Among the earliest signs of degradation in cellulose triacetate cinematographic films is the generation of acetic acid due to hydrolytic deacetylation of the polymer, marked by an increase in the acidity of the films and emissions of acetic acid leading to a characteristic vinegar odour. We propose a mathematical model for predicting the onset of the vinegar syndrome which accounts for the autocatalytic effect of acetic acid on the deacetylation reaction. Model parameters are estimated from previously published experimental data from other research groups. These show free acidity changes in cellulose triacetate films subjected to accelerated ageing at temperatures of 70–100 °C. The model is validated against a different set of previously published experimental data of cellulose triacetate films aged at 21 °C and 35 °C, at 20, 35 and 50% relative humidity. The model demonstrates good quantitative agreement with the published experimental data. Predictions of film permanence at lower temperatures, similar to those present in the archives in which the films are typically stored, are made and compared with the predictions of film conservation guidelines. The results indicate that film permanence may be overestimated by existing guidelines, which do not account for autocatalysis in their modelling of the deacetylation rate. Our results suggest that cold storage, a common film conservation strategy, may be less effective at inhibiting degradation than previously thought. As cold storage typically requires film to be kept in confined spaces with limited air movement, conditions which promote autocatalysis, the inclusion of autocatalysis in our model is highly applicable to simulating this environment
