Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: A New View of the Cost Channel

Should the central bank act to prevent "excessive" asset price dynamics or should it wait until the boom spontaneously turns into a crash and intervene afterwards to attenuate the fallout on the real economy? The standard "three equation" New Keynesian framework is inadequate to analyse this issue for the very simple reason that asset prices are not explicitly included in the model. There are two straightforward ways to take into account asset price dynamics in this framework. First of all, the objective function of the central bank - usually defined in terms of inflation and the output gap - could be "augmented" to take into account asset price inflation. Second, expected asset price inflation can affect the IS curve through a wealth effect. In this paper we follow a different route. In our model in fact, the expected asset price dynamics will be eventually incorporated into the NK Phillips curve. This is due to the assumption of a cost channel for monetary policy which is activated whenever monetary policy affects asset prices and dividends. In fact they determine the cost of external finance in the simple "equity only" financing model we consider, abstracting for simplicity from internal funds and the credit market.

Heterogeneity and Aggregation in a Financial Accelerator Model

In this paper we present a macroeconomic model in which changes in the variance (and higher moments of the distribution) of firm's financial conditions - i.e. "distributive shocks" - are bound to play a crucial role in the determination of output fluctuations. Firms differ by degree of financial robustness, which affects (optimal) investment in a bankruptcy risk context (à la Greenwald-Stiglitz). As to households, for the sake of simplicity, we assume that they are homogeneous in every respect so that we can adopt the representative agent hypothesis. We can explore the properties of the macro-dynamic model either via the study of the two-dimensional map defining the laws of motion of the average equity ratio and of the variance of the distribution or via simulations in a multiagent framework.

"Credit Cycle" in an OLG Economy with Money and Bequest

In the late '90s Kiyotaki and Moore (KM) put forward a new framework (Kiyotaki and Moore,1997) to explore the Financial Accelerator hypothesis. The original model was framed in an Infinitely Lived Agent context (ILA-KM economy). As in KM we develop a dynamic model in which the durable asset ("land") is not only an input but also collateralizable wealth to secure lenders from the risk of borrowers' default. In this paper, however, we model an OLG-KM economy whose novel feature is the role of money as a store of value and of bequest as a vehicle of resources to be "invested" in landholding. The dynamics generated by the model are complex. Not only cyclical patterns are routinely generated but the periodicity and amplitude are irregular. A route to chaotic dynamics is open.

Reflections on Modern Macroeconomics: Can We Travel Along a Safer Road?

In this paper we sketch some reflections on the pitfalls and inconsistencies of the research program - currently dominant among the profession - aimed at providing microfoundations to macroeconomics along a Walrasian perspective. We argue that such a methodological approach constitutes an unsatisfactory answer to a well-posed research question, and that alternative promising routes have been long mapped out but only recently explored. In particular, we discuss a recent agent-based, truly non-Walrasian macroeconomic model, and we use it to envisage new challenges for future research.Comment: Latex2e v1.6; 17 pages with 4 figures; for inclusion in the APFA5 Proceeding

Self-organized model of cascade spreading

We study simultaneous price drops of real stocks and show that for high drop thresholds they follow a power-law distribution. To reproduce these collective downturns, we propose a minimal self-organized model of cascade spreading based on a probabilistic response of the system elements to stress conditions. This model is solvable using the theory of branching processes and the mean-field approximation. For a wide range of parameters, the system is in a critical state and displays a power-law cascade-size distribution similar to the empirically observed one. We further generalize the model to reproduce volatility clustering and other observed properties of real stocks.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Implications of Behavioral Rules in Agent-Based Macroeconomics. CESifo Working Paper No. 11411

In this paper we examine the role of the design of behavioral rules in agent-based macroeconomic modeling. Based on clear theoretical foundations, we develop a general representation of the behavioral rules governing price and quantity decisions of firms and show how rules used in four main families of agent-based macroeconomic models can be interpreted as special cases of these general rules. We embed the four variations of these rules into a calibrated agent-based macroeconomic framework and show that they all yield qualitatively very similar dynamics in business-as-usual times. However, the impact of demand, cost, and productivity shocks differ substantially depending on which of the four variants of the price and quantity rules are used

The Eurace@Unibi Model: An Agent-Based Macroeconomic Model for Economic Policy Analysis

Dawid H, Gemkow S, Harting P, van der Hoog S, Neugart M. The Eurace@Unibi Model: An Agent-Based Macroeconomic Model for Economic Policy Analysis. Working Papers in Economics and Management. Vol 05-2012. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics; 2012.This document provides a description of the modeling assumptions and economic features of the Eurace@Unibi model. Furthermore, the document shows typical patterns of the output generated by this model and compares it to empirically observable stylized facts. The Eurace@Unibi model provides a representation of a closed macroeconomic model with spatial structure. The main objective is to provide a micro-founded macroeconomic model that can be used as a unified framework for policy analysis in different economic policy areas and for the examination of generic macroeconomic research questions. In spite of this general agenda the model has been constructed with certain specific research questions in mind and therefore certain parts of the model, e.g. the mechanisms driving technological change, have been worked out in more detail than others. The purpose of this document is to give an overview over the model itself and its features rather than discussing how insights into particular economic issues can be obtained using the Eurace@Unibi model. The model has been designed as a framework for economic analysis in various domains of economics. A number of economic issues have been examined using (prior versions of) the model (see Dawid et al. (2008), Dawid et al. (2009), Dawid et al. (2011a), Dawid and Harting (2011), van der Hoog and Deissenberg (2011), Cincotti et al. (2010)) and recent extensions of the model have substantially extended its applicability in various economic policy domains, however results of such policy analyses will be reported elsewhere. Whereas the overall modeling approach, the different modeling choices and the economic rationale behind these choices is discussed in some detail in this document, no detailed description of the implementation is given. Such a detailed documentation is provided in the accompanying document Dawid et al. (2011b)

Consumption & class in evolutionary macroeconomics

This article contributes to the field of evolutionary macroeconomics by highlighting the dynamic interlinkages between micro-meso-macro with a Veblenian meso foundation in an agent-based macroeconomic model. Consumption is dependent on endogenously changing social class and signaling, such as bandwagon, Veblen and snob effects. In particular, we test the macroeconomic effects of this meso foundation in a generic agent-based model of a closed artificial economy. The model is stock-flow consistent and builds upon local decision heuristics of heterogeneous agents characterized by bounded rationality and satisficing behavior. These agents include a multitude of households (workers and capitalists), firms, banks as well as a capital goods firm, a government and a central bank. Simulation experiments indicate coevolutionary dynamics between signaling-by-consuming and firm specialization that eventually effect employment and consumer prices, as well as other macroeconomic aggregates