Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon.

Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the effects of large-scale experiments or conservation interventions. However, ad hoc retrospective study designs or the presence of random effects at multiple scales may preclude the use of these tools. We evaluated the effects of a large-scale supplementation program on the density of adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Snake River basin in the northwestern United States currently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We analyzed 43 years of data from 22 populations, accounting for random effects across time and space using a form of Bayesian hierarchical time-series model common in analyses of financial markets. We found that varying degrees of supplementation over a period of 25 years increased the density of natural-origin adults, on average, by 0-8% relative to nonsupplementation years. Thirty-nine of the 43 year effects were at least two times larger in magnitude than the mean supplementation effect, suggesting common environmental variables play a more important role in driving interannual variability in adult density. Additional residual variation in density varied considerably across the region, but there was no systematic difference between supplemented and reference populations. Our results demonstrate the power of hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the diffuse effects of management interventions and to quantitatively describe the variability of intervention success. Nevertheless, our study could not address whether ecological factors (e.g., competition) were more important than genetic considerations (e.g., inbreeding depression) in determining the response to supplementation

The impact of security bollards on evacuation flow

Individual bollard and bollard arrays (BA) have become a common design of Vehicle Security Barriers surrounding crowded spaces, in particular busy rail and underground stations, airports and many key commercial and public buildings. While guidance on the general installation of BA is available this earlier advice did not take into consideration the potential impact a BA may have on pedestrian flow during emergency evacuation. To address this issue, FSEG in collaboration with the CPNI and DfT investigated the potential impact that security bollards may have on evacuation flows through a series of full-scale experiments. In total 50 trials were conducted over three days on two weekends in March 2013. The experiment for each unique trial set up was repeated three times in order to ensure that the collected data was repeatable and representative of the trial conditions. The trials took place in the Queen Anne Courtyard of the University of Greenwich. Some 630 participants were recruited to take part in the trials, of which 458 actually participated. The trials were designed to capture the conditions produced as the population left a simulated station exit: at the point of exit (Exit flow trials) and when this population is incident upon the BA (BA flow trials). These trials were designed to control a number of key parameters in order to explore two specific questions: How does BA stand-off distance impact exit flow? And how does the BA impact flow passing through the BA? A key finding from these trials is that if the BA stand-off distance is greater than 3m there is not expected to be any adverse impact on exit flow due to the presence of the BA. However, it is essential that the BA is sufficiently wide so that it does not restrict the natural diffusion of the crowd as it exits

Neutron Stars in f(R) Gravity with Perturbative Constraints

We study the structure of neutron stars in f(R) gravity theories with perturbative constraints. We derive the modified Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkov equations and solve them for a polytropic equation of state. We investigate the resulting modifications to the masses and radii of neutron stars and show that observations of surface phenomena alone cannot break the degeneracy between altering the theory of gravity versus choosing a different equation of state of neutron-star matter. On the other hand, observations of neutron-star cooling, which depends on the density of matter at the stellar interior, can place significant constraints on the parameters of the theory.Comment: Discussion extended, typos corrected, figures revised. Accepted for publication in PR

Active dynamic signage system: A full-scale evacuation trial

Efficient evacuation from transport terminals in an emergency can be constrained by the complex nature of the buildings. Although emergency signage systems are widely used as a well established means of facilitating evacuation, recent research demonstrates that only 38% of people 'see' conventional static emergency signage in simulated emergency situations. Besides, conventional signage only conveys single and passive information; therefore, they cannot be adapted to respond to developing evacuation situations. The EU FP7 GETWAY project addresses this problem for transport terminals through the development of an Intelligent Active Dynamic Signage System (IADSS), which routes terminal passengers to their optimal exit according to the distribution of occupants and the nature of the evolving incident. This paper presents the results of two full scale evacuation trials conducted in a rail station to establish the specific benefits of the Active Dynamic Signage System (i.e. ADSS, a subsystem of the IADSS without the intelligent component) over the current standard emergency signage system. These trials demonstrate that the flashing lights of the ADSS do have a greater effect on route choice compared to the standard signage system and therefore are more likely to promote the adoption of emergency evacuation procedures than would otherwise be the case, especially where evacuees are required to adopt routes not entirely based on proximity

Trends in the availability and usage of electrophysical agents in physiotherapy practices from 1990 to 2010: A review

This is the Pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2012 Maney PublishingBackground: The use of electrophysical agents has a historically important role in physiotherapy practice. There are anecdotal reports that the availability and usage of electrotherapy modalities are declining, which may have implications for physiotherapy practice. The aim of this literature review was to provide scientific evidence on electrotherapy usage in the last 20 years by identifying trends in availability, use, and non-use of nine electrotherapeutic modalities in physiotherapy practices during 1990s and 2000s. Methods: Review of empirical studies published in the English language from 1990 to 2010 and identified through searching online bibliographic databases, which included: Medline/OvidSP, PubMed Central, CINAHL/EBSCOhost, ScienceDirect, Scopus, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Findings: In the last 20 years, ultrasound availability and usage show increasing trends in several countries. The availability and use of pulsed shortwave diathermy and laser have shown steady trends. Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation, interferential, and biofeedback availability and usage have shown increasing trends in the UK and decreasing trends in Australia and the Republic of Ireland. Trends of continuous shortwave diathermy availability and use are declining irrespective of the country of the study. The availability and usage of microwave diathermy and H-wave show steeply declining trends, while there is a sharp rise in their non-availability over the last several years. Conclusions: The availability and use of electrophysical agents have greatly changed in the last 20 years. Declining trends in the availability and usage along with increasing trend of non-availability of electrotherapy modalities may have implications for electrotherapy education, training, and practice in the coming years.This study was funded by Health & Safety Executive, UK (grant no. 4371/R47.022)

Development of a new laser Doppler velocimeter for the Ames High Reynolds Channel No. 2

A new two-channel laser Doppler velocimeter developed for the Ames High Reynolds Channel No. 2 is described. Design features required for the satisfactory operation of the optical system in the channel environment are discussed. Fiber optics are used to transmit the megahertz Doppler signal to the photodetectors located outside the channel pressure vessel, and provision is made to isolate the optical system from pressure and thermal strain effects. Computer-controlled scanning mirrors are used to position the laser beams in the channel flow. Techniques used to seed the flow with 0.5-micron-diam polystyrene spheres avoiding deposition on the test-section windows and porous boundary-layer removal panels are described. Preliminary results are presented with a discussion of several of the factors affecting accuracy

Origin Gaps and the Eternal Sunshine of the Second-Order Pendulum

The rich experiences of an intentional, goal-oriented life emerge, in an unpredictable fashion, from the basic laws of physics. Here I argue that this unpredictability is no mirage: there are true gaps between life and non-life, mind and mindlessness, and even between functional societies and groups of Hobbesian individuals. These gaps, I suggest, emerge from the mathematics of self-reference, and the logical barriers to prediction that self-referring systems present. Still, a mathematical truth does not imply a physical one: the universe need not have made self-reference possible. It did, and the question then is how. In the second half of this essay, I show how a basic move in physics, known as renormalization, transforms the "forgetful" second-order equations of fundamental physics into a rich, self-referential world that makes possible the major transitions we care so much about. While the universe runs in assembly code, the coarse-grained version runs in LISP, and it is from that the world of aim and intention grows.Comment: FQXI Prize Essay 2017. 18 pages, including afterword on Ostrogradsky's Theorem and an exchange with John Bova, Dresden Craig, and Paul Livingsto

Two approaches to testing general relativity in the strong-field regime

Observations of compact objects in the electromagnetic spectrum and the detection of gravitational waves from them can lead to quantitative tests of the theory of general relativity in the strong-field regime following two very different approaches. In the first approach, the general relativistic field equations are modified at a fundamental level and the magnitudes of the potential deviations are constrained by comparison with observations. In the second approach, the exterior spacetimes of compact objects are parametrized in a phenomenological way, the various parameters are measured observationally, and the results are finally compared against the general relativistic predictions. In this article, I discuss the current status of both approaches, focusing on the lessons learned from a large number of recent investigations.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of the conference New Developments in Gravit

Activation of AMPK by bitter melon triterpenoids involves CaMKKβ

We recently showed that bitter melon-derived triterpenoids (BMTs) activate AMPK and increase GLUT4 translocation to the plasma membrane in vitro, and improve glucose disposal in insulin resistant models in vivo. Here we interrogated the mechanism by which these novel compounds activate AMPK, a leading anti-diabetic drug target. BMTs did not activate AMPK directly in an allosteric manner as AMP or the Abbott compound (A-769662) does, nor did they activate AMPK by inhibiting cellular respiration like many commonly used anti-diabetic medications. BMTs increased AMPK activity in both L6 myotubes and LKB1-deficient HeLa cells by 20-35%. Incubation with the CaMKKß inhibitor, STO-609, completely attenuated this effect suggesting a key role for CaMKKß in this activation. Incubation of L6 myotubes with the calcium chelator EGTA-AM did not alter this activation suggesting that the BMT-dependent activation was Ca2+-independent. We therefore propose that CaMKKß is a key upstream kinase for BMT-induced activation of AMPK