A Comparison of Methods for Poverty Estimation in Developing Countries

Small area estimation is a widely used indirect estimation technique for micro-level geographic profiling. Three unit level small area estimation techniques-the ELL or World Bank method, empirical best prediction (EBP) and M-quantile (MQ) - can estimate micro-level Foster, Greer, & Thorbecke (FGT) indicators: poverty incidence, gap and severity using both unit level survey and census data. However, they use different assumptions. The effects of using model-based unit level census data reconstructed from cross-tabulations and having no cluster level contextual variables for models are discussed, as are effects of small area and cluster level heterogeneity. A simulation-based comparison of ELL, EBP and MQ uses a model-based reconstruction of 2000/2001 data from Bangladesh and compares bias and mean square error. A three-level ELL method is applied for comparison with the standard two-level ELL that lacks a small area level component. An important finding is that the larger number of small areas for which ELL has been able to produce sufficiently accurate estimates in comparison with EBP and MQ has been driven more by the type of census data available or utilised than by the model per se

Rational reprogramming of the sesquiterpene synthase BcBOT2 yields new terpenes with presilphiperfolane skeleton

Computer-aided rational design of the substrate binding pocket of sesquiterpene synthases BcBOT2 from Botrytis cinerea yielded FPP cyclization products with presilphiperfolane backbone other than the naturally formed sesquiterpene presilphiperfolan-8β-ol. Particularly, amino acids W118 and F138 were found to strongly control the stability and conformation of key cationic intermediates. The W118Q variant forms only presilphiperfolan-9β-ol, whereas the exchange of amino acids at position 138, such as F138V, has a fundamental effect on the course of the cationic cascade. Here, the 1,3-hydride shift en route to presilphiperfolan-8β-ol is suppressed and substituted by a so far unknown 1,2-hydride shift that leads to presilphiperfol-1-ene and presilphiperfolan-1α-ol along with β-caryophyllene and the so far unknown caryophyllene-8β-ol

Financial Evaluation of Different Vaccination Strategies for Controlling the Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 Epidemic in the Netherlands in 2008

Background: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008 Methodology/Principal Findings: An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in the Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of the Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs. Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficienc

Geo-additive models of Childhood Undernutrition in three Sub-Saharan African Countries

We investigate the geographical and socioeconomic determinants of childhood undernutrition in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, three neighboring countries in Southern Africa using the 1992 Demographic and Health Surveys. We estimate models of undernutrition jointly for the three countries to explore regional patterns of undernutrition that transcend boundaries, while allowing for country-specific interactions. We use semiparametric models to flexibly model the effects of selected so-cioeconomic covariates and spatial effects. Our spatial analysis is based on a flexible geo-additive model using the district as the geographic unit of anal-ysis, which allows to separate smooth structured spatial effects from random effect. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses recent Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. While the socioeconomic determinants generally confirm what is known in the literature, we find distinct residual spatial patterns that are not explained by the socioeconomic determinants. In particular, there appears to be a belt run-ning from Southern Tanzania to Northeastern Zambia which exhibits much worse undernutrition, even after controlling for socioeconomic effects. These effects do transcend borders between the countries, but to a varying degree. These findings have important implications for targeting policy as well as the search for left-out variables that might account for these residual spatial patterns

Evaluation of the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) applied to ASTER imagery with flux-measurements at the SPARC 2004 site (Barrax, Spain)

Accurate quantification of the amount and spatial variation of evapotranspiration is important in a wide range of disciplines. Remote sensing based surface energy balance models have been developed to estimate turbulent surface energy fluxes at different scales. The objective of this study is to evaluate the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model on a landscape scale, using tower-based flux measurements at different land cover units during an overpass of the ASTER sensor over the SPARC 2004 experimental site in Barrax (Spain). A sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to investigate to which variable the sensible heat flux is most sensitive. Taking into account their estimation errors, the aerodynamic parameters (hc, z0M and d0) can cause large deviations in the modelling of sensible heat flux. The effect of replacement of empirical derivation of these aerodynamic parameters in the model by field estimates or literature values is investigated by testing two scenarios: the Empirical Scenario in which empirical equations are used to derive aerodynamic parameters and the Field Scenario in which values from field measurements or literature are used to replace the empirical calculations of the Empirical Scenario. In the case of a homogeneous land cover in the footprints of the measurements, the Field Scenario only resulted in a small improvement, compared to the Empirical Scenario. The Field Scenario can even worsen the result in the case of heterogeneous footprints, by creating sharp borders related to the land cover map. In both scenarios modelled fluxes correspond better with flux measurements over uniform land cover compared to cases where different land covers are mixed in the measurement footprint. Furthermore SEBS underestimates sensible heat flux especially over dry and sparsely vegetated areas, which is common in single-source models

Genome-wide diversity and global migration patterns in dromedaries follow ancient caravan routes

Dromedaries have been essential for the prosperity of civilizations in arid environments and the dispersal of humans, goods and cultures along ancient, cross-continental trading routes. With increasing desertification their importance as livestock species is rising rapidly, but little is known about their genome-wide diversity and demographic history. As previous studies using few nuclear markers found weak phylogeographic structure, here we detected fine-scale population differentiation in dromedaries across Asia and Africa by adopting a genome-wide approach. Global patterns of effective migration rates revealed pathways of dispersal after domestication, following historic caravan routes like the Silk and Incense Roads. Our results show that a Pleistocene bottleneck and Medieval expansions during the rise of the Ottoman empire have shaped genome-wide diversity in modern dromedaries. By understanding subtle population structure we recognize the value of small, locally adapted populations and appeal for securing genomic diversity for a sustainable utilization of this key desert species

Trans-eQTLs Reveal That Independent Genetic Variants Associated with a Complex Phenotype Converge on Intermediate Genes, with a Major Role for the HLA

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