Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 extremely well and predict that cycle~24 will be about 35% weaker than cycle~23.Comment: 10 pages 1 table 3 figure

Automated Reasoning and Presentation Support for Formalizing Mathematics in Mizar

This paper presents a combination of several automated reasoning and proof presentation tools with the Mizar system for formalization of mathematics. The combination forms an online service called MizAR, similar to the SystemOnTPTP service for first-order automated reasoning. The main differences to SystemOnTPTP are the use of the Mizar language that is oriented towards human mathematicians (rather than the pure first-order logic used in SystemOnTPTP), and setting the service in the context of the large Mizar Mathematical Library of previous theorems,definitions, and proofs (rather than the isolated problems that are solved in SystemOnTPTP). These differences poses new challenges and new opportunities for automated reasoning and for proof presentation tools. This paper describes the overall structure of MizAR, and presents the automated reasoning systems and proof presentation tools that are combined to make MizAR a useful mathematical service.Comment: To appear in 10th International Conference on. Artificial Intelligence and Symbolic Computation AISC 201

P wave indices, heart rate variability and anthropometry in a healthy South Asian population

Background: South Asians have a low prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in comparison with White Europeans despite a higher burden of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease. The reason for this disparity is unclear but may relate to electrophysiological or structural differences within the atria or variations in autonomic function. We aimed to assess these areas using a range of non-invasive cardiac investigations. Methods: A prospective cohort study was performed on 200 South Asian and 200 Caucasian healthy volunteers aged 18–40 years. All subjects underwent electrocardiography (ECG), echocardiography and anthropometric measurements. Eighty subjects in each cohort underwent 24 hour ambulatory ECG and fifty subjects in each cohort underwent exercise testing. Results: Compared with White Europeans, South Asians were of a smaller height with lower lean body mass and smaller left atrial size. They had reduced P wave dispersion and P wave terminal force in lead V1. South Asians had a lower burden of supraventricular ectopy. They had a higher mean heart rate and South Asian males had lower heart rate variability, suggestive of sympathetic predominance. Exercise capacity was lower in South Asians. Conclusions: South Asians have differences in left atrial size, P wave indices, burden of supraventricular ectopy, heart rate, heart rate variability and anthropometric measurements. These differences may relate to variations in atrial morphology, atrial electrophysiology and autonomic function and might help to explain why South Asians are less susceptible to developing AF

The Magnetic Sun: Reversals and Long-Term Variations

A didactic introduction to current thinking on some aspects of the solar dynamo is given for geophysicists and planetary scientists.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures; Space Science Rev., in pres

A Comparison of Solar Cycle Variations in the Equatorial Rotation Rates of the Sun's Subsurface, Surface, Corona, and Sunspot Groups

Using the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot-group data for the period 1985-2010, the variations in the annual mean equatorial-rotation rates of the sunspot groups are determined and compared with the known variations in the solar equatorial-rotation rates determined from the following data: i) the plasma rotation rates at 0.94Rsun, 0.95Rsun,...,1.0Rsun measured by Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) during the period 1995-2010, ii) the data on the soft X-ray corona determined from Yohkoh/SXT full disk images for the years 1992-2001, iii) the data on small bright coronal structures (SBCS) which were traced in Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/EIT images during the period 1998-2006, and iv) the Mount Wilson Doppler-velocity measurements during the period 1986-2007. A large portion (up to approximate 30 deg latitude) of the mean differential-rotation profile of the sunspot groups lies between those of the internal differential-rotation rates at 0.94Rsun and 0.98Rsun.The variation in the yearly mean equatorial-rotation rate of the sunspot groups seems to be lagging that of the equatorial-rotation rate determined from the GONG measurements by one to two years.The amplitude of the latter is very small.The solar-cycle variation in the equatorial-rotation rate of the solar corona closely matches that determined from the sunspot-group data.The variation in the equatorial-rotation rate determined from the Mount Wilson Doppler-velocity data closely resembles the corresponding variation in the equatorial-rotation rate determined from the sunspot-group data that included the values of the abnormal angular motions (> 3 deg per day) of the sunspot groups. Implications of these results are pointed out.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures, accepted by Solar Physic

Checking bounded reachability in asynchronous systems by symbolic event tracing

This report presents a new symbolic technique for checking reachability properties of asynchronous systems by reducing the problem to satisfiability in restrained difference logic. The analysis is bounded by fixing a finite set of potential events, each of which may occur at most once in any order. The events are specified using high-level Petri nets. The logic encoding describes the space of possible causal links between events rather than possible sequences of states as in Bounded Model Checking. Independence between events is exploited intrinsically without partial order reductions, and the handling of data is symbolic. On a family of benchmarks, the proposed approach is consistently faster than Bounded Model Checking. In addition, this report presents a compact encoding of the restrained subset of difference logic in propositional logic

Active region formation through the negative effective magnetic pressure instability

The negative effective magnetic pressure instability operates on scales encompassing many turbulent eddies and is here discussed in connection with the formation of active regions near the surface layers of the Sun. This instability is related to the negative contribution of turbulence to the mean magnetic pressure that causes the formation of large-scale magnetic structures. For an isothermal layer, direct numerical simulations and mean-field simulations of this phenomenon are shown to agree in many details in that their onset occurs at the same depth. This depth increases with increasing field strength, such that the maximum growth rate of this instability is independent of the field strength, provided the magnetic structures are fully contained within the domain. A linear stability analysis is shown to support this finding. The instability also leads to a redistribution of turbulent intensity and gas pressure that could provide direct observational signatures.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, submitted to Solar Physic

Influence of antenatal physical exercise on haemodynamics in pregnant women: a flexible randomisation approach

Background: Normal pregnancy is associated with marked changes in haemodynamic function, however theinfluence and potential benefits of antenatal physical exercise at different stages of pregnancy and postpartumremain unclear. The aim of this study was therefore to characterise the influence of regular physical exercise onhaemodynamic variables at different stages of pregnancy and also in the postpartum period.Methods: Fifty healthy pregnant women were recruited and randomly assigned (2 × 2 × 2 design) to a land orwater-based exercise group or a control group. Exercising groups attended weekly classes from the 20th week ofpregnancy onwards. Haemodynamic assessments (heart rate, cardiac output, stroke volume, total peripheralresistance, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and end diastolic index) were performed using the Task Forcehaemodynamic monitor at 12–16, 26–28, 34–36 and 12 weeks following birth, during a protocol including posturalmanoeurvres (supine and standing) and light exercise.Results: In response to an acute bout of exercise in the postpartum period, stroke volume and end diastolic indexwere greater in the exercise group than the non-exercising control group (p = 0.041 and p = 0.028 respectively).Total peripheral resistance and diastolic blood pressure were also lower (p = 0.015 and p = 0.007, respectively) in theexercise group. Diastolic blood pressure was lower in the exercise group during the second trimester (p = 0.030).Conclusions: Antenatal exercise does not appear to substantially alter maternal physiology with advancinggestation, speculating that the already vast changes in maternal physiology mask the influences of antenatalexercise, however it does appear to result in an improvement in a woman’s haemodynamic function (enhancedventricular ejection performance and reduced blood pressure) following the end of pregnancy