Conclusion: Cluster trials are becoming more frequent and reporting is of higher quality. Perhaps statistician pressure works

A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Appointment time: Disability and neoliberal workfare temporalities

My primary interest in this article is to reveal the complexity of neoliberal temporalities on the lives of disabled people forced to participate in workfare regimes to maintain access to social security measures and programming. Through drawing upon some of the contemporary debates arising within the social study of time, this article explicates what Jessop refers to as the sovereignty of time that has emerged with the global adoption of neoliberal workfare regimes. It is argued that the central role of temporality within the globalizing project of neoliberal workfare and the positioning of disability within these global macro-structural processes requires the sociological imagination to return to both time as a theme and time as a methodology

Residual confounding after adjustment for age: a minor issue in breast cancer screening effectiveness

Residual confounding, after adjustment for age, is the major criticism of observational studies on breast cancer screening effectiveness. We developed realistic scenarios for the prevalence and strength of risk factors on screened and not screened groups, and explored the impact of residual confounding bias. Our results demonstrate that residual confounding bias is a minor issue in screening programme evaluations

The significance of the Van Nuys prognostic index in the management of ductal carcinoma in situ

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Debate regarding the benefit of radiotherapy after local excision of ductal carcinoma <it>in situ </it>(DCIS) continues. The Van Nuys Prognostic Index (VNPI) is thought to be a useful aid in deciding which patients are at increased risk of local recurrence and who may benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy (RT). Recently published interim data from the Sloane project has showed that the VNPI score did significantly affect the chances of getting planned radiotherapy in the UK, suggesting that British clinicians may already be using this scoring system to assist in decision making. This paper independently assesses the prognostic validity of the VNPI in a British population.</p> <p>Patients and methods</p> <p>A retrospective review was conducted of all patients (n = 215) who underwent breast conserving surgery for DCIS at a single institution between 1997 – 2006. No patients included in the study received additional radiotherapy or hormonal treatment. Kaplan Meier survival curves were calculated, to determine disease free survival, for the total sample and a series of univariate analyses were performed to examine the value of various prognostic factors including the VNPI. The log-rank test was used to determine statistical significance of differential survival rates. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to analyze the significance of the individual components of the VNPI. All analyses were conducted using SPSS software, version 14.5.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean follow-up period was 53 months (range 12–97, SD19.9). Ninety five tumours were high grade (44%) and 84 tumours exhibited comedo necrosis (39%). The closest mean initial excision margin was 2.4 mm (range 0–22 mm, standard deviation 2.8) and a total of 72 tumours (33%) underwent further re-excision. The observed and the actuarial 8 year disease-free survival rates in this study were 91% and 83% respectively. The VNPI score and the presence of comedo necrosis were the only statistically significant prognostic indicators (P < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This follow-up study of 215 patients with DCIS treated with local excision and observation alone is one of the largest series in which rates of recurrence are unaffected by radiation therapy, hormone manipulation or chemotherapy. It has afforded us the opportunity to assess the prognostic impact of patient and tumour characteristics free of any potentially confounding treatment related influences. The results suggest that the VNPI can be used to identify a subset of patients who are at risk of local recurrence and who may potentially benefit from RT.</p

Placebo Adherence and Its Association with Morbidity and Mortality in the Studies of Left Ventricular Dysfunction

A provocative finding from several double-blind clinical trials has been the association between greater adherence to placebo study medication and better health outcomes. We used data from the Studies of Left Ventricular Dysfunction (SOLVD) Treatment Trial (SOLVD-TT) and the SOLVD Prevention Trial (SOLVD-PT) to examine whether such associations could be validated and to examine several sources of bias and potential confounding. Survival analytic methods were used to estimate the association between placebo adherence and several health outcomes, employing a number of modeling techniques to test for the existence of alternative explanations for the association. Higher adherence was defined as having taken ≥75% of prescribed study medication. Higher placebo adherence was associated with improved overall survival in both SOLVD-TT and SOLVD-PT [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.35 to 0.79 and HR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.38 to 0.71, respectively]. Associations were similar for fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular or coronary heart disease events. Adjustment for both modifiable and non-modifiable cardiac risk factors (including age, gender, diabetes, blood pressure, smoking, weight, alcohol use, and levels of education) had minimal effect on the strength of the association. Little evidence of bias was found as an explanation for this relationship. In these two trials, better adherence to placebo was associated with markedly superior health outcomes, including total in-study mortality and incident cardiovascular events. No important confounders were identified. These data suggest there may exist strong but unrecognized determinants of health outcomes for which placebo adherence is a marker