Are we overestimating the permanence of cellulose triacetate cinematographic films? A mathematical model for the vinegar syndrome

Among the earliest signs of degradation in cellulose triacetate cinematographic films is the generation of acetic acid due to hydrolytic deacetylation of the polymer, marked by an increase in the acidity of the films and emissions of acetic acid leading to a characteristic vinegar odour. We propose a mathematical model for predicting the onset of the vinegar syndrome which accounts for the autocatalytic effect of acetic acid on the deacetylation reaction. Model parameters are estimated from previously published experimental data from other research groups. These show free acidity changes in cellulose triacetate films subjected to accelerated ageing at temperatures of 70–100 °C. The model is validated against a different set of previously published experimental data of cellulose triacetate films aged at 21 °C and 35 °C, at 20, 35 and 50% relative humidity. The model demonstrates good quantitative agreement with the published experimental data. Predictions of film permanence at lower temperatures, similar to those present in the archives in which the films are typically stored, are made and compared with the predictions of film conservation guidelines. The results indicate that film permanence may be overestimated by existing guidelines, which do not account for autocatalysis in their modelling of the deacetylation rate. Our results suggest that cold storage, a common film conservation strategy, may be less effective at inhibiting degradation than previously thought. As cold storage typically requires film to be kept in confined spaces with limited air movement, conditions which promote autocatalysis, the inclusion of autocatalysis in our model is highly applicable to simulating this environment

Vaccine induced herd immunity for control of respiratory syncytial virus disease in a low-income country setting

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is globally ubiquitous, and infection during the first six months of life is a major risk for severe disease and hospital admission; consequently RSV is the most important viral cause of respiratory morbidity and mortality in young children. Development of vaccines for young infants is complicated by the presence of maternal antibodies and immunological immaturity, but vaccines targeted at older children avoid these problems. Vaccine development for young infants has been unsuccessful, but this is not the case for older children (> 6m). Would vaccinating older children have a significant public health impact? We developed a mathematical model to explore the benefits of a vaccine against RSV. Methods and Findings: We have used a deterministic age structured model capturing the key epidemiological characteristics of RSV and performed a statistical maximum-likelihood fit to age-specific hospitalization data from a developing country setting. To explore the effects of vaccination under different mixing assumptions, we included two versions of contact matrices: one from a social contact diary study, and the second a synthesised construction based on demographic data. Vaccination is assumed to elicit an immune response equivalent to primary infection. Our results show that immunisation of young children (5–10m) is likely to be a highly effective method of protection of infants (<6m) against hospitalisation. The majority benefit is derived from indirect protection (herd immunity). A full sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling of the parameter space shows that our results are robust to model structure and model parameters. Conclusions: This result suggests that vaccinating older infants and children against RSV can have a major public health benefit

Continuous Invasion by Respiratory Viruses Observed in Rural Households During a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Seasonal Outbreak in Coastal Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Households are high-intensity close-contact environments favorable for transmission of respiratory viruses, yet little is known for low-income settings. METHODS: Active surveillance was completed on 47 households in rural coastal Kenya over 6 months during a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) season. Nasopharyngeal swabs (NPSs) were taken from 483 household members twice weekly irrespective of symptoms. Using molecular diagnostics, NPSs from 6 households were screened for 15 respiratory viruses and the remainder of households only for the most frequent viruses observed: rhinovirus (RV), human coronavirus (HCoV; comprising strains 229E, OC43, and NL63), adenovirus (AdV), and RSV (A and B). RESULTS: Of 16928 NPSs tested for the common viruses, 4259 (25.2%) were positive for ≥1 target; 596 (13.8%) had coinfections. Detection frequencies were 10.5% RV (1780), 7.5% HCoV (1274), 7.3% AdV (1232), and 3.2% RSV (537). On average, each household and individual had 6 and 3 different viruses detected over the study period, respectively. Rhinovirus and HCoV were detected in all the 47 households while AdV and RSV were detected in 45 (95.7%) and 40 (85.1%) households, respectively. The individual risk of infection over the 6-month period was 93.4%, 80.1%, 71.6%, 61.5%, and 37.1% for any virus, RV, HCoV, AdV, and RSV, respectively. NPSs collected during symptomatic days and from younger age groups had higher prevalence of virus detection relative to respective counterparts. RSV was underrepresented in households relative to hospital admission data. CONCLUSIONS: In this household setting, respiratory virus infections and associated illness are ubiquitous. Future studies should address the health and economic implications of these observations

An intensive, active surveillance reveals continuous invasion and high diversity of rhinovirus in households

We report on infection patterns in 5 households (78 participants) delineating the natural history of human rhinovirus (HRV). Nasopharyngeal collections were obtained every 3–4 days irrespective of symptoms, over a 6-month period, with molecular screening for HRV and typing by sequencing VP4/VP2 junction. Overall, 311/3468 (8.9%) collections were HRV positive: 256 were classified into 3 species: 104 (40.6%) HRV-A; 14 (5.5%) HRV-B, and 138 (53.9%) HRV-C. Twenty-six known HRV types (13 HRV-A, 3 HRV-B, and 10 HRV-C) were identified (A75, C1, and C35 being most frequent). We observed continuous invasion and temporal clustering of HRV types in households (range 5–13 over 6 months). Intrahousehold transmission was independent of clinical status but influenced by age. Most (89.0%) of HRV infection episodes were limited to <14 days. Individual repeat infections were frequent (range 1–7 over 6 months), decreasing with age, and almost invariably heterotypic, indicative of lasting type-specific immunity and low cross-type protection

Strength of Coronal Mass Ejection-Driven Shocks Near the Sun, and Its Importance in Predicting Solar Energetic Particle Events

Coronal shocks are important structures, but there are no direct observations of them in solar and space physics. The strength of shocks plays a key role in shock-related phenomena, such as radio bursts and solar energetic particle (SEP) generation. This paper presents an improved method of calculating Alfven speed and shock strength near the Sun. This method is based on using as many observations as possible, rather than one-dimensional global models. Two events, a relatively slow CME on 2001 September 15 and a very fast CME on 2000 June 15, are selected to illustrate the calculation process. The calculation results suggest that the slow CME drove a strong shock, with Mach number of 3.43 - 4.18, while the fast CME drove a relatively weak shock, with Mach number of 1.90 - 3.21. This is consistent with the radio observations, which find a stronger and longer decameter-hectometric (DH) type II radio burst during the first event, and a short DH type II radio burst during the second event. In particular, the alculation results explain the observational fact that the slow CME produced a major solar energetic particle (SEP) event, while the fast CME did not. Through a comparison of the two events, the importance of shock strength in predicting SEP events is addressed

The Case for a Low Extragalactic Gamma-ray Background

Measurements of the diffuse extragalactic gamma-ray background (EGRB) are complicated by a strong Galactic foreground. Estimates of the EGRB flux and spectrum, obtained by modeling the Galactic emission, have produced a variety of (sometimes conflicting) results. The latest analysis of the EGRET data found an isotropic flux I_x=1.45+-0.05 above 100 MeV, in units of 10^-5 s^-1 cm^-2 sr^-1. We analyze the EGRET data in search for robust constraints on the EGRB flux, finding the gamma-ray sky strongly dominated by Galactic foreground even at high latitudes, with no conclusive evidence for an additional isotropic component. The gamma-ray intensity measured towards the Galactic poles is similar to or lower than previous estimates of I_x. The high latitude profile of the gamma-ray data is disk-like for 40<|b[deg]|<70, and even steeper for |b|>70; overall it exhibits strong Galactic features and is well fit by a simple Galactic model. Based on the |b|>40 data we find that I_x<0.5 at a 99% confidence level, with evidence for a much lower flux. We show that correlations with Galactic tracers, previously used to identify the Galactic foreground and estimate I_x, are not satisfactory; the results depend on the tracers used and on the part of the sky examined, because the Galactic emission is not linear in the Galactic tracers and exhibits spectral variations across the sky. The low EGRB flux favored by our analysis places stringent limits on extragalactic scenarios involving gamma-ray emission, such as radiation from blazars, intergalactic shocks and production of ultra-high energy cosmic rays and neutrinos. We suggest methods by which future gamma-ray missions such as GLAST and AGILE could indirectly identify the EGRB.Comment: Accepted for publication in JCAP. Increased sizes of polar regions examined, and added discussion of spectral data. Results unchange

The improved ARTEMIS IV multichannel solar radio spectrograph of the University of Athens

We present the improved solar radio spectrograph of the University of Athens operating at the Thermopylae Satellite Telecommunication Station. Observations now cover the frequency range from 20 to 650 MHz. The spectrograph has a 7-meter moving parabola fed by a log-periodic antenna for 100 650 MHz and a stationary inverted V fat dipole antenna for the 20 100 MHz range. Two receivers are operating in parallel, one swept frequency for the whole range (10 spectrums/sec, 630 channels/spectrum) and one acousto-optical receiver for the range 270 to 450 MHz (100 spectrums/sec, 128 channels/spectrum). The data acquisition system consists of two PCs (equipped with 12 bit, 225 ksamples/sec ADC, one for each receiver). Sensitivity is about 3 SFU and 30 SFU in the 20 100 MHz and 100 650 MHz range respectively. The daily operation is fully automated: receiving universal time from a GPS, pointing the antenna to the sun, system calibration, starting and stopping the observations at preset times, data acquisition, and archiving on DVD. We can also control the whole system through modem or Internet. The instrument can be used either by itself or in conjunction with other instruments to study the onset and evolution of solar radio bursts and associated interplanetary phenomena.Comment: Experimental Astronomy, Volume 21, Issue 1, pp.41-5

Whole genome analysis of local Kenyan and global sequences unravels the epidemiological and molecular evolutionary dynamics of RSV genotype ON1 strains

The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) group A variant with the 72-nucleotide duplication in the G gene, genotype ON1, was first detected in Kilifi in 2012 and has almost completely replaced previously circulating genotype GA2 strains. This replacement suggests some fitness advantage of ON1 over the GA2 viruses, and might be accompanied by important genomic substitutions in ON1 viruses. Close observation of such a new virus introduction over time provides an opportunity to better understand the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of the pathogen. We have generated and analyzed 184 RSV-A whole genome sequences (WGS) from Kilifi (Kenya) collected between 2011 and 2016, the first ON1 genomes from Africa and the largest collection globally from a single location. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that RSV-A transmission into this coastal Kenya location is characterized by multiple introductions of viral lineages from diverse origins but with varied success in local transmission. We identify signature amino acid substitutions between ON1 and GA2 viruses within genes encoding the surface proteins (G, F), polymerase (L) and matrix M2-1 proteins, some of which were identified as positively selected, and thereby provide an enhanced picture of RSV-A diversity. Furthermore, five of the eleven RSV open reading frames (ORF) (i.e. G, F, L, N and P), analyzed separately, formed distinct phylogenetic clusters for the two genotypes. This might suggest that coding regions outside of the most frequently studied G ORF play a role in the adaptation of RSV to host populations with the alternative possibility that some of the substitutions are nothing more than genetic hitchhikers. Our analysis provides insight into the epidemiological processes that define RSV spread, highlights the genetic substitutions that characterize emerging strains, and demonstrates the utility of large-scale WGS in molecular epidemiological studies

Risk factors and outcomes for the Q151M and T69 insertion HIV-1 resistance mutations in historic UK data

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of HIV-1 resistance to antiretroviral therapies (ART) has declined in high-income countries over recent years, but drug resistance remains a substantial concern in many low and middle-income countries. The Q151M and T69 insertion (T69i) resistance mutations in the viral reverse transcriptase gene can reduce susceptibility to all nucleoside/tide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors, motivating the present study to investigate the risk factors and outcomes associated with these mutations. METHODS: We considered all data in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database for blood samples obtained in the period 1997-2014. Where available, treatment history and patient outcomes were obtained through linkage to the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study. A matched case-control approach was used to assess risk factors associated with the appearance of each of the mutations in ART-experienced patients, and survival analysis was used to investigate factors associated with viral suppression. A further analysis using matched controls was performed to investigate the impact of each mutation on survival. RESULTS: A total of 180 patients with Q151M mutation and 85 with T69i mutation were identified, almost entirely from before 2006. Occurrence of both the Q151M and T69i mutations was strongly associated with cumulative period of virological failure while on ART, and for Q151M there was a particular positive association with use of stavudine and negative association with use of boosted-protease inhibitors. Subsequent viral suppression was negatively associated with viral load at sequencing for both mutations, and for Q151M we found a negative association with didanosine use but a positive association with boosted-protease inhibitor use. The results obtained in these analyses were also consistent with potentially large associations with other drugs. Analyses were inconclusive regarding associations between the mutations and mortality, but mortality was high for patients with low CD4 at detection. CONCLUSIONS: The Q151M and T69i resistance mutations are now very rare in the UK. Our results suggest that good outcomes are possible for people with these mutations. However, in this historic sample, viral load and CD4 at detection were important factors in determining prognosis