Many people never switch telecoms provider; what is different about switchers? ESRI Research Bulletin 2018/7

Many consumers have never switched telecoms company, despite the efforts of regulators to encourage shopping around and to make switching easier. A significant number of consumers need to be willing to compare offers and to consider switching to better ones if the benefits of competition are going to be spread more widely. In particular, if there are identifiable groups of consumers who are unlikely to consider switching, they may end up with worse deals than other consumers. This research investigated which consumers are more inclined to switch providers of broadband, mobile phone and landline services. It looked not only at individual characteristics like age, family structure and income, but also at characteristics of the service and how it is used, such as whether it is ‘bundled’ or whether people in the household use smart phones to browse the internet. The study also recorded how much money people think they might save by switching and whether people had experienced ‘bill-shock’ (an unexpectedly high bill)

The framing of options for retirement: Experimental tests for policy. ESRI WP604, December 2018

We hypothesise and confirm a substantial framing effect in relation to whether people opt for an annuity on retirement. Two laboratory experiments were conducted in collaboration with a national pensions regulator. Individuals demanded a higher annuity rate when pensions were initially conceived of as an accumulated lump sum – a “nest egg” or “pension pot” – than when they were initially conceived of as retirement income. The effect was recorded using both a matching and a choice procedure. Effect sizes implied more than a doubling of demand for annuities at market rates. While mindful of the need for caution in generalising from hypothetical laboratory studies, the findings have potentially strong policy implications. The framing of pension products in marketing materials and disclosures may have substantial effects on financial risks borne in later life

Development of a Hydrogeological Model of the Borrowdale Volcanics at Sellafield

International audienceThis work has arisen out of recent developments within the radioactive waste research programme managed by Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Pollution, UK (HMIP)*, to develop an integrated flow and transport model for the potential deep radioactive waste repository at Sellafield. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in model predictions, is the characterisation of the hydrogeological properties of the underlying strata, in particular, of the Borrowdale Volcanic Group (BVG) within which the repository is to be located. Analysis of the available borehole data (that released by the proponent company, Nirex, by December 1995) for the BVG formation has indicated a dual regime consisting of flow within faults and flow within the matrix (or an equivalent porous medium containing micro-fractures). Significant relationships between permeability, depth and the presence and orientation of faults have been identified; they account for a variation of up to 6 orders of magnitude in mean permeability measurements. This can be explained in part by the effect of the orientation of the current maximum principal stress directions within the BVG: however, it is likely that permeability is also dependent on the existence of fracture families, which cannot be effectively identified from the data currently available. These analyses have enabled considerable insight to be gained into the dominant features of flow within the BVG. The conceptual hydrogeological model derived here will have a significant effect on the outcome and reliability of future radionuclide transport predictions in the Sellafield area

The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers

Perceptions and forecasts of inflation have the potential to impact on a range of economic outcomes. We reveal large, systematic overestimation of inflation by Irish consumers, which varies by social group. In contrast to previous work in this area, our models suggest the upward bias and the variation by social group should be considered substantially separate phenomena. We also offer evidence that inflation misperceptions are linked to attitudes and intentions with respect to consumption and saving and, hence, are likely to affect household decision-making. The findings therefore raise issues regarding the relationship between financial literacy and consumer behaviour.

Motivating social distancing during the Covid-19 pandemic: An online experiment. ESRI Working Paper No. 658 April 2020

Social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic will save lives. We tested communication strategies to promote social distancing via an online experiment (N = 500) commissioned by Ireland’s Department of Health. A control group saw a current informational poster. Two treatment groups saw similar posters with messages that highlighted: (i) the risk of transmission to identifiable persons vulnerable to COVID-19; (ii) the exponential nature of transmission. We then measured judgements of behaviours previously identified by focus groups as “marginal” (meaning that people were not sure whether they were advisable, such meeting others outdoors, or visiting parents). We recorded intention to undertake behaviours and stated acceptability of behaviours. Our hypotheses, that both treatments would increase participants’ caution about marginal behaviours, were preregistered (i.e. lodged with an international organisation for open science before data collection). Results confirmed the hypotheses. The findings suggest that the thought of infecting vulnerable people or large numbers of people can motivate social distancing. This has implications for communications strategies. The stud

Survival extrapolation using the poly-Weibull model.

Recent studies of (cost-) effectiveness in cardiothoracic transplantation have required estimation of mean survival over the lifetime of the recipients. In order to calculate mean survival, the complete survivor curve is required but is often not fully observed, so that survival extrapolation is necessary. After transplantation, the hazard function is bathtub-shaped, reflecting latent competing risks which operate additively in overlapping time periods. The poly-Weibull distribution is a flexible parametric model that may be used to extrapolate survival and has a natural competing risks interpretation. In addition, treatment effects and subgroups can be modelled separately for each component of risk. We describe the model and develop inference procedures using freely available software. The methods are applied to two problems from cardiothoracic transplantation

Surplus identification with non-linear returns

We present evidence from two experiments designed to quantify the impact of cognitive constraints on consumers' ability to identify surpluses. Participants made repeated forced-choice decisions about whether products conferred surpluses, comparing one or two plainly perceptible attributes against displayed prices. Returns to attributes varied in linearity, scale and relative weight. Despite the apparent simplicity of this task, in which participants were incentivised and able to attend fully to all relevant information, surplus identification was surprisingly imprecise and subject to systematic bias. Performance was unaffected by monotonic non-linearities in returns, but non-monotonic non-linearities reduced the likelihood of detecting a surplus. Regardless of the shape of returns, learning was minimal and largely confined to initial exposures. Although product value was objectively determined, participants exhibited biases previously observed in subjective discrete choice, suggesting common cognitive mechanisms. These findings have implications for consumer choice models and for ongoing attempts to account for cognitive constraints in applied microeconomic contexts

Interventions to increase physical activity in disadvantaged communities: A review of behavioural mechanisms. ESRI Working Paper No. 646 December 2019

Physical inactivity is now a significant driver of health and social inequalities among socioeconomically disadvantaged communities and poses a major challenge to policymakers, worldwide. Although a vast amount of research has focused on designing and evaluating interventions to increase physical activity, there remains little consensus on which interventions are likely to work. In this narrative review, we build on previous reviews by not only examining what interventions tend to work but by trying to understand why certain interventions tend to work, while others do not, through the lens of behavioural science. We present a behavioural framework through which the existing body of physical activity research could be viewed, in order to identify potentially effective mechanisms that would be likely to work in their intended domain. Our analysis finds that while there is evidence that the physical and educational environment matter for increasing levels of physical activity, interventions are more likely to be successful where they involve a social component. We conclude that a behaviourally informed physical activity intervention would thus employ a set of focused educational and socially-mediated behavioural mechanisms, within an appropriate physical environment

An experiment for regulatory policy on broadband speed advertising. ESRI WP641, November 2019

Identifying whether hyperbolic advertising claims influence consumers is important for consumer protection, but differentiating mere “puffery” from misleading advertising is not straightforward. We conducted a pre-registered experiment to determine whether pseudo-technical advertising claims about broadband speed bias consumer choice. We tested whether these claims lead consumers to (i) make suboptimal choices and (ii) choose faster, more expensive broadband packages than they otherwise would. We also tested a potential policy response, consisting of consumer information on broadband speeds and how they are advertised. One-in-five consumers chose a provider advertising “lightning fast” broadband over another offering the same speed at a cheaper price. Puffery also led consumers to choose faster, more expensive packages than consumers who saw no such claims. The information intervention (i) decreased the proportion of suboptimal decisions, (ii) increased the likelihood that consumers switched package, and (iii) improved understanding of speed descriptions. The findings suggest that a relatively soft regulatory intervention may benefit broadband consumers

Cystic fibrosis mice carrying the missense mutation G551D replicate human genotype phenotype correlations

We have generated a mouse carrying the human G551D mutation in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene (CFTR) by a one-step gene targeting procedure. These mutant mice show cystic fibrosis pathology but have a reduced risk of fatal intestinal blockage compared with 'null' mutants, in keeping with the reduced incidence of meconium ileus in G551D patients. The G551D mutant mice show greatly reduced CFTR-related chloride transport, displaying activity intermediate between that of cftr(mlUNC) replacement ('null') and cftr(mlHGU) insertional (residual activity) mutants and equivalent to approximately 4% of wild-type CFTR activity. The long-term survival of these animals should provide an excellent model with which to study cystic fibrosis, and they illustrate the value of mouse models carrying relevant mutations for examining genotype-phenotype correlations