Careless whisper: Political elite discourses activate national identities for far-right voting preferences

While exclusionary national identities are widespread among Europeans, relatively few people vote for the far right in most countries. Thus, an exclusionary identity in many cases does not lead to voting for the most nativist types of parties. We explain this empirical puzzle by showing that these identities need to be activated to become behaviourally relevant. To this end, we analyse longitudinal comparative data of over 135,000 individuals across more than 26 years and 26 countries combining different survey programmes and manifesto data. We use latent class analysis to show that over half of respondents hold exclusionary conceptions of nationhood. Moreover, this type of national identity predicts voting far right. Using multi-level modelling and within-country estimators, we further demonstrate that this relationship is significantly stronger when a country's political elites across all parties become more exclusionary. Taking the activation hypothesis to the test in a European context, we conclude that the effect of national identity is conditional on its prior activation.Obwohl ausgrenzende nationale Identitäten in Europa weit verbreitet sind, wählen in den meisten Ländern relativ wenige Menschen die extreme Rechte. Daher führt eine ausgrenzende Identität in vielen Fällen nicht dazu, dass solche Parteien gewählt werden. Die Autor*innen zeigen, dass diese nationalen Identitäten aktiviert werden müssen, um verhaltensrelevant zu werden

Discursive Determinants of Attitudes towards Immigrants: Political Parties and Mass Media as Contextual Sources of Threat Perceptions

Immigration has been a vividly discussed topic in Europe in recent years, leading to an increased polarisation in many Western societies. This relates to rising immigration rates as well as to significant, dramatic events such as terrorist attacks and acts of xenophobic violence. A plethora of studies has investigated the impact of a country’s actual immigration on individual attitudes towards migrants. However, the impact of national discourses about immigration has received significantly less attention in empirical-quantitative research. This imbalance is striking because research has shown that natives’ perceptions of their country’s ethnic composition are largely biased. Combining sociology and communication sciences, I argue that immigration related discourses influence exclusionary attitudes and ethnic resentment beyond actual demographic circumstances. This is because such discourses are potent activators of feelings of threat, especially regarding specific kinds of ethnic out-groups. I examine effects of mass media, political parties and public speakers on general as well as on group-specific attitudes. To this end, I analyse longitudinal, cross-national, and experimental data sources. The accumulated evidence supports my argument. General media salience affects general concerns about immigration. Moreover, specific kinds of discourses also have group-specific effects, depending on the overall tone and on the particular content. Furthermore, individual receptiveness to messages and discourses is crucial, as indicated by the fact that discourse effects are significantly stronger for certain individuals throughout all studies. This includes those with conservative ideology, lower education, or few daily experiences with foreigners. In sum, I argue that social scientists are well advised to pay attention to the discursive and political climate characterising a particular research setting. Moreover, analysing differentiated attitudinal measures allow a more nuanced understanding of the contextual processes that shape public opinion in a historical period

Catalyst of hate? Ethnic insulting on YouTube in the aftermath of terror attacks in France, Germany and the United Kingdom 2014–2017

In the last 20 years, several major terror attacks conducted in the name of political Islam hit Western Europe. We examine the impact of such terror attacks on hostile behaviour on social media from a cross-national perspective. To this end, we draw upon time-stamped, behavioural data from YouTube and focus on the frequency and popularity (‘likes’) of ethnically insulting comments among a corpus of approximately one hundred thousand comments. We study aggregate change and use individual-level panel data to investigate within-user change in ethnic insulting in periods leading up to and following major terror events in Germany, France and the UK. Results indicate that terror attacks boost interest in immigration-related topics in general, and lead to a disproportional increase in hate speech in particular. Moreover, we find that attack effects spill over to other countries in several, but not all, instances. Deeper analyses suggest, however, that this pattern is mainly driven by changes in the composition of users and not by changing behaviour of individual users. That is, a surge in ethnic insulting comes from hateful users newly entering online discussions, rather than previous users becoming more hateful following an attack

The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report.

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process

Attitudes toward refugees in contemporary Europe: A longitudinal perspective on cross-national differences

In 2015, the number of people seeking asylum in Europe skyrocketed. However, asylum applications were mainly concentrated in a few destination countries such as Germany, Austria, or Sweden. After the so-called EU-Turkey deal, asylum rates quickly dropped in subsequent years. I examine how these developments affected public opinion from both a static and a dynamic comparative perspective. The rapid and largely unpredicted rise in refugee numbers and their prominence in public debates make demographic changes potent drivers of out-group hostility. The analysis of data from over 50,000 individuals in 22 countries contained in the seventh and eighth waves of the European Social Survey shows that attitudes toward refugees do not simply follow trends in asylum applications. Significantly lowering refugee numbers, hence, did not counter anti-refugee sentiments in the European public. Based on intra-country variation over time, the model rather predicts an increase in negative attitudes during times of considerable demographic shifts. Deeper analyses reveal that this effect is stronger for conservative Europeans as well as for those who distrust EU-politics. Moreover, while a general willingness to help is associated with more openness toward refugees, actually experiencing foreigner inflow diminishes this link, suggesting limitations of humanitarian concerns. Results are stable across various modelling and sample choices and not driven by individual countries. In sum, these findings demonstrate the importance of temporal dynamics for the formation of attitudes toward refugees in contemporary Europe and point to potentially polarizing effects of immigration along ideological lines

replication code for Schmidt-Catran & Czymara (2020). Soziale Welt.

We analyze whether the Islamist terror attack on the Christmas market in Berlin in 2016 had an impact on public opinion toward immigration in general and, since the attacker has entered Germany to apply for asylum, toward refugees in particular. An analysis of this natural experiment reveals a negative shift regarding the latter, while no differences are observed for the former. To shed more light on the driver of attitude change, we combine these findings with a quantitative content analysis of online media reporting about refugees before and after the attack. Mass media have long been considered to have an impact on exclusionary attitudes toward ethnic minorities. However, empirical evidence on this relationship remains largely anecdotal. We draw upon unsupervised machine learning to quantify the developments in reporting in three popular German online news websites. Results reveal that the attack had significant impact on media reporting on these websites. However, the strong focus on the attack was only short lived, quickly decreasing already in the second week after the attack. Linking media data to the public opinion data reveals no clear connection between reporting and attitudes. In contrast to theoretical expectations, descriptive evidence even shows that both follow almost opposite trends, since people changed their attitudes only weeks after the attack. We discuss potential explanations of these, at first sight, counterintuitive findings

"Did you read about Berlin?" Terrorist attacks, online media reporting and support for refugees in Germany

We analyze whether the Islamist terror attack on the Christmas market in Berlin in 2016 had an impact on public opinion toward immigration in general and, since the attacker has entered Germany to apply for asylum, toward refugees in particular. An analysis of this natural experiment reveals a negative shift regarding the latter, while no differences are observed for the former. To shed more light on the driver of attitude change, we combine these findings with a quantitative content analysis of online media reporting about refugees before and after the attack. Mass media have long been considered to have an impact on exclusionary attitudes toward ethnic minorities. However, empirical evidence on this relationship remains largely anecdotal. We draw upon unsupervised machine learning to quantify the developments in reporting in three popular German online news websites. Results reveal that the attack had significant impact on media reporting on these websites. However, the strong focus on the attack was only short lived, quickly decreasing already in the second week after the attack. Linking media data to the public opinion data reveals no clear connection between reporting and attitudes. In contrast to theoretical expectations, descriptive evidence even shows that both follow almost opposite trends, since people changed their attitudes only weeks after the attack. We discuss potential explanations of these, at first sight, counterintuitive findings

All Cops are Trusted? How Context and Time Shape Immigrants’ Trust in the Police in Europe

The relationship between police and ethnic minorities has been the subject of increasing interest in many Western societies in recent years. We examine first-generation immigrants’ trust in the police in Europe from a comparative and longitudinal perspective. Based on roughly 20,000 immigrants observed in 22 countries over 13 years in the European Social Survey, results show that initially high levels of trust in the police among immigrants tend to erode with the length of their stay in the host country. We show that two simultaneous processes drive this pattern: a fading reference effect (downward assimilation) and an increasing discrimination effect. Cross-national comparisons show that, on average, immigrants in countries with more police trust the police less. However, there is no effect of police size within countries, mostly because police numbers hardly change over time. We discuss implications for future research and policy development based on our findings

Discursive Determinants of Attitudes towards Immigrants: Political Parties and Mass Media as Contextual Sources of Threat Perceptions

Immigration has been a vividly discussed topic in Europe in recent years, leading to an increased polarisation in many Western societies. This relates to rising immigration rates as well as to significant, dramatic events such as terrorist attacks and acts of xenophobic violence. A plethora of studies has investigated the impact of a country’s actual immigration on individual attitudes towards migrants. However, the impact of national discourses about immigration has received significantly less attention in empirical-quantitative research. This imbalance is striking because research has shown that natives’ perceptions of their country’s ethnic composition are largely biased. Combining sociology and communication sciences, I argue that immigration related discourses influence exclusionary attitudes and ethnic resentment beyond actual demographic circumstances. This is because such discourses are potent activators of feelings of threat, especially regarding specific kinds of ethnic out-groups. I examine effects of mass media, political parties and public speakers on general as well as on group-specific attitudes. To this end, I analyse longitudinal, cross-national, and experimental data sources. The accumulated evidence supports my argument. General media salience affects general concerns about immigration. Moreover, specific kinds of discourses also have group-specific effects, depending on the overall tone and on the particular content. Furthermore, individual receptiveness to messages and discourses is crucial, as indicated by the fact that discourse effects are significantly stronger for certain individuals throughout all studies. This includes those with conservative ideology, lower education, or few daily experiences with foreigners. In sum, I argue that social scientists are well advised to pay attention to the discursive and political climate characterising a particular research setting. Moreover, analysing differentiated attitudinal measures allow a more nuanced understanding of the contextual processes that shape public opinion in a historical period

replication code for Czymara (2020). Social Forces.

In 2015, the number of people seeking asylum in Europe skyrocketed. However, asylum applications were mainly concentrated in a few destination countries such as Germany, Austria, or Sweden. After the so-called EU-Turkey deal, asylum rates quickly dropped in subsequent years. I examine how these developments affected public opinion from both a static and a dynamic comparative perspective. The rapid and largely unpredicted rise in refugee numbers and their prominence in public debates make demographic changes potent drivers of out-group hostility. The analysis of data from over 50,000 individuals in 22 countries contained in the seventh and eighth waves of the European Social Survey shows that attitudes toward refugees do not simply follow trends in asylum applications. Significantly lowering refugee numbers, hence, did not counter anti-refugee sentiments in the European public. Based on intra-country variation over time, the model rather predicts an increase in negative attitudes during times of considerable demographic shifts. Deeper analyses reveal that this effect is stronger for conservative Europeans as well as for those who distrust EU-politics. Moreover, while a general willingness to help is associated with more openness toward refugees, actually experiencing foreigner inflow diminishes this link, suggesting limitations of humanitarian concerns. Results are stable across various modelling and sample choices and not driven by individual countries. In sum, these findings demonstrate the importance of temporal dynamics for the formation of attitudes toward refugees in contemporary Europe and point to potentially polarizing effects of immigration along ideological lines