Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: a review of methods and research needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail

Forecasting the Response of Earth\u27s Surface to Future Climatic and Land Use Changes: A Review of Methods and Research Needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth\u27s surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail

Episodic intraplate deformation of stable continental margins: evidence from Late Neogene and Quaternary marine terraces, Cape Liptrap, Southeastern Australia

The Waratah Fault is a northeast trending, high angle, reverse fault in the Late Paleozoic Lachlan Fold Belt at Cape Liptrap on the Southeastern Australian Coast. It is susceptible to reactivation in the modern intraplate stress field in Southeast Australia and exhibits Late Pliocene to Late Pleistocene reactivation. Radiocarbon, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), and cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) dating of marine terraces on Cape Liptrap are used to constrain rates of displacement across the reactivated Waratah Fault. Six marine terraces, numbered Qt<sub>6</sub>–Tt<sub>1</sub> (youngest to oldest), are well developed at Cape Liptrap with altitudes ranging from ∼1.5 m to ∼170 m amsl, respectively. On the lowest terrace, Qt<sub>6</sub>, barnacles in wave-cut notches ∼1.5 m amsl, yielded a radiocarbon age of 6090–5880 Cal BP, and reflect the local mid-Holocene sea level highstand. Qt<sub>5</sub> yielded four OSL ages from scattered locations around the cape ranging from ∼80 ka to ∼130 ka. It formed during the Last Interglacial sea level highstand (MIS 5e) at ∼125 ka. Inner edge elevations (approximate paleo high tide line) for Qt<sub>5</sub> occur at distinctly different elevations on opposite sides of the Waratah Fault. Offsets of the inner edges across the fault range from 1.3 m to 5.1 m with displacement rates ranging from 0.01 mm/a to 0.04 mm/a. The most extensive terrace, Tt<sub>4</sub>, yielded four Early Pleistocene cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) ages: two apparent burial ages of 0.858 Ma ± 0.16 Ma and 1.25 Ma ± 0.265 Ma, and two apparent exposure ages of 1.071 Ma ± 0.071 Ma (<sup>10</sup>Be) and 0.798 Ma ± 0.066 Ma (<sup>26</sup>Al). Allowing for muonic production effects from insufficient burial depths, the depth corrected CRN burial ages are 1.8 Ma ± 0.56 Ma and 2.52 Ma ± 0.88 Ma, or Late Pliocene. A Late Pliocene age is our preferred age. Offsets of Tt<sub>4</sub> across the Waratah Fault range from a minimum of ∼20 m for terrace surface treads to a maximum of ∼70 m for terrace bedrock straths. Calculated displacement rates for Tt<sub>4</sub> range from 0.01 mm/a to 0.04 mm/a (using a Late Pliocene age, ∼2 Ma), identical to the rates calculated for the Last Interglacial terrace, Qt<sub>5</sub>. This indicates that deformation at Cape Liptrap has been ongoing at similar time-averaged rates at least since the Late Pliocene. The upper terraces in the sequence, Tt<sub>3</sub> (∼110 m amsl), Tt<sub>2</sub> (∼140 m) and Tt<sub>1</sub> (∼180 m) are undated, but most likely correlate to sea level highstands in the Neogene. Terraces Tt<sub>1</sub>–Tt<sub>4</sub> show an increasing northward tilt with age. The Waratah Fault forms a prominent structural boundary in the Lachlan Fold Belt discernible from airborne magnetic and bouger gravity anomalies. Seismicity and deformation are episodic. Episodic movement on the Waratah Fault may be coincident with sea level highstands since the Late Pliocene, possibly from increased loading and elevated pore pressure within the fault zone. This suggests that intervals between major seismic events could be on the order of 100 ka

Threshold constraints on the size, shape and stability of alluvial rivers

The geometry of alluvial river channels both controls and adjusts to the flow of water and sediment within them. This feedback between flow and form modulates flood risk, and the impacts of climate and land-use change. Considering widely varying hydro-climates, sediment supply, geology and vegetation, it is surprising that rivers follow remarkably consistent hydraulic geometry scaling relations. In this Perspective, we explore the factors governing river channel geometry, specifically how the threshold of sediment motion constrains the size and shape of channels. We highlight the utility of the near-threshold channel model as a suitable framework to explain the average size and stability of river channels, and show how deviations relate to complex higher-order behaviours. Further characterization of the sediment transport threshold and channel adjustment timescales, coupled with probabilistic descriptions of river geometry, promise the development of future models capable of capturing rivers’ natural complexity

Feedback between erosion and active deformation : geomorphic constraints from the frontal Jura fold-and-thrust belt (eastern France)

A regional tectono-geomorphic analysis indicates a Pliocene to recent rock uplift of the outermost segment of the Jura fold-and-thrust belt, which spatially coincides with the intra-continental Rhine-Bresse Transfer Zone. Elevated remnants of the partly eroded Middle Pliocene Sundgau-Foreˆt de Chaux Gravels identified by heavy mineral analyses allow for a paleo-topographic reconstruction that yields minimum regional Latest Pliocene to recent rock uplift rates of 0.05 ± 0.02 mm/year. This uplift also affected the Pleistocene evolution of the Ognon and Doubs drainage basins and is interpreted as being tectonically controlled. While the Ognon River was deflected from the uplifted region the Doubs deeply incised into it. Focused incision of the Doubs possibly sustained ongoing deformation along anticlines which were initiated during the Neogene evolution of the thin-skinned Jura fold-and-thrust belt. At present, this erosion-related active deformation is taking place synchronously with thick-skinned tectonics, controlling the inversion of the Rhine-Bresse Transfer Zone. This suggests local decoupling between seismogenic basement faulting and erosion-related deformation of the Mesozoic cover sequences

Chronofunctions of Heilu soil developed from Loess in Luochuan, on the chinese Loess plateau

Soil chronofunctions are an alternative for the quantification of soil-forming processes and underlie the modeling of soil genesis. To establish soil chronofunctions of a Heilu soil profile on Loess in Luochuan, selected soil properties and the 14C ages in the Holocene were studied. Linear, logarithmic, and third-order polynomial functions were selected to fit the relationships between soil properties and ages. The results indicated that third-order polynomial function fit best for the relationships between clay (< 0.002 mm), silt (0.002-0.02 mm), sand (0.02-2 mm) and soil ages, and a trend of an Ah horizon ocurrence in the profile. The logarithmic function indicated mainly variations of soil organic carbon and pH with time (soil age). The variation in CaCO3 content, Mn/Zr, Fe/Zr, K/Zr, Mg/Zr, Ca/Zr, P/Zr, and Na/Zr ratios with soil age were best described by three-order polynomial functions, in which the trend line showed migration of CaCO3 and some elements