A tractable model of precautionary reserves, net foreign assets, or sovereign wealth funds

We model the motives for residents of a country to hold foreign assets, including the precautionary motive that has been omitted from much previous literature as intractable. Our model captures many of the principal insights from the existing specialized literature on the precautionary motive, deriving a convenient formula for the economy’s target value of assets. The target is the level of assets that balances impatience, prudence, risk, intertemporal substitution, and the rate of return. We use the model to shed light on two topical questions: The “upstream” flows of capital from developing countries to advanced countries, and the long-run impact of resorbing global financial imbalance

Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy

The link between monetary policy and asset price movements has been of perennial interest to policy makers. In this paper we consider the potential case for pre-emptive monetary restrictions when asset price reversals can have serious effects on real output. First, we provide some historical background on two famous asset price reversals: the U.S. stock market crash of 1929 and the bursting of the Japanese bubble in 1989. We then present some stylized facts on boom-bust dynamics in stock and property prices in developed economies. We then discuss the case for a pre-emptive monetary policy in the context of a stylized 'Dynamic New Keynesian' framework with collateral constraints in the productive sector. We find that whether such a policy is warranted depends on the economic conditions in a complex, non-linear way. The optimal policy cannot be summarized by a simple policy rule of the type considered in the inflation-targeting literature.

An analysis of tropopause pressure and total ozone correlations

A study of the relationship between total ozone and tropopause pressure was carried out using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and National Meteorological Center (NMC) global analyses. The medium scales generally show correlations greater than 0.6 throughout the middle latitudes of both hemispheres with some regions exceeding 0.8. The areas of highest correlations seem to be associated with the storm track regions of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. A detailed spectral analysis is performed for the medium scales on five pairs of time series of area averaged tropopause pressure and total ozone. In middle latitudes, total ozone and tropopause pressure exhibit generally similar distributions in the power spectrum. In the subtropics and tropics the power in ozone drops off more rapidly with increasing frequency than the power in tropopause pressure. Only in the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes does one find a clear association between increased power in ozone and tropopause pressure and maxima in the coherency spectrum. Results for large scales are more complicated, showing generally positive correlations at middle latitudes

Therapeutic Riding and Adaptive Yoga as a Focus of Adaptive Sports Participation for Individuals with Upper Limb Absence (ULA)

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Protection, Conservation, and Restoration of the Fort Peck Tribes’ Manning Lake Wetland Complex on the Fort Peck Indian Reservation

The Manning Lake Wetland Complex (MLWC), located on the Fort Peck Indian Reservation, is an incredible and unique landscape providing vital breeding and rearing habitat for a diversity of waterfowl, migratory birds, songbirds and other species, including at least 10 of conservation concern. The Fort Peck Assiniboine and Sioux Tribes and their partners have been working toward the protection, conservation, and restoration of the 22,000-ac wetland complex since 2004, when nine natural resource professionals from tribal, state, and federal agencies and programs formed a working group. Since then, thanks in part to grants from USDI Fish and Wildlife Service, Environmental Protection Agency, and Montana Audubon, great progress has been made toward reaching this goal. This presentation will introduce the Manning Lake Wetlands Tribal Wildlife Refuge and share our methods and accomplishments to date which include 1) designation of the Complex by Montana Audubon as An Important Bird Area; 2) Tribal establishment and management of 4000 ac as a Tribal Wildlife Refuge with plans to include additional acres in the future through purchase or long term conservation leases; 3) development of a habitat management plan and a wetland monitoring and assessment plan; 4) creation of a reservation specific wetland rapid assessment method; 5) creation of a baseline macroinvertebrate, bird, and amphibian species list; 6) development of water quality references; and 7) creation of habitat, vegetation associations, and land usage maps

Insulin dose response curves and factors affecting insulin sensitivity in horses

Three experiments were conducted to further study the use of intravenous insulin injection to measure insulin sensitivity in horses. In the first experiment, glucose responses to multiple doses of recombinant human insulin were compared in insulin sensitive and insensitive mares. Regression lines describing the responses in insensitive mares had less (P = 0.003) steep slopes and greater (P = 0.006) effective doses at 50% response (ED50) compared to sensitive mares. Curvilinear regression models provided a good fit (R2 = 0.95) for the prediction of ED50 from the individual responses to 50 mU/kg BW insulin. The second experiment estimated the repeatability of the glucose responses to a fixed dose of insulin in 41 horses (mares and geldings) injected twice, between 7 and 14 days apart. Overall agreement between the responses was significant (P \u3c 0.001) but not high enough to be predictive (R2 value = 0.384). Intra-horse coefficients of variation (CV) ranged from 0 to 68.7%, and averaged 23%. Mares and geldings were similar in their repeatabilities. Horses in the bottom half of the sensitivity rankings had a greater (P = 0.03) average intra-horse CV (28.7 ± 4.6%) than horses in the top half (16.7 ± 2.2%). In the third experiment (single switch-back design), glucose responses to a fixed dose of insulin were compared after an overnight (about 12 hours) versus a 24-hour period of feed deprivation in geldings previously determined to be insulin sensitive (n = 4) versus insensitive (n = 4). The longer period of feed deprivation decreased (P = 0.06) the percentage decrease in blood glucose concentrations, indicating a lesser sensitivity relative to the 12-hour period of deprivation. Insulin sensitivity also affected (P = 0.0003) the glucose response, with sensitive geldings exhibiting the greater response. It was concluded that the response to a single dose of insulin is often a good predictor of a horse\u27s insulin sensitivity, but that the lack of repeatability in some horses could lead to errors in diagnosis. The decrease in glucose response seen after 24 hours of feed deprivation is likely due to the elevation of fatty acid concentrations in the blood

A Comparison of Learning Subjective and Traditional Probability in Middle Grades

The emphasis given to probability and statistics in the K-12 mathematics curriculum has brought attention to the various approaches to probability and statistics concepts, as well as how to teach these concepts. Teachers from fourth, fifth, and sixth grades from a small suburban Catholic school engaged their students (n=87) in a study to compare learning traditional probability concepts to learning traditional and subjective probability concepts. The control group (n=44) received instruction in traditional probability, while the experimental group (n=43) received instruction in traditional and subjective probability. A Multivariate Analysis of Variance and a Bayesian t-test were used to analyze pretest and posttest scores from the Making Decisions about Chance Questionnaire (MDCQ). Researcher observational notes, teacher journal entries, student activity worksheet explanations, pre- and post-test answers, and student interviews were coded for themes. All groups showed significant improvement on the post-MDCQ (p \u3c .01). There was a disordinal interaction between the combined fifth- and sixth-grade experimental group (n=28) and the control group (n=28), however the mean difference in performance on the pre-MDCQ and post-MDCQ was not significant (p=.096). A Bayesian t-test indicated that there is reasonable evidence to believe that the mean of the experimental group exceeded the mean of the control group. Qualitative data showed that while students have beliefs about probabilistic situations based on their past experiences and prior knowledge, and often use this information to make probability judgments, they find traditional probability problems easier than subjective probability. Further research with different grade levels, larger sample sizes or different activities would develop learning theory in this area and may provide insight about probability judgments previously labeled as misconceptions by researchers

Free vibrations of thin-walled semicircular graphite-epoxy composite frames

A detailed study is made of the effects of variations in lamination and material parameters of thin walled composite frames on their vibrational characteristics. The structures considered are semicircular thin walled frames with I and J sections. The flanges and webs of the frames are modelled by using 2-D shell and plate finite elements. A mixed formulation is used with the fundamental unknowns consisting of both the generalized displacements and stress resultants in the frames. The frequencies and modes predicted by the 2-D finite element model are compared with those obtained from experiments, as well as with the predictions of a 1-D thin walled beam finite element model. A detailed study is made of the sensitivity of the vibrational response to variations in the fiber orientation, material properties of the individual layers, and boundary conditions