Modeling pedestrian evacuation movement in a swaying ship

With the advance in living standard, cruise travel has been rapidly expanding around the world in recent years. The transportation of passengers in water has also made a rapid development. It is expected that ships will be more and more widely used. Unfortunately, ship disasters occurred in these years caused serious losses. It raised the concern on effectiveness of passenger evacuation on ships. The present study thus focuses on pedestrian evacuation features on ships. On ships, passenger movements are affected by the periodical water motion and thus are quite different from the characteristic when walking on static horizontal floor. Taking into consideration of this special feature, an agent-based pedestrian model is formulized and the effect of ship swaying on pedestrian evacuation efficiency is investigated. Results indicated that the proposed model can be used to quantify the special evacuation process on ships.Comment: Traffic and Granular Flow'15, At Delft, the Netherland

Altered expression of genes controlling metabolism characterizes the tissue response to immune injury in lupus.

To compare lupus pathogenesis in disparate tissues, we analyzed gene expression profiles of human discoid lupus erythematosus (DLE) and lupus nephritis (LN). We found common increases in myeloid cell-defining gene sets and decreases in genes controlling glucose and lipid metabolism in lupus-affected skin and kidney. Regression models in DLE indicated increased glycolysis was correlated with keratinocyte, endothelial, and inflammatory cell transcripts, and decreased tricarboxylic (TCA) cycle genes were correlated with the keratinocyte signature. In LN, regression models demonstrated decreased glycolysis and TCA cycle genes were correlated with increased endothelial or decreased kidney cell transcripts, respectively. Less severe glomerular LN exhibited similar alterations in metabolism and tissue cell transcripts before monocyte/myeloid cell infiltration in some patients. Additionally, changes to mitochondrial and peroxisomal transcripts were associated with specific cells rather than global signal changes. Examination of murine LN gene expression demonstrated metabolic changes were not driven by acute exposure to type I interferon and could be restored after immunosuppression. Finally, expression of HAVCR1, a tubule damage marker, was negatively correlated with the TCA cycle signature in LN models. These results indicate that altered metabolic dysfunction is a common, reversible change in lupus-affected tissues and appears to reflect damage downstream of immunologic processes

Traffic Instabilities in Self-Organized Pedestrian Crowds

In human crowds as well as in many animal societies, local interactions among individuals often give rise to self-organized collective organizations that offer functional benefits to the group. For instance, flows of pedestrians moving in opposite directions spontaneously segregate into lanes of uniform walking directions. This phenomenon is often referred to as a smart collective pattern, as it increases the traffic efficiency with no need of external control. However, the functional benefits of this emergent organization have never been experimentally measured, and the underlying behavioral mechanisms are poorly understood. In this work, we have studied this phenomenon under controlled laboratory conditions. We found that the traffic segregation exhibits structural instabilities characterized by the alternation of organized and disorganized states, where the lifetime of well-organized clusters of pedestrians follow a stretched exponential relaxation process. Further analysis show that the inter-pedestrian variability of comfortable walking speeds is a key variable at the origin of the observed traffic perturbations. We show that the collective benefit of the emerging pattern is maximized when all pedestrians walk at the average speed of the group. In practice, however, local interactions between slow- and fast-walking pedestrians trigger global breakdowns of organization, which reduce the collective and the individual payoff provided by the traffic segregation. This work is a step ahead toward the understanding of traffic self-organization in crowds, which turns out to be modulated by complex behavioral mechanisms that do not always maximize the group's benefits. The quantitative understanding of crowd behaviors opens the way for designing bottom-up management strategies bound to promote the emergence of efficient collective behaviors in crowds.Comment: Article published in PLoS Computational biology. Freely available here: http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.100244

Using Inferential Sensors for Quality Control of the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN)

2012 S.C. Water Resources Conference - Exploring Opportunities for Collaborative Water Research, Policy and Managemen

Perception of Nuclear Energy and Coal in France and the Netherlands

This study focuses on the perception of large scale application of nuclear energy and coal in the Netherlands and France. The application of these energy-sources and the risks and benefits are judged differently by various group in society. In Europe, France has the highest density of nuclear power plants and the Netherlands has one of the lowest. In both countries scientists and social scientists completed a questionnaire assessing the perception of the large scale application of both energy sources. Furthermore, a number of variables relating to the socio cultural and political circumstances were measured. The results indicate that the French had a higher risk perception and a more negative attitude toward nuclear power than the Dutch. But they also assess the benefits of the use of nuclear power to be higher. Explanations for these differences are discussed

Parsimony versus reductionism: how can crowd psychology be introduced into computer simulation?

Computer simulations are increasingly being used to predict the behaviour of crowds. However, the models used are mainly based on video observations, not an understanding of human decision making. Theories of crowd psychology can elucidate the factors underpinning collective behaviour in human crowds. Yet, in contrast to psychology, computer science must rely upon mathematical formulations in order to implement algorithms and keep models manageable. Here we address the problems and possible solutions encountered when incorporating social psychological theories of collective behaviour in computer modelling. We identify that one primary issue is retaining parsimony in a model whilst avoiding reductionism by excluding necessary aspects of crowd psychology, such as the behaviour of groups. We propose cognitive heuristics as a potential avenue to create a parsimonious model that incorporates core concepts of collective behaviour derived from empirical research in crowd psychology

Developing standard pedestrian-equivalent factors: passenger car–equivalent approach for dealing with pedestrian diversity

Similar to vehicular traffic, pedestrians, despite having diverse capabilities and body sizes, can be classified as heterogeneous. The use of vehicular traffic resolves the diversity issue with a conversion of heterogeneous vehicle flow into an equivalent flow with the use of passenger car–equivalent (PCE) factors. Analysis of pedestrian flow has yet to incorporate pedestrian diversity analysis implicitly into the design of pedestrian facilities, although some form of adjustment has been suggested. This paper introduces the concept of PCE-type factors for mixed pedestrian traffic called standard pedestrian-equivalent (SPE) factors. Estimates of SPE factors are made relative to the average commuter. The equivalent total travel time approach for PCE estimation was adapted to consider the effects of the differences in physical and operational characteristics of pedestrians, particularly walking speed and body size. Microsimulation of pedestrians was employed to evaluate hypothetical pedestrian proportions so as to generate corresponding flow relationships. Walking speeds and body sizes were varied across different flow conditions, walkway widths, and proportions of other pedestrian types. The first part of this paper explores how the two pedestrian characteristics (walking speed and body size) influence estimated SPE factors. The second part is a case study in which field-collected data illustrate SPE factors calculated for older adults, obese pedestrians, and their combination. An application of SPE factors demonstrates the robustness of the methodology in bridging the gap between pedestrian compositions and planning practice

The walking behaviour of pedestrian social groups and its impact on crowd dynamics

Human crowd motion is mainly driven by self-organized processes based on local interactions among pedestrians. While most studies of crowd behavior consider only interactions among isolated individuals, it turns out that up to 70% of people in a crowd are actually moving in groups, such as friends, couples, or families walking together. These groups constitute medium-scale aggregated structures and their impact on crowd dynamics is still largely unknown. In this work, we analyze the motion of approximately 1500 pedestrian groups under natural condition, and show that social interactions among group members generate typical group walking patterns that influence crowd dynamics. At low density, group members tend to walk side by side, forming a line perpendicular to the walking direction. As the density increases, however, the linear walking formation is bent forward, turning it into a V-like pattern. These spatial patterns can be well described by a model based on social communication between group members. We show that the V-like walking pattern facilitates social interactions within the group, but reduces the flow because of its "non-aerodynamic" shape. Therefore, when crowd density increases, the group organization results from a trade-off between walking faster and facilitating social exchange. These insights demonstrate that crowd dynamics is not only determined by physical constraints induced by other pedestrians and the environment, but also significantly by communicative, social interactions among individuals.Comment: 18 pages; 6 figures; Accepted for publication in PLoS ON

Magnetic Resonance Guided Radiation Therapy for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma, Advantages, Challenges, Current Approaches, and Future Directions

Introduction: Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) has some of the worst treatment outcomes for any solid tumor. PAC creates substantial difficulty for effective treatment with traditional RT delivery strategies primarily secondary to its location and limited visualization using CT. Several of these challenges are uniquely addressed with MR-guided RT. We sought to summarize and place into context the currently available literature on MR-guided RT specifically for PAC. Methods: A literature search was conducted to identify manuscript publications since September 2014 that specifically used MR-guided RT for the treatment of PAC. Clinical outcomes of these series are summarized, discussed, and placed into the context of the existing pancreatic literature. Multiple international experts were involved to optimally contextualize these publications. Results: Over 300 manuscripts were reviewed. A total of 6 clinical outcomes publications were identified that have treated patients with PAC using MR guidance. Successes, challenges, and future directions for this technology are evident in these publications. MR-guided RT holds theoretical promise for the treatment of patients with PAC. As with any new technology, immediate or dramatic clinical improvements associated with its use will take time and experience. There remain no prospective trials, currently publications are limited to small retrospective experiences. The current level of evidence for MR guidance in PAC is low and requires significant expansion. Future directions and ongoing studies that are currently open and accruing are identified and reviewed. Conclusions: The potential promise of MR-guided RT for PAC is highlighted, the challenges associated with this novel therapeutic intervention are also reviewed. Outcomes are very early, and will require continued and long term follow up. MR-guided RT should not be viewed in the same fashion as a novel chemotherapeutic agent for which dosing, administration, and toxicity has been established in earlier phase studies. Instead, it should be viewed as a novel procedural intervention which must be robustly tested, refined and practiced before definitive conclusions on the potential benefits or detriments can be determined. The future of MR-guided RT for PAC is highly promising and the potential implications on PAC are substantial

Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resource management in the Rhine basin”,

Abstract. The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin (CHR) has carried out a research project to assess the impact of climate change on the river flow conditions in the Rhine basin. Along a bottom-up line, different detailed hydrological models with hourly and daily time steps have been developed for representative sub-catchments of the Rhine basin. Along a topdown line, a water balance model for the entire Rhine basin has been developed, which calculates monthly discharges and which was tested on the scale of the major tributaries of the Rhine. Using this set of models, the effects of climate change on the discharge regime in different parts of the Rhine basin were calculated using the results of UKHI and XCCC GCM-experiments. All models indicate the same trends in the changes: higher winter discharge as a result of intensified snow-melt and increased winter precipitation, and lower summer discharge due to the reduced winter snow storage and an increase of evapotranspiration. When the results are considered in more detail, however, several differences show up. These can firstly be attributed to different physical characteristics of the studied areas, but different spatial and temporal scales used in the modelling and different representations of several hydrological processes (e.g., evapotranspiration, snow melt) are responsible for the differences found as well. Climate change can affect various socio-economic sectors. Higher temperatures may threaten winter tourism in the lower winter sport areas. The hydrological changes will increase flood risk during winter, whilst low flows during summer will adversely affect inland navigation, and reduce water availability for agriculture and industry. Balancing the required actions against economic cost and the existing uncertainties in the climate change scenarios, a policy of 'noregret and flexibility' in water management planning and design is recommended, where anticipatory adaptive measures in response to climate change impacts are undertaken in combination with ongoing activities. Present address