Solar influences on dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved

The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower-stratospheric temperature

A multiple regression analysis of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a response to increased solar activity of a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets. This signal is separable from other influences, such as those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and is very similar to that seen in previous studies using global circulation models (GCMs) of the effects of an increase in solar spectral irradiance. The response to increased stratospheric (volcanic) aerosol is found in the data to be a weakening and equatorward shift of the jets. The GCM studies of the solar influence also showed an impact on tropospheric mean meridional circulation with a weakening and expansion of the tropical Hadley cells and a poleward shift of the Ferrel cells. To understand the mechanisms whereby the changes in solar irradiance affect tropospheric winds and circulation, experiments have been carried out with a simplified global circulation model. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the subtropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low-latitude heating forcing them to move poleward, and high-latitude or latitudinally uniform heating forcing them equatorward. The patterns of response are similar to those that are found to be a result of the solar or volcanic influences, respectively, in the data analysis. This demonstrates that perturbations to the heat balance of the lower stratosphere, such as those brought about by solar or volcanic activity, can produce changes in the mean tropospheric circulation, even without any direct forcing below the tropopause

Customer related facilities management processes: understanding the needs of the customer

In the past, organisations could concentrate on their internal capabilities, emphasising product performance and technology innovation. Organisations that did not understand their customers’ needs eventually found that competitors could make inroads by offering products or services better aligned to their customers’ preferences. Many Facilities Management organisations today have a mission focused on the customer, and how the organisation is performing its customers’ perspective has become a priority for the organisational management. How the FM organisation is performing through the eyes of its customers has therefore become a priority issue for facilities managers. This captures the ability of the organisation to provide quality goods and services, the effectiveness of their delivery, and overall customer service and satisfaction. It places importance on the organisation’s ability to achieve its vision, and how it wants to be seen by its customers. This paper will discuss some of the important FM customer related processes and mechanisms associated with its measurement identified through a series of case studies carried out as part of a major research stud

The plastic limit of clays

The plastic limit of soils was first described by Atterberg in 1911. The thread-rolling test was standardised at the US Public Roads Bureau in the 1920s and 1930s, and has subsequently become one of the standard tests of soil mechanics. This paper reviews the original definitions of plastic limit as proposed by Atterberg, and proposes that the brittle failure observed in the plastic limit test is caused by either air entry or cavitation in the clay. Critical state soil mechanics is used to show that the observed range of undrained shear strengths of soils at plastic limit is consistent with this hypothesis. The fallacy that strength at plastic limit is a constant is highlighted, and the implications for geotechnical practice are discussed. </jats:p

Solar Irradiance Variability and Climate

The brightness of the Sun varies on all time scales on which it has been observed, and there is increasing evidence that it has an influence on climate. The amplitudes of such variations depend on the wavelength and possibly on the time scale. Although many aspects of this variability are well established, the exact magnitude of secular variations (going beyond a solar cycle) and the spectral dependence of variations are under discussion. The main drivers of solar variability are thought to be magnetic features at the solar surface. The climate reponse can be, on a global scale, largely accounted for by simple energetic considerations, but understanding the regional climate effects is more difficult. Promising mechanisms for such a driving have been identified, including through the influence of UV irradiance on the stratosphere and dynamical coupling to the surface. Here we provide an overview of the current state of our knowledge, as well as of the main open questions

Futures planning, parental expectations and sibling concern for people who have a learning disability

The aim of this questionnaire was to explore the existence of future plans, parental expectation and sibling concern regarding people who have a learning disability. A questionnaire was sent via email to siblings of people who have a learning disability. 21 completed questionnaires were returned and responses were anaylsed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis. A full discussion regarding sibling support was reported to have taken place by 12 (57%) of respondents, 7 (33%) stated this discussion had not taken place and 2 (9%) were unsure. 12 (57%) of participants reported no clear future plan however where a plan did exist, 7 (33%) of respondents claimed it was fully agreeable to both them and their parents. 11 (52%) of respondents reported no difference between their wishes regarding their future role and parental wishes. Key themes generated were; satisfaction with services, parental influence, sibling concern about the future, futures planning, the impact of the disabled person upon sibling lives and siblings needs. Further qualitative exploration into the personal wishes, reality and parental expectations for future support of siblings of adults who have a learning disability is required. Keywords: adult siblings, futures planning, learning disability, parental expectatio

Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections

Global climate models are central tools for understanding past and future climate change. The assessment of model skill, in turn, can benefit from modern data science approaches. Here we apply causal discovery algorithms to sea level pressure data from a large set of climate model simulations and, as a proxy for observations, meteorological reanalyses. We demonstrate how the resulting causal networks (fingerprints) offer an objective pathway for process-oriented model evaluation. Models with fingerprints closer to observations better reproduce important precipitation patterns over highly populated areas such as the Indian subcontinent, Africa, East Asia, Europe and North America. We further identify expected model interdependencies due to shared development backgrounds. Finally, our network metrics provide stronger relationships for constraining precipitation projections under climate change as compared to traditional evaluation metrics for storm tracks or precipitation itself. Such emergent relationships highlight the potential of causal networks to constrain longstanding uncertainties in climate change projections. Algorithms to assess causal relationships in data sets have seen increasing applications in climate science in recent years. Here, the authors show that these techniques can help to systematically evaluate the performance of climate models and, as a result, to constrain uncertainties in future climate change projections