90 research outputs found
Agricultural projections: a view from the FAO
Presents a framework for agricultural projections, findings based on this framework, and next steps for model development
ΠΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π½Π΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΠΈ Π² ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ° Π»ΠΈΠ½Π³Π²ΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΠΈ
ΠΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΡ Π²ΡΠ΅Ρ
ΡΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΆΠΈΠ·Π½ΠΈ ΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠ²Π΅ΠΊΠ° ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠΊΠΎ ΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠΆΠ΄Π°Π΅ΡΡΡ Π²ΠΎ ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡ
Π½Π°ΡΠΊΠ°, Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ ΠΈ Π² ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ·ΡΠΊΠ°. ΠΠΎ ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Ρ
Π»ΠΈΠ½Π³Π²ΠΈΡΡΠΎΠ² ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡ ΡΠ·ΡΠΊΠ° ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ Π½Π°ΡΠΊΠ° ΠΎ
Π²Π·Π°ΠΈΠΌΠΎΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΡΠ·ΡΠΊΠΎΠΌ ΠΈ Π΅Π³ΠΎ ΠΎΠΊΡΡΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ, ΡΠ°ΠΊ ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ ΡΠ·ΡΠΊ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΡΠ΅Ρ Π½Π΅ ΡΠΎΠ»ΡΠΊΠΎ Π² ΡΠΎΠ·Π½Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π³ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡ
Π½Π° Π½Π΅ΠΌ ΠΈ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΈΡΡΠ΅Ρ ΡΠΎΠ»ΡΠΊΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈ Π²Π·Π°ΠΈΠΌΠΎΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ
Ρ Π΄ΡΡΠ³ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΌΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠ°Π½ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΈ Ρ ΠΈΡ
ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΎΠΊΡΡΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ. Π ΡΡΠΎΠΌ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ½ΡΡΠΈΠ΅ Β«ΡΠ·ΡΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΅ ΡΠΎΠ·Π½Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅Β» ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΠ΅Ρ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΡΡ ΠΊΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠ½Ρ Π²Π·Π°ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ·ΠΈ ΠΊΡΠ»ΡΡΡΡΡ ΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΆΠΈΠ·Π½ΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΡΠΌΠ°, ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠ°Ρ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ΅Ρ Π΅Π³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ΅ ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΅ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΈ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ·ΡΠΊΠ°
Income distribution trends and future food demand
This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel's law. Engel's law establishes that as income increases, households' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively
Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Sequential Macro-Micro Modelling with Behavioral Microsimulations
Analyzing the poverty and distributional impact of macro events requires understanding how shocks or policy changes on the macro level affect household income and consumption. It is clear that this poses a formidable task, which of course raises the question of the appropriate methodology to address such questions. This paper presents one possible approach: A sequential methodology that combines a macroeconomic model with a behavioral micro-simulation. We discuss the merits and shortcomings of this approach with a focus on developing country applications with a short to medium run time horizon. - This chapter is a re-print of: Lay, J. (2010). Sequential macro-micro modelling with behavioural microsimulations. International Journal of Microsimulation, 3(1), 24-34
Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change
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