Agricultural projections: a view from the FAO

Presents a framework for agricultural projections, findings based on this framework, and next steps for model development

Динамические тенденции в становлении предмета лингвоэкологии

Экологизация всех сфер общественной жизни и самого человека широко обсуждается во многих наука, а также и в области языка. Во многих работах лингвистов экология языка определяется как наука о взаимоотношениях между языком и его окружением, так как язык существует не только в сознании говорящих на нем и функционирует только при взаимоотношениях с другими коммуникантами и с их социальным и природным окружением. В этом контексте понятие «языковое сознание» представляет собой специфическую картину взаимосвязи культуры и общественной жизни социума, которая определяет его психологическое своеобразие и специфические черты данного языка

Income distribution trends and future food demand

This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel's law. Engel's law establishes that as income increases, households' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively

Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Sequential Macro-Micro Modelling with Behavioral Microsimulations

Analyzing the poverty and distributional impact of macro events requires understanding how shocks or policy changes on the macro level affect household income and consumption. It is clear that this poses a formidable task, which of course raises the question of the appropriate methodology to address such questions. This paper presents one possible approach: A sequential methodology that combines a macroeconomic model with a behavioral micro-simulation. We discuss the merits and shortcomings of this approach with a focus on developing country applications with a short to medium run time horizon. - This chapter is a re-print of: Lay, J. (2010). Sequential macro-micro modelling with behavioural microsimulations. International Journal of Microsimulation, 3(1), 24-34

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change

Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks: the role of ISIMIP

The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socio-economic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change