Nowcast model for low‐energy electrons in the inner magnetosphere

We present the nowcast model for low‐energy (<200 keV) electrons in the inner magnetosphere, which is the version of the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) for electrons. Low‐energy electron fluxes are very important to specify when hazardous satellite surface‐charging phenomena are considered. The presented model provides the low‐energy electron flux at all L shells and at all satellite orbits, when necessary. The model is driven by the real‐time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters with 1 h time shift for propagation to the Earth's magnetopause and by the real time Dst index. Real‐time geostationary GOES 13 or GOES 15 (whenever each is available) data on electron fluxes in three energies, such as 40 keV, 75 keV, and 150 keV, are used for comparison and validation of IMPTAM running online. On average, the model provides quite reasonable agreement with the data; the basic level of the observed fluxes is reproduced. The best agreement between the modeled and the observed fluxes are found for <100 keV electrons. At the same time, not all the peaks and dropouts in the observed electron fluxes are reproduced. For 150 keV electrons, the modeled fluxes are often smaller than the observed ones by an order of magnitude. The normalized root‐mean‐square deviation is found to range from 0.015 to 0.0324. Though these metrics are buoyed by large standard deviations, owing to the dynamic nature of the fluxes, they demonstrate that IMPTAM, on average, predicts the observed fluxes satisfactorily. The computed binary event tables for predicting high flux values within each 1 h window reveal reasonable hit rates being 0.660–0.318 for flux thresholds of 5 ·104–2 ·105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 keV−1 for 40 keV electrons, 0.739–0.367 for flux thresholds of 3 ·104–1 ·105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 keV−1 for 75 keV electrons, and 0.485–0.438 for flux thresholds of 3 ·103–3.5 ·103 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 keV−1 for 150 keV electrons but rather small Heidke Skill Scores (0.17 and below). This is the first attempt to model low‐energy electrons in real time at 10 min resolution. The output of this model can serve as an input of electron seed population for real‐time higher‐energy radiation belt modeling.Key PointsNowcast model for low‐energy electronsOnline near‐real‐time comparison to GOES MAGED dataFirst successful model for low‐energy electrons in real timePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110719/1/swe20196.pd

A Quantitative Analysis of the Available Multicolor Photometry for Rapidly Pulsating Hot B Subdwarfs

We present a quantitative and homogeneous analysis of the broadband multicolor photometric data sets gathered so far on rapidly pulsating hot B subdwarf stars. This concerns seven distinct data sets related to six different stars. Our analysis is carried out within the theoretical framework developed by Randall et al., which includes full nonadiabatic effects. The goal of this analysis is partial mode identification, i.e., the determination of the degree index l of each of the observed pulsation modes. We assume possible values of l from 0 to 5 in our calculations. For each target star, we compute a specific model atmosphere and a specific pulsation model using estimates of the atmospheric parameters coming from time-averaged optical spectroscopy. For every assumed value of l, we use a formal chi-squared approach to model the observed amplitude-wavelength distribution of each mode, and we compute a quality-of-fit Q probability to quantify the derived fit and to discriminate objectively between the various solutions. We find that no completely convincing and unambiguous l identification is possible on the basis of the available data, although partial mode discrimination has been reached for 25 out of the 41 modes studied. A brief statistical study of these results suggests that a majority of the modes must have l values of 0, 1, and 2, but also that modes with l = 4 could very well be present while modes with l = 3 appear to be rarer. This is in line with recent results showing that l = 4 modes in rapidly pulsating B subdwarfs have a higher visibility in the optical domain than modes with l = 3. Although somewhat disappointing in terms of mode discrimination, our results still suggest that the full potential of multicolor photometry for l identification in pulsating subdwarfs is within reach.Comment: 59 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie

SPB stars in the open SMC cluster NGC 371

Pulsation in beta Cep and SPB stars are driven by the kappa mechanism which depends critically on the metallicity. It has therefore been suggested that beta Cep and SPB stars should be rare in the Magellanic Clouds which have lower metallicities than the solar neighborhood. To test this prediction we have observed the open SMC cluster NGC 371 for 12 nights in order to search for beta Cep and SPB stars. Surprisingly, we find 29 short-period B-type variables in the upper part of the main sequence, many of which are probably SPB stars. This result indicates that pulsation is still driven by the kappa mechanism even in low metallicity environments. All the identified variables have periods longer than the fundamental radial period which means that they cannot be beta Cep stars. Within an amplitude detection limit of 5 mmag no stars in the top of the HR-diagram show variability with periods shorter than the fundamental radial period. So if beta Cep stars are present in the cluster they oscillate with amplitudes below 5 mmag, which is significantly lower than the mean amplitude of beta Cep stars in the Galaxy. We see evidence that multimode pulsation is more common in the upper part of the main sequence than in the lower. We have also identified 5 eclipsing binaries and 3 periodic pulsating Be stars in the cluster field.Comment: 8 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

A statistical study of the performance of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 numerical model in predicting solar shock arrival times at Earth during different phases of solar cycle 23

The performance of the Hakamada Akasofu-Fry, version 2 (HAFv.2) numerical model, which provides predictions of solar shock arrival times at Earth, was subjected to a statistical study to investigate those solar/interplanetary circumstances under which the model performed well/poorly during key phases (rise/maximum/decay) of solar cycle 23. In addition to analyzing elements of the overall data set (584 selected events) associated with particular cycle phases, subsets were formed such that those events making up a particular sub-set showed common characteristics. The statistical significance of the results obtained using the various sets/subsets was generally very low and these results were not significant as compared with the hit by chance rate (50%). This implies a low level of confidence in the predictions of the model with no compelling result encouraging its use. However, the data suggested that the success rates of HAFv.2 were higher when the background solar wind speed at the time of shock initiation was relatively fast. Thus, in scenarios where the background solar wind speed is elevated and the calculated success rate significantly exceeds the rate by chance, the forecasts could provide potential value to the customer. With the composite statistics available for solar cycle 23, the calculated success rate at high solar wind speed, although clearly above 50%, was indicative rather than conclusive. The RMS error estimated for shock arrival times for every cycle phase and for the composite sample was in each case significantly better than would be expected for a random data set. Also, the parameter "Probability of Detection, yes" (PODy) which presents the Proportion of Yes observations that were correctly forecast (i.e. the ratio between the shocks correctly predicted and all the shocks observed), yielded values for the rise/maximum/decay phases of the cycle and using the composite sample of 0.85, 0.64, 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. The statistical results obtained through detailed analysis of the available data provided insights into how changing circumstances on the Sun and in interplanetary space can affect the performance of the model. Since shock arrival predictions are widely utilized in making commercially significant decisions re. protecting space assets, the present detailed archival studies can be useful in future operational decision making during solar cycle 24. It would be of added value in this context to use Briggs-Rupert methodology to estimate the cost to an operator of acting on an incorrect forecast

Extreme internal charging currents in medium Earth orbit: Analysis of SURF plate currents on Giove-A

Relativistic electrons can penetrate spacecraft shielding and can damage satellite components. Spacecraft in medium Earth orbit pass through the heart of the outer radiation belt and may be exposed to large fluxes of relativistic electrons, particularly during extreme space weather events. In this study we perform an extreme value analysis of the daily average internal charging currents at three different shielding depths in medium Earth orbit as a function of L∗ and along the orbit path. We use data from the SURF instrument on board the European Space Agency's Giove-A spacecraft from December 2005 to January 2016. The top, middle, and bottom plates of this instrument respond to electrons with energies >500 keV, >700 keV, and >1.1 MeV, respectively. The 1 in 10 year daily average top plate current decreases with increasing L∗ ranging from 1.0 pA cm−2 at L∗=4.75 to 0.03 pA cm−2 at L∗=7.0. The 1 in 100 year daily average top plate current is a factor of 1.2 to 1.8 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year current. The 1 in 10 year daily average middle and bottom plate currents also decrease with increasing L∗ ranging from 0.4 pA cm−2 at L∗=4.75 to 0.01 pA cm−2 at L∗=7.0. The 1 in 100 year daily average middle and bottom plate currents are a factor of 1.2 to 2.7 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year currents. Averaged along the orbit path the 1 in 10 year daily average top, middle, and bottom plate currents are 0.22, 0.094, and 0.094 pA cm−2, respectively

Orbital parameters, masses and distance to Beta Centauri determined with the Sydney University Stellar Interferometer and high resolution spectroscopy

The bright southern binary star beta Centauri (HR 5267) has been observed with the Sydney University Stellar Interferometer (SUSI) and spectroscopically with the ESO CAT and Swiss Euler telescopes at La Silla. The interferometric observations have confirmed the binary nature of the primary component and have enabled the determination of the orbital parameters of the system. At the observing wavelength of 442 nm the two components of the binary system have a magnitude difference of 0.15. The combination of interferometric and spectroscopic data gives the following results: orbital period 357 days, semi-major axis 25.30 mas, inclination 67.4 degrees, eccentricity 0.821, distance 102.3 pc, primary and secondary masses M1 = M2 = 9.1 solar masses and absolute visual magnitudes of the primary and secondary M1V = -3.85 and M2V = -3.70. The high accuracy of the results offers a fruitful starting point for future asteroseismic modelling of the pulsating binary components.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Self-trapped electrons and holes in PbBr2_2 crystals

We have directly observed self-trapped electrons and holes in PbBr$_{2}$ crystals with electron-spin-resonance (ESR) technique. The self-trapped states are induced below 8 K by two-photon interband excitation with pulsed 120-fs-width laser light at 3.10 eV. Spin-Hamiltonian analyses of the ESR signals have revealed that the self-trapping electron centers are the dimer molecules of Pb$_2$$^{3+}$ along the crystallographic a axis and the self-trapping hole centers are those of Br$_2$$^-$ with two possible configurations in the unit cell of the crystal. Thermal stability of the self-trapped electrons and holes suggests that both of them are related to the blue-green luminescence band at 2.55 eV coming from recombination of spatially separated electron-hole pairs.Comment: 8 pages (7 figures, 2 tables), ReVTEX; revised the text and figures 1, 4, and

Boron Abundances in Main Sequence B-type Stars: A Test of Rotational Depletion during Main Sequence Evolution

Boron abundances have been derived for seven main sequence B-type stars from HST STIS spectra around the B III 2066 A line. In two stars, boron appears to be undepleted with respect to the presumed initial abundance. In one star, boron is detectable but it is clearly depleted. In the other four stars, boron is undetectable implying depletions of 1 to 2 dex. Three of these four stars are nitrogen enriched, but the fourth shows no enrichment of nitrogen. Only rotationally induced mixing predicts that boron depletions are unaccompanied by nitrogen enrichments. The inferred rate of boron depletion from our observations is in good agreement with these predictions. Other boron-depleted nitrogen-normal stars are identified from the literature. Also, several boron-depleted nitrogen-rich stars are identified, and while all fall on the boron-nitrogen trend predicted by rotationally-induced mixing, a majority have nitrogen enrichments that are not uniquely explained by rotation. The spectra have also been used to determine iron-group (Cr, Mn, Fe, and Ni) abundances. The seven B-type stars have near solar iron-group abundances, as expected for young stars in the solar neighborhood. We have also analysed the halo B-type star, PG0832+676. We find [Fe/H] = -0.88 +/- 0.10, and the absence of the B III line gives the upper limit [B/H]<2.5. These and other published abundances are used to infer the star's evolutionary status as a post-AGB star.Comment: 31 pages, 14 figures. accepted to Ap