Quantifying the checks and balances of collaborative governance systems for adaptive carnivore management

Recovering or threatened carnivore populations are often harvested to minimise their impact on human activities, such as livestock farming or game hunting. Increasingly, harvest quota decisions involve a set of scientific, administrative and political institutions operating at national and sub-national levels whose interactions and collective decision-making aim to increase the legitimacy of management and ensure population targets are met. In practice, however, assessments of how quota decisions change between these different actors and what consequences these changes have on population trends are rare. We combine a state-space population modelling approach with an analysis of quota decisions taken at both regional and national levels between 2007 and 2018 to build a set of decision-making models that together predict annual harvest quota values for Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Norway. We reveal a tendency for administrative decision-makers to compensate for consistent quota increases by political actors, particularly when the lynx population size estimate is above the regional target. Using population forecasts based on the ensemble of decision-making models, we show that such buffering of political biases ensures lynx population size remains close to regional and national targets in the long term. Our results go beyond the usual qualitative assessment of collaborative governance systems for carnivore management, revealing a system of checks and balances that, in the case of lynx in Norway, ensures both multi-stakeholder participation and sustainable harvest quotas. Nevertheless, we highlight important inter-regional differences in decision-making and population forecasts, the socio-ecological drivers of which need to be better understood to prevent future population declines. Synthesis and applications. Our work analyses the sequence of decisions leading to yearly quotas for lynx harvest in Norway, highlighting the collaborative and structural processes that together shape harvest sustainability. In doing so, we provide a predictive framework to evaluate participatory decision-making processes in wildlife management, paving the way for scientists and decision-makers to collaborate more widely in identifying where decision biases might lie and how institutional arrangements can be optimised to minimise them. We emphasise, however, that this is only possible if wildlife management decisions are documented and transparent

Activity Patterns of Eurasian Lynx Are Modulated by Light Regime and Individual Traits over a Wide Latitudinal Range

The activity patterns of most terrestrial animals are regarded as being primarily influenced by light, although other factors, such as sexual cycle and climatic conditions, can modify the underlying patterns. However, most activity studies have been limited to a single study area, which in turn limit the variability of light conditions and other factors. Here we considered a range of variables that might potentially influence the activity of a large carnivore, the Eurasian lynx, in a network of studies conducted with identical methodology in different areas spanning latitudes from 49 degrees 7'N in central Europe to 70 degrees 00'N in northern Scandinavia. The variables considered both light conditions, ranging from a day with a complete day-night cycle to polar night and polar day, as well as individual traits of the animals. We analysed activity data of 38 individual free-ranging lynx equipped with GPS-collars with acceleration sensors, covering more than 11, 000 lynx days. Mixed linear additive models revealed that the lynx activity level was not influenced by the daily daylight duration and the activity pattern was bimodal, even during polar night and polar day. The duration of the active phase of the activity cycle varied with the widening and narrowing of the photoperiod. Activity varied significantly with moonlight. Among adults, males were more active than females, and subadult lynx were more active than adults. In polar regions, the amplitude of the lynx daily activity pattern was low, likely as a result of the polycyclic activity pattern of their main prey, reindeer. At lower latitudes, the basic lynx activity pattern peaked during twilight, corresponding to the crepuscular activity pattern of the main prey, roe deer. Our results indicated that the basic activity of lynx is independent of light conditions, but is modified by both individual traits and the activity pattern of the locally most important prey

Activity Patterns of Eurasian Lynx Are Modulated by Light Regime and Individual Traits over a Wide Latitudinal Range

The activity patterns of most terrestrial animals are regarded as being primarily influenced by light, although other factors, such as sexual cycle and climatic conditions, can modify the underlying patterns. However, most activity studies have been limited to a single study area, which in turn limit the variability of light conditions and other factors. Here we considered a range of variables that might potentially influence the activity of a large carnivore, the Eurasian lynx, in a network of studies conducted with identical methodology in different areas spanning latitudes from 49 degrees 7'N in central Europe to 70 degrees 00'N in northern Scandinavia. The variables considered both light conditions, ranging from a day with a complete day-night cycle to polar night and polar day, as well as individual traits of the animals. We analysed activity data of 38 individual free-ranging lynx equipped with GPS-collars with acceleration sensors, covering more than 11, 000 lynx days. Mixed linear additive models revealed that the lynx activity level was not influenced by the daily daylight duration and the activity pattern was bimodal, even during polar night and polar day. The duration of the active phase of the activity cycle varied with the widening and narrowing of the photoperiod. Activity varied significantly with moonlight. Among adults, males were more active than females, and subadult lynx were more active than adults. In polar regions, the amplitude of the lynx daily activity pattern was low, likely as a result of the polycyclic activity pattern of their main prey, reindeer. At lower latitudes, the basic lynx activity pattern peaked during twilight, corresponding to the crepuscular activity pattern of the main prey, roe deer. Our results indicated that the basic activity of lynx is independent of light conditions, but is modified by both individual traits and the activity pattern of the locally most important prey

The Effect of Iron on Dislocation Evolution in Model and Commercial Zirconium Alloys

Although the evolution of irradiation-induced dislocation loops has been well correlated with irradiation-induced growth phenomena, the effect of alloying elements on this evolution remains elusive, especially at low fluences. To develop a more mechanistic understanding of the role iron has on loop formation, we used state-of-the-art techniques to study a proton-irradiated Zr-0.1Fe alloy and proton- and neutron-irradiated Zircaloy-2. The two alloys were irradiated with 2-MeV protons up to 7 dpa at 350\ub0C and Zircaloy-2 up to 14.7 7 1025n • m-2, approximately 24 dpa, in a boiling water reactor at approximately 300\ub0C. Baseline transmission electron microscopy showed that the Zr3Fe secondary-phase particles in the binary system were larger and fewer in number than the Zr (Fe, Cr)2and Zr2(Fe, Ni) particles in Zircaloy-2. An analysis of the irradiated binary alloy revealed only limited dissolution of Ze3Fe, suggesting little dispersion of iron into the matrix, while at the same time a higher 〈a〉-loop density was observed compared with Zircaloy-2 at equivalent proton dose levels. We also found that the redistribution of iron during irradiation led to the formation of iron nanoclusters. A delay in the onset of 〈c〉-loop nucleation in proton-irradiated Zircaloy-2 compared with the binary alloy was observed. The effect of iron redistributed from secondary-phase particles because of dissolution on the density and morphology of 〈a〉 and 〈c〉 loops is described. The implication this may have on irradiation-induced growth of zirconium fuel cladding is also discussed

A crossover randomised controlled trial of oral mandibular advancement devices for obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (TOMADO)

Rationale Mandibular advancement devices (MADs) are used to treat obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea syndrome (OSAHS) but evidence is lacking regarding their clinical and cost-effectiveness in less severe disease. Objectives To compare clinical- and cost-effectiveness of a range of MADs against no treatment in mild to moderate OSAHS. Measurements and methods This open-label, randomised, controlled, crossover trial was undertaken at a UK sleep centre. Adults with Apnoea-Hypopnoea Index (AHI) 5–<30/h and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score ≥9 underwent 6 weeks of treatment with three nonadjustable MADs: self-moulded (SleepPro 1; SP1); semi-bespoke (SleepPro 2; SP2); fully-bespoke MAD (bMAD); and 4 weeks no treatment. Primary outcome was AHI scored by a polysomnographer blinded to treatment. Secondary outcomes included ESS, quality of life, resource use and cost. Main results 90 patients were randomised and 83 were analysed. All devices reduced AHI compared with no treatment by 26% (95% CI 11% to 38%, p=0.001) for SP1, 33% (95% CI 24% to 41%) for SP2 and 36% (95% CI 24% to 45%, p<0.001) for bMAD. ESS was 1.51 (95% CI 0.73 to 2.29, p<0.001, SP1) to 2.37 (95% CI 1.53 to 3.22, p<0.001, bMAD) lower than no treatment (p<0.001 for all). Compliance was lower for SP1, which was the least preferred treatment at trial exit. All devices were cost-effective compared with no treatment at a £20 000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold. SP2 was the most cost-effective up to £39 800/QALY. Conclusions Non-adjustable MADs achieve clinically important improvements in mild to moderate OSAHS and are cost-effective

Holocene environmental history of a small coastal lake from north-eastern Kamchatka Peninsula.

AbstractA radiocarbon and tephra-dated sediment core from Lifebuoy Lake, located on the north-east coast of Kamchatka Peninsula, was analysed for pollen, spores, diatoms, chironomids and tephra in order to uncover regional environmental history.The 6500-year environmental history of Lifebuoy Lake correlates with the broad regional patterns of vegetation development and climate dynamics with both diatoms and chironomids showing near-synchronous changes.Between ca. 6300 and 3900calyrBP, the lake ecosystem was naturally enriched, with several Stephanodiscus species dominating the diatom plankton. This natural eutrophication state is likely to be due to a combination of the base-rich catchment geology, the fertilisation effect of several fires in the catchment, silica input from tephra layers and, possibly, nitrogen input from seabirds. The substantial tephra deposit at about 3850calyrBP might have stopped sedimentary phosphorus from entering the lake water thus decreasing the trophic state of the lake and facilitating the shift in diatom composition to a benthic Fragiliariaceae complex.Both diatoms and chironomids showed simultaneous compositional changes, which are also reflected by statistically significant changes in their rates of change 300–400years after the arrival of Pinus pumila in the lake catchment. The rapid increase in both total diatom concentration and the percentage abundance of the large heavy species, Aulacoseira subarctica might be a response to the change in timing and intensity of lake spring turn-over due to the changes in the patterns of North Pacific atmospheric circulation, most notably westward shift of the Aleutian Low.The two highest peaks in A. subarctica abundance at Lifebouy Lake occurred during opposite summer temperature inferences: the earlier peak (3500–2900calyrBP) coincided with warm summers and the latter peak (300calyrBP–present) occurred during the cold summer period. These imply that A. subarctica shows no direct response to the changes of summer air temperature. Instead, it appears to thrive during the periods of increased winter precipitation, thicker ice and late spring turn-over periods, i.e., shows indirect response to climate.The clearest effect of tephra deposition on the lake ecosystem is above 908cm (ca. 3800calyrBP) where the tephra deposit might have caused the shift from Stephanodiscus-dominated planktonic assemblages to the Fragilariaceae complex of benthic species. Tephra deposits might have also contributed towards the development of eutrophic plankton from about 6300calyrBP. It is not certain if several tephra deposits influenced diatom and chironomid changes during the last 300years

Socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of re-presentation to an Australian inner-city emergency department: implications for service delivery

BACKGROUND: People who have complex health care needs frequently access emergency departments for treatment of acute illness and injury. In particular, evidence suggests that those who are homeless, or suffer mental illness, or have a history of substance misuse, are often repeat users of emergency departments. The aim of this study was to describe the socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of emergency department re-presentations. Re-presentation was defined as a return visit to the same emergency department within 28 days of discharge from hospital. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of emergency department presentations occurring over a 24-month period to an Australian inner-city hospital. Characteristics were examined for their influence on the binary outcome of re-presentation within 28 days of discharge using logistic regression with the variable patient fitted as a random effect. RESULTS: From 64,147 presentations to the emergency department the re-presentation rate was 18.0% (n = 11,559) of visits and 14.4% (5,894/40,942) of all patients. Median time to re-presentation was 6 days, with more than half occurring within one week of discharge (60.8%; n = 6,873), and more than three-quarters within two weeks (80.9%; n = 9,151). The odds of re-presentation increased three-fold for people who were homeless compared to those living in stable accommodation (adjusted OR 3.09; 95% CI, 2.83 to 3.36). Similarly, the odds of re-presentation were significantly higher for patients receiving a government pension compared to those who did not (adjusted OR 1.73; 95% CI, 1.63 to 1.84), patients who left part-way through treatment compared to those who completed treatment and were discharged home (adjusted OR 1.64; 95% CI, 1.36 to 1.99), and those discharged to a residential-care facility compared to those who were discharged home (adjusted OR 1.46: 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.06). CONCLUSION: Emergency department re-presentation rates cluster around one week after discharge and rapidly decrease thereafter. Housing status and being a recipient of a government pension are the most significant risk factors. Early identification and appropriate referrals for those patients who are at risk of emergency department re-presentation will assist in the development of targeted strategies to improve health service delivery to this vulnerable group