Motivation, description, and summary status of geomechanical andgeochemical modeling studies in Task D of the InternationalDECOVALEX-THMC Project

The DECOVALEX project is an international cooperativeproject initiated by SKI, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, withparticipation of about 10 international organizations. The general goalof this project is to encourage multidisciplinary interactive andcooperative research on modelling coupledthermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geologic formationsin support of the performance assessment for underground storage ofradioactive waste. One of the research tasks, initiated in 2004 by theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), addresses the long-term impact ofgeomechanical and geochemical processes on the flow conditions near wasteemplacement tunnels. Within this task, four international research teamsconduct predictive analysis of the coupled processes in two genericrepositories, using multiple approaches and different computer codes.Below, we give an overview of the research task and report its currentstatus

Coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical analyses of the Yucca Mountain Drift Scale Test-Comparison of field measurements to predictions of four different numerical models

The Yucca Mountain Drift Scale Test (DST) is a multiyear, large-scale underground heating test designed to study coupled thermal–hydrological–mechanical–chemical behavior in unsaturated fractured and welded tuff. As part of the international cooperative code-comparison project DEvelopment of COupled models and their VALidation against EXperiments, four research teams used four different numerical models to simulate and predict coupled thermal–hydrological–mechanical (THM) processes at the DST. The simulated processes included heat transfer, liquid and vapor water movements, rock-mass stress and displacement, and stress-induced changes in fracture permeability. Model predictions were evaluated by comparison to measurements of temperature, water saturation, displacement, and air permeability. The generally good agreement between simulated and measured THM data shows that adopted continuum model approaches are adequate for simulating relevant coupled THM processes at the DST. Moreover, thermal-mechanically induced rock-mass deformations were reasonably well predicted using elastic models, although some individual displacements appeared to be better captured using an elasto-plastic model. It is concluded that fracture closure/opening caused by change in normal stress across fractures is the dominant mechanism for thermal-stress-induced changes in intrinsic fracture permeability at the DST, whereas fracture shear dilation appears to be less significant. This indicates that such changes in intrinsic permeability at the DST, which are within one order of magnitude, are likely to be mostly reversible

Results From an International Simulation Study on Couples Thermal, Hydrological, and Mechanical (THM) Processes Near Geological Nuclear Waste Repositories

As part of the ongoing international DECOVALEX project, four research teams used five different models to simulate coupled thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (THM) processes near waste emplacement drifts of geological nuclear waste repositories. The simulations were conducted for two generic repository types, one with open and the other with back-filled repository drifts, under higher and lower postclosure temperatures, respectively. In the completed first model inception phase of the project, a good agreement was achieved between the research teams in calculating THM responses for both repository types, although some disagreement in hydrological responses is currently being resolved. In particular, good agreement in the basic thermal-mechanical responses was achieved for both repository types, even though some teams used relatively simplified thermal-elastic heat-conduction models that neglected complex near-field thermal-hydrological processes. The good agreement between the complex and simplified process models indicates that the basic thermal-mechanical responses can be predicted with a relatively high confidence level

The in vitro toxicology of Swedish snus

Three commercial brands of Swedish snus (SWS), an experimental SWS, and the 2S3 reference moist snuff were each tested in four in vitro toxicology assays. These assays were: Salmonella reverse mutation, mouse lymphoma, in vitro micronucleus, and cytotoxicity. Water extractions of each of the 5 products were tested using several different concentrations; the experimental SWS was also extracted using dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO). Extraction procedures were verified by nicotine determinations. Results for SWS in the mutagenicity assays were broadly negative: there were occasional positive responses, but these were effectively at the highest concentration only (concentrations well above those suggested by regulatory guidelines), and were often associated with cytotoxicity. The 2S3 reference was unequivocally positive in one of the three conditions of the micronucleus assay (MNA), at the highest concentration only. Positive controls produced the expected responses in each assay. The SWS data are contrasted with data reported for combusted tobacco in the form of cigarettes, where strongly positive responses have been routinely reported for mutagenicity and cytotoxicity. These negative findings in a laboratory setting concur with the large amount of epidemiological data from Sweden, data showing that SWS are associated with considerably lower carcinogenic potential when compared with cigarettes

Trends in postoperative radiotherapy delay and the effect on survival in breast cancer patients treated with conservation surgery

The adequate timing of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) in breast cancer has become a subject of increasing interest in recent years. A population-based study was undertaken to determine the influence of demographic and clinical factors on the postoperative RT delay in patients treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and to assess the impact of delay on survival. In total, 7800 breast cancer patients treated with BCS and adjuvant RT between 1986 and 1998 in Yorkshire were included in the study. The median interval between surgery and the start of RT (S-RT interval) was 8 weeks (7 weeks for chemotherapy negative and 11 for chemotherapy positive patients). This interval increased substantially over time from 5 weeks during 1986-1988, irrespective of patients' chemotherapy status, to 10 and 17 weeks among chemotherapy negative and chemotherapy positive patients, respectively, in 1997-1998. The S-RT interval was also significantly influenced by travel time to RT centre, year and at which RT centre patient had the treatment (

Geomechanical/ Geochemical Modeling Studies onducted Within the International DECOVALEX Project

The DECOVALEX project is an international cooperative project initiated by SKI, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, with participation of about 10 international organizations. The general goal of this project is to encourage multidisciplinary interactive and cooperative research on modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geologic formations in support of the performance assessment for underground storage of radioactive waste. One of the research tasks, initiated in 2004 by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), addresses the long-term impact of geomechanical and geochemical processes on the flow conditions near waste emplacement tunnels. Within this task, four international research teams conduct predictive analysis of the coupled processes in two generic repositories, using multiple approaches and different computer codes. Below, we give an overview of the research task and report its current status

Survival of patients with metastatic breast cancer: twenty-year data from two SEER registries

BACKGROUND: Many researchers are interested to know if there are any improvements in recent treatment results for metastatic breast cancer in the community, especially for 10- or 15-year survival. METHODS: Between 1981 and 1985, 782 and 580 female patients with metastatic breast cancer were extracted respectively from the Connecticut and San Francisco-Oakland registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The lognormal statistical method to estimate survival was retrospectively validated since the 15-year cause-specific survival rates could be calculated using the standard life-table actuarial method. Estimated rates were compared to the actuarial data available in 2000. Between 1991 and 1995, further 752 and 632 female patients with metastatic breast cancer were extracted respectively from the Connecticut and San Francisco-Oakland registries. The data were analyzed to estimate the 15-year cause-specific survival rates before the year 2005. RESULTS: The 5-year period (1981–1985) was chosen, and patients were followed as a cohort for an additional 3 years. The estimated 15-year cause-specific survival rates were 7.1% (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.8–12.4) and 9.1% (95% CI, 3.8–14.4) by the lognormal model for the two registries of Connecticut and San Francisco-Oakland respectively. Since the SEER database provides follow-up information to the end of the year 2000, actuarial calculation can be performed to confirm (validate) the estimation. The Kaplan-Meier calculation for the 15-year cause-specific survival rates were 8.3% (95% CI, 5.8–10.8) and 7.0% (95% CI, 4.3–9.7) respectively. Using the 1991–1995 5-year period cohort and followed for an additional 3 years, the 15-year cause-specific survival rates were estimated to be 9.1% (95% CI, 3.8–14.4) and 14.7% (95% CI, 9.8–19.6) for the two registries of Connecticut and San Francisco-Oakland respectively. CONCLUSIONS: For the period 1981–1985, the 15-year cause-specific survival for the Connecticut and the San Francisco-Oakland registries were comparable. For the period 1991–1995, there was not much change in survival for the Connecticut registry patients, but there was an improvement in survival for the San Francisco-Oakland registry patients