The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War in Cyberspace Back Down to Earth

Cyberwar has been described as a revolution in military affairs, a transformation of technology and doctrine capable of overturning the prevailing world order. This characterization of the threat from cyberwar, however, reflects a common tendency to conflate means and ends; studying what could happen in cyberspace (or anywhere else) makes little sense without considering how conflict over the internet is going to realize objectives commonly addressed by terrestrial warfare. To supplant established modes of conflict, cyberwar must be capable of furthering the political ends to which force or threats of force are commonly applied, something that in major respects cyberwar fails to do. As such, conflict over the internet is much more likely to serve as an adjunct to, rather than a substitute for, existing modes of terrestrial force. Indeed, rather than threatening existing political hierarchies, cyberwar is much more likely to simply augment the advantages of status quo powers. </jats:p

Environmental changes and violent conflict

This letter reviews the scientific literature on whether and how environmental changes affect the risk of violent conflict. The available evidence from qualitative case studies indicates that environmental stress can contribute to violent conflict in some specific cases. Results from quantitative large-N studies, however, strongly suggest that we should be careful in drawing general conclusions. Those large-N studies that we regard as the most sophisticated ones obtain results that are not robust to alternative model specifications and, thus, have been debated. This suggests that environmental changes may, under specific circumstances, increase the risk of violent conflict, but not necessarily in a systematic way and unconditionally. Hence there is, to date, no scientific consensus on the impact of environmental changes on violent conflict. This letter also highlights the most important challenges for further research on the subject. One of the key issues is that the effects of environmental changes on violent conflict are likely to be contingent on a set of economic and political conditions that determine adaptation capacity. In the authors' view, the most important indirect effects are likely to lead from environmental changes via economic performance and migration to violent conflict. © 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd

Extended deterrence dilemmas in the grey zone: transatlantic insights on Baltic security challenges

This is the final version. Available from De Gruyter via the DOI in this record.Should the U.S. respond with military means to a limited Russian incursion in the Baltics? This paper explores Western public and expert attitudes towards such a hypothetical grey zone crisis. Using survey experiments and crisis simulations we find considerable reluctance to use military tools and channels in order to support a Baltic ally, and surprisingly little variation across the audiences. We also find that the understanding of Baltic regional realities in the U.S. and Western Europe, although gradually increasing, remains limited. The underlying reluctance to get the U.S. involved in an armed conflict with Russia in the hopes that such acquiescence may help preserve global stability indicates that the conflict in Ukraine only had a fundamentally limited impact on Western strategic thought vis-à-vis deterring Russia. The study points to young Democrats as the most likely prospective supporters of armed defense of the Baltic region (as opposed to Republicans traditionally approached by Baltic lobbyists), suggesting a due shift in Transatlantic engagement

State Control and the Effects of Foreign Relations on Bilateral Trade

Do states use trade to reward and punish partners? WTO rules and the pressures of globalization restrict states’ capacity to manipulate trade policies, but we argue that governments can link political goals with economic outcomes using less direct avenues of influence over firm behavior. Where governments intervene in markets, politicization of trade is likely to occur. In this paper, we examine one important form of government control: state ownership of firms. Taking China and India as examples, we use bilateral trade data by firm ownership type, as well as measures of bilateral political relations based on diplomatic events and UN voting to estimate the effect of political relations on import and export flows. Our results support the hypothesis that imports controlled by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) exhibit stronger responsiveness to political relations than imports controlled by private enterprises. A more nuanced picture emerges for exports; while India’s exports through SOEs are more responsive to political tensions than its flows through private entities, the opposite is true for China. This research holds broader implications for how we should think about the relationship between political and economic relations going forward, especially as a number of countries with partially state-controlled economies gain strength in the global economy

Did aid promote democracy in Africa?: the role of technical assistance in Africa’s transitions

Did foreign aid impede or catalyze democratization in Africa in the 1990s? We argue that after the Cold War, donors increased their use of technical assistance in aid packages, improving their monitoring capacity and thus reducing autocrats’ ability to use aid for patronage. To remain in power, autocrats responded by conceding political rights to their opponents—from legalizing opposition parties to staging elections. We test our theory with panel data for all sub-Saharan African countries. While other factors played pivotal roles in Africa’s political liberalization, we find technical assistance helps to explain the timing and extent of Africa’s democratization

Inhibition of Ferroptosis Enables Safe Rewarming of HEK293 Cells following Cooling in University of Wisconsin Cold Storage Solution

The prolonged cooling of cells results in cell death, in which both apoptosis and ferroptosis have been implicated. Preservation solutions such as the University of Wisconsin Cold Storage Solution (UW) encompass approaches addressing both. The use of UW improves survival and thus extends preservation limits, yet it remains unclear how exactly organ preservation solutions exert their cold protection. Thus, we explored cooling effects on lipid peroxidation and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) levels and the actions of blockers of apoptosis and ferroptosis, and of compounds enhancing mitochondrial function. Cooling and rewarming experiments were performed in a cellular transplantation model using Human Embryonic Kidney (HEK) 293 cells. Cell viability was assessed by neutral red assay. Lipid peroxidation levels were measured by Western blot against 4-Hydroxy-Nonenal (4HNE) and the determination of Malondialdehyde (MDA). ATP was measured by luciferase assay. Cooling beyond 5 h in Dulbecco's Modified Eagle Medium (DMEM) induced complete cell death in HEK293, whereas cooling in UW preserved ~60% of the cells, with a gradual decline afterwards. Cooling-induced cell death was not precluded by inhibiting apoptosis. In contrast, the blocking of ferroptosis by Ferrostatin-1 or maintaining of mitochondrial function by the 6-chromanol SUL150 completely inhibited cell death both in DMEM- and UW-cooled cells. Cooling for 24 h in UW followed by rewarming for 15 min induced a ~50% increase in MDA, while concomitantly lowering ATP by &gt;90%. Treatment with SUL150 of cooled and rewarmed HEK293 effectively precluded the increase in MDA and preserved normal ATP in both DMEM- and UW-cooled cells. Likewise, treatment with Ferrostatin-1 blocked the MDA increase and preserved the ATP of rewarmed UW HEK293 cells. Cooling-induced HEK293 cell death from hypothermia and/or rewarming was caused by ferroptosis rather than apoptosis. UW slowed down ferroptosis during hypothermia, but lipid peroxidation and ATP depletion rapidly ensued upon rewarming, ultimately resulting in complete cell death. Treatment throughout UW cooling with small-molecule Ferrostatin-1 or the 6-chromanol SUL150 effectively prevented ferroptosis, maintained ATP, and limited lipid peroxidation in UW-cooled cells. Counteracting ferroptosis during cooling in UW-based preservation solutions may provide a simple method to improve graft survival following cold static cooling.</p

THE LIBERAL PEACE: CHALLENGES TO DEVELOPMENT, DEMOCRACY AND SOFT POWER

The term “liberal” peace refers to the absence of fatal conflict between democratic nations, which are also economically interdependent. This chapter sketches the ideal and economic versions of the liberal peace theory. Policies promoting globalization may engender social conflict risks, as they produce inequality. In developed countries, we are witnessing the rise of populism, and the rolling back of the liberal aspects of democracy in developing countries. The avoidance of these problems requires careful management such that growth is broad-based, and policies promoting greater openness are sufficiently cushioned to protect losers. It is also necessary to manage globalization, and limit its negative impact on domestic social contracts, particularly when it comes to inequality, worker rights, and fiscal austerity

The Rise of Market-Capitalism and the Roots of Anti-American Terrorism

We examine the role of market-capitalism in anti-American terrorism, differentiating between level- and rate-of-change-effects associated with market-capitalist development and their respective relationship with anti-U.S. violence. Using panel data for 149 countries between 1970 and 2007, we find that higher levels of capitalist development - consistent with the capitalist-peace literature - coincide with less anti-American terrorism, while the marketization process has inflammatory effects on anti-American terrorism. These findings are further corroborated by system-level time-series evidence. We argue that a higher level of market-capitalism is associated with less anti-American terrorism by creating economic interdependencies and a convergence of pro-peace values and institutions, while the destabilizing effects of the marketization process may stem from the violent opposition of various anti-market interest groups to economic, politico-institutional and cultural change initiated by a transition towards a market economy. These interest groups deliberately target the U.S. as the main proponent of modern capitalism, globalization and modernity, where anti-American terrorism serves the purpose of consolidating their respective societal position. Our findings that the U.S. may ultimately become a less likely target of transnational terrorism through the establishment of market economies, but should not disregard the disruptive political, economic and cultural effects of the marketization process in noncapitalist societies

Regime Type and Bilateral Treaty Formalization

How does domestic regime type affect bilateral cooperation, and one of its most visible manifestations, bilateral treaties? This article explains how domestic political regime affects bilateral cooperation and, contrary to the expectations of some scholars, why autocracies should be expected to be more likely than democracies to enter into bilateral treaties. If the preferences of a pair of states are not identical, the sets of agreements that each party would consent to (win-sets) need to overlap for a bilateral treaty to be acceptable. Because additional domestic constraints reduce the size of a country’s win-set, autocracies should have broader win-sets than democracies. Therefore, autocratic dyads should be more likely to formalize bilateral treaties than other pairs of states. Based on an original data set, I present empirical evidence showing that pairs of autocracies are more likely than other pairs of states to enter into agreements formalizing bilateral cooperation