Determinants of Red Meat Trade Flows

International Relations/Trade,

Testing the predictability and efficiency of securitized real estate markets

This paper conducts tests of the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for 14 national public real estate markets. Random walk properties of equity prices influence the return dynamics and determine the trading strategies of investors. To examine the stochastic properties of local real estate index returns and to test the hypothesis that public real estate stock prices follow a random walk, the single variance ratio tests of Lo and MacKinlay (1988) as well as the multiple variance ratio test of Chow and Denning (1993) are employed. Weak-form market efficiency is tested directly using non-parametric runs tests. Empirical evidence shows that weekly stock prices in major securitized real estate markets do not follow a random walk. The empirical findings of return predictability suggest that investors might be able to develop trading strategies allowing them to earn excess returns compared to a buy-and-hold strategy

Further evidence on the (in-) efficiency of the U.S. housing market

Extending the controversial findings from relevant literature on testing the efficient market hypothesis for the U.S. housing market, the results from the monthly and quarterly transaction-based Case-Shiller indices from 1987 to 2009 provide further empirical evidence on the rejection of the weak-form version of efficiency in the U.S. housing market. In addition to conducting parametric and non-parametric tests, we apply technical trading strategies to test whether or not the inefficiencies can be exploited by investors earning excess returns. The empirical findings suggest that investors might be able to obtain excess returns from both autocorrelation- and moving average-based trading strategies compared to a buy-and-hold strategy

A State-level Analysis of the Impact of a TTIP Harmonization of Food Safety Standards on US Agricultural Exports

Abstract The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement has the potential to intensify agricultural trade between the United States and the European Union. In particular, the cooperation on non-tariff barriers including food safety standards and sanitary and phytosanitary issues will expand agricultural trade. Using bilateral trade data at the U.S. state level, we empirically assess the impacts of a TTIP harmonization of food safety regulatory standards on US state agricultural exports to the E.U. We provide the first economic analysis of the possible TTIPagreement with policy implications for individual U.S. states. Quarterly trade series pertaining to major ports in the US and the MRLs that exemplify differences in food safety standards across the Atlantic are used. Deploying state-of-the-art gravity models and probit equations that address the high frequency of missing trade, we find that MRLs significantly diminish agri-food trade. The results reveal that a 10% reduction in MRL stringency would promote trade by nearly 6%. If the final provisions endorse the Codex MRLs, the TTIP agreement would boost US agricultural exports to the EU by more than one billion dollars a year. Coastal states with large agricultural sectors benefit the most from the reforms induced by a TTIP agreement. Acknowledgement : The authors acknowledge the financial support from the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (USDA NIFA grant award 2015-38821-24356 and, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Evans-Allen project number SCX-101-08-15. Kermit Rose provided able computer programming and data tabulation assistanc

Trade Creation, Trade Diversion effects of NAFTA on vegetable and fruit trade flows

The present study empirically estimates and evaluates the impact of NAFTA in the vegetable and fruit trade between the USA and Mexico. The import price elasticities suggest that imports are not sensitive to price changes. However, the income elasticities of import demand vary by commodities. As expected, the vegetables and fruits exhibit strong seasonality while the import dynamics are commodity-specific. The amount of trade expansion is estimated using import price elasticities from a dynamic import demand model for the commodities. This study demonstrates that there is trade expansion attributable to NAFA in the vegetable and fruit trade. The amount of Trade Creation (TC) is greater than the amount of Trade Diversion (TD) in most commodities examined.vegetable trade; fruit trade; import model; NAFTA; trade creation; trade diversion; USA; United States; Mexico.

Pediatric Autoimmune or Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: Metronidazole Effectiveness on Biochemical Data, Bile Acid Profile, and Gut Microbiota: A Pilot Study

Objectives: Autoimmune hepatitis and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) can both be present, resulting in autoimmune sclerosing cholangitis (ASC). PSC physiopathology could be based on the cross-talk between gut microbiota and bile acids (BAs); antibiotics are an innovative therapy. This pilot study assesses metronidazole (MTZ)'s effectiveness in ASC or PSC patients according to the stage of the disease, and its effects on biochemical parameters, BA profiles, and gut microbiota. Methods: ASC or PSC patients from Cliniques universitaires Saint-Luc's pediatric hepato-gastroenterology division were enrolled retrospectively and prospectively; both datasets were merged. MTZ was administered over at least 14 days on top of standard treatment (ursodeoxycholic acid, azathioprine, and steroids). Fecal and blood samples were collected before (T0) and at MTZ day 14 (T14). Sustained biochemical remission was defined by the reduction of transaminases (AST and ALT), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and CRP until 12 months post-MTZ. Results: A total of 18 patients (mean age, 13.2 ± 4.5 years) were enrolled (13 ASC and 5 PSC), and divided in remission or relapse patients. CRP, AST, ALT, and GGT levels decreased post-MTZ in both groups (excepting GGT in relapse patients), with decreases between T0 and T14 being significant for AST and ALT. Relapse patients were older (P = 0.0351) and in late-disease stage, with mainly large-duct PSC (P = 0.0466). In remission patients, the mean plasma relative abundance of hydrophilic BA increased by +6.3% (P = 0.0391) after MTZ. Neither at baseline nor T14, there were significant differences in gut microbiota recorded. Conclusion: These data are likely indicative of long-term benefits following MTZ therapy at early-stage ASC or PSC, with increased hydrophilic BA abundance. Multicenter prospective studies are needed. Keywords: autoimmune sclerosing cholangitis; bile acid profile; gut microbiota dysbiosis; metronidazole; overlap syndrome; primary sclerosing cholangitis