Flood Proofing Low-Income Houses in India: an Application of Climate-Sensitive Probabilistic Benefit-Cost Analysis

Poor communities in high risk areas are disproportionately affected by disasters compared to their wealthy counterparts; yet, there are few analyses to guide public decisions on pro-poor investments in disaster risk reduction. This paper illustrates an application of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) for assessing investments in structural flood proofing of low-income, high-risk houses. The analysis takes account of climate change, which is increasingly viewed as an important consideration for assessing long-term investments. Specifically, the study focuses on the Rohini river basin of India and evaluates options for constructing non-permanent and permanent residential structures on a raised plinth to protect them against flooding. The estimates show a positive benefit-cost ratio for building new houses on a raised plinth, while the ratio is less than one for demolishing existing houses to rebuild on a raised plinth. Climate change is found to significantly affect the BCA results. From a policy perspective, the analysis demonstrates the potential economic returns of raised plinths for ‘building back better’ after disasters, or as a part of good housing design practice

The probability distribution of internal stresses in externally loaded 2D dislocation systems

The distribution of internal shear stresses in a 2D dislocation system is investigated when external shear stress is applied. This problem serves as a natural continuation of the previous work of Csikor and Groma (Csikor F F and Groma I 2004 Phys. Rev. B 58 2969), where analytical result was given for the stress distribution function at zero applied stress. First, the internal stress distribution generated by a set of randomly positioned ideal dislocation dipoles is studied. Analytical calculations are carried out for this case. The theoretical predictions are checked by numerical simulations showing perfect agreement. It is found that for real relaxed dislocation configurations the role of dislocation multipoles cannot be neglected, but the theory presented can still be applied.Comment: 27 pages, 20 figure

Disaster financing and poverty traps for poor households: Realities in Northern India

This paper addresses household-level disaster financing strategies of the poor in developing countries within the context of current poverty trap discussions. It presents findings on risk perceptions and loss financing practices in relation to floods and droughts in Uttar Pradesh, India. The study found that, due to financial shocks, the risk of households falling below the subsistence level and into a poverty trap is high. In this context, the paper links current approaches in household welfare-drive disaster risk financing to the survey results and provides policy recommendations

Prospect theory, mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges in current environmental policy. Appropriate policies intended to stimulate efficient adaptation and mitigation should not exclusively rely on the assumption of the homo oeconomicus, but take advantage of well-researched alternative behavioural patterns. Prospect theory provides a number of climate-relevant insights, such as the notion that evaluations of outcomes are reference dependent, and the relevance of perceived certainty of outcomes. This paper systematically reviews what prospect theory can offer to analyse mitigation and adaptation. It is shown that accounting for reference dependence and certainty effects contributes to a better understanding of some well-known puzzles in the climate debate, including (but not limited to) the different uptake of mitigation and adaptation amongst individuals and nations, the role of technical vs. financial adaptation, and the apparent preference for hard protection measures in coastal adaptation. Finally, concrete possibilities for empirical research on these effects are proposed

Place- and age-responsive disaster risk reduction for Hong Kong: Collaborative Place Audit and Social Vulnerability Index for elders

published_or_final_versio

Realized Resilience After Community Flood Events: A Global Empirical Study

Flooding is a major global natural hazard, with resulting disasters disproportionately affecting communities in developing countries. Enhancing community resilience is crucial for reducing flood risk, managing impacts and ultimately protecting sustainable development gains. Yet, there is little validated empirical evidence, particularly at the community scale, of the relationship between resilience characteristics before a natural hazard-event occurs and realized resilience after it. We present real-world testing of how a community’s pre-flood resilience capacities influence post-flood outcomes, using actual flood events from 66 communities in seven developing countries across the world. In doing so, we applied the Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC) approach, a validated framework and associated tool that dynamically assesses pre-flood resilience across multiple capitals to support the design of interventions for enhancing community disaster resilience. We specifically address the question how baseline community resilience, measured by 44 indicators called ‘sources of resilience’ influences flood impacts and post-flood outcomes that are measured across six themes (assets, livelihoods, life and health, lifelines, governance, and social norms). We observed that higher levels of natural, physical, and financial capital are associated with better post-event community outcomes and reduced flood impacts, such as the prevention of fatalities and serious injuries, the protection of public and private buildings and land, and livelihood stability. Importantly, in most cases, multiple sources of resilience worked together to influence a single outcome, highlighting the multidimensional nature of disaster resilience. Hence, our results emphasize the need for a multi-faceted and dynamic approach to building community flood resilience

Science for loss and damage. Findings and propositions

The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage” was established in 2013 and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015. Despite advances, the debate currently is broad, diffuse and somewhat confusing, while concepts, methods and tools, as well as directions for policy remain vague and often contested. This book, a joint effort of the Loss and Damage Network—a partnership effort by scientists and practitioners from around the globe—provides evidence-based insight into the L&D discourse by highlighting state-of-the-art research conducted across multiple disciplines, by showcasing applications in practice and by providing insight into policy contexts and salient policy options. This introductory chapter summarises key findings of the twenty-two book chapters in terms of five propositions. These propositions, each building on relevant findings linked to forward-looking suggestions for research, policy and practice, reflect the architecture of the book, whose sections proceed from setting the stage to critical issues, followed by a section on methods and tools, to chapters that provide geographic perspectives, and finally to a section that identifies potential policy options. The propositions comprise (1) Risk management can be an effective entry point for aligning perspectives and debates, if framed comprehensively, coupled with climate justice considerations and linked to established risk management and adaptation practice; (2) Attribution science is advancing rapidly and fundamental to informing actions to minimise, avert, and address losses and damages; (3) Climate change research, in addition to identifying physical/hard limits to adaptation, needs to more systematically examine soft limits to adaptation, for which we find some evidence across several geographies globally; (4) Climate risk insurance mechanisms can serve the prevention and cure aspects emphasised in the L&D debate but solidarity and accountability aspects need further attention, for which we find tentative indication in applications around the world; (5) Policy deliberations may need to overcome the perception that L&D constitutes a win-lose negotiation “game” by developing a more inclusive narrative that highlights collective ambition for tackling risks, mutual benefits and the role of transformation

Just Systems or Justice in Systems? Exploring the Ethical Implications of Systemic Resilience in Local Climate Adaptation

The concept of systemic resilience, as it is understood in the context of climate change adaptation addressing systemic risks and polycrisis, is an inherently normative notion that carries ethical weight. To account for these implications, systemic resilience needs to be supplemented with ethical reflections on a system’s function, why it should be made resilient, and who the resilience serves. Crucially, considerations surrounding various forms of justice, such as participatory, procedural, distributive, and historical, need to be accounted for when making decisions about a community’s resilience in the face of increasing climate hazards. Resilience in the context of systemic risks and climate adaptation currently does not account for its ethical implications. This investigation builds on complexity science research and specifically the expanded concept of systemic resilience. In this article, the concept of systemic resilience is applied to the local level, highlighting its ethical underpinnings in the process. Specifically, a case-study explores the application of the ethically informed version of systemic climate resilience, exploring how the Rhine-Erft catchment in Germany could be assessed on this basis

The Risk-Tandem Framework: an iterative framework for combining risk governance and knowledge co-production toward integrated disaster risk management and climate change adaptation.

The challenges of the Anthropocene are growing ever more complex and uncertain, underpinned by the emergence of systemic risks. At the same time, the landscape of risk governance has become compartmentalised and siloed, characterized by non-overlapping activities, competing scientific discourses, and distinct responsibilities distributed across diverse public and private bodies. Operating across scales and disciplines, actors tend to work in silos which constitute critical gaps within the interface of science, policy, and practice. Yet, increasingly complex and ‘wicked’ problems require holistic solutions, multi-scalar communication, coordination, collaboration, data interoperability, funding, and stakeholder engagement. To address these problems in a real-world context, we present the Risk-Tandem framework for bridging theory and practice; to guide and structure the integration of disaster risk management (DRM), climate change adaptation (CCA) and systemic risk management through a process of transdisciplinary knowledge co-production. Advancing the frontiers of knowledge in this regard, The Risk-Tandem framework combines risk management approaches and tools with iterative co-production processes as a cornerstone of its implementation, in efforts to promote the co-design of fit-for-purpose solutions, methods and approaches contributing toward strengthened risk governance alongside stakeholders. The paper outlines how the framework is developed, applied, and further refined within selected case study regions, including Denmark, Germany, Italy and the Danube Region