A dangerous world implicit theory: examining overlap with other criminogenic constructs

Ward and Keenan (1999, Child molesters’ implicit theories. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 14(8), 821–838. doi: 10.1177/088626099014008003) hypothesised that some individuals who sexually offend against children have belief systems through which they perceive the world as an inherently dangerous place – labelled a dangerous world implicit theory (DWIT). Individuals with a DWIT are hypothesised to either (1) believe it is necessary to punish women and/or children who are perceived as threatening, or (2) see children as more accepting than adults, and as capable of understanding and gratifying the individual’s needs and desires. In two online studies (N = 113 and N = 123) we examined the possible overlap between the DWIT and four other constructs: hostile attribution bias, hostile sexism, emotional congruence with children, and a ‘children as sexual beings’ implicit theory. Results suggest that identifying with an individual holding DWIT overlaps considerably with some of the other constructs, but not with hostile attribution bias – a finding that ran counter to our hypothese

An exemplar-based approach to risk assessment: Validating the risk management systems instrument

Using a sample of federal probationers, this study examines the predictive validity of the Risk Management Systems assessment instrument. The results indicate the RMS is predictive of arrest, technical violation, and unsuccessful termination from supervision

Are the Major Risk/Need Factors Predictive of Both Female and Male Reoffending?: A Test With the Eight Domains of the Level of Service/Case Management Inventory

Objetivo: Identificar cuáles de los ocho factores de riesgo del modelo de riesgo-necesidad-responsividad (RNR) de Andrews y Bonta (2010) son mejores predictores de la conducta delictiva en los jóvenes mexicanos. Método: Fueron seleccionadas variables de la Encuesta de Cohesión Social para la Prevención de la Violencia y la Delincuencia (ECOPRED, 2014) que presentaran relación con los ocho factores de riesgo, las cuales fueron sintetizadas mediante un análisis factorial. Posteriormente, se llevó a cabo una regresión logística binaria, la variable de respuesta fue haber tenido o no un arresto policial en lo que iba del año, lo cual permitió generar un modelo con mejor capacidad para predecir si los jóvenes presentarían arrestos. Resultados: En el modelo generado interactúan cinco de los ocho factores de riesgo: historial de conducta antisocial, asociación criminal, abuso de sustancias, pobres relaciones familiares, y problemas en el trabajo y la escuela. Discusión: Los resultados obtenidos coinciden con estudios realizados en otros países, en los que los ocho factores del modelo RNR no siempre se presentan en población juvenil, ya que existen factores (como la edad, la cultura, el sexo o la geografía) que interactúan con las variables, provocando el aumento o la disminución de su influencia en la conducta delictiva

Predicting individual differences in criminal attitudes from offender characteristics: a study among Dutch prisoners

Criminal Justice: Legitimacy, accountability, and effectivit

Predictive validity of the Washington State Juvenile Court Pre-Screen Assessment in the Netherlands: the development of a new scoring system

This study examined the predictive validity of the Washington State Juvenile Pre-Screen Assessment (WSJCA pre-screen) in the Netherlands. Previous research conducted in the United States showed the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen to be modest, as is the case with the predictive validity of most other risk assessment instruments for juveniles. Therefore, it was also examined whether the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen can be improved by modifying the scoring procedure. The sample consisted of 520 youths who had been referred to the juvenile probation service by court. The present study showed the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen in the Netherlands to be modest too, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of .625. Modifying the scoring procedure by means of chi-squared automatic interaction detector analyses significantly improved the predictive validity to an AUC of .702. The modified scoring procedure is time-saving because only variables that uniquely contribute to the prediction of recidivism are included, which at the same time leads to a more accurate prediction of recidivism