Renal function, revascularization and risk

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Market and Style Timing: German Equity and Bond Funds

We apply parametric and non-parametric estimates to test market and style timing ability of individual German equity and bond mutual funds using a sample of over 500 equity and 350 bond funds, over the period 1990-2009. For equity funds, both approaches indicate no successful market timers in the 1990-1999 or 2000-2009 periods, but in 2000-2009 the non-parametric approach gives fewer unsuccessful market timers than the parametric approach. There is evidence of successful style timing using the parametric approach, and unsuccessful style timing, particularly in the 2000-2009 period. There is evidence of positive and negative bond timing in the 2000-09 period

Utility of B-type natriuretic peptide in predicting medium-term mortality in patients undergoing major non-cardiac surgery

We assessed the ability of pre-operative B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels to predict medium-term mortality in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery. During a median 654 days follow-up 33 patients from a total cohort of 204 patients (16%) died. The optimal cut-off in this cohort, determined using a receiver operating characteristic curve, was >35pg.mL-1. This was associated with a 3.47-fold increase in the hazard of death (p=0.001) and had a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 68% for this outcome. These findings extend recent work demonstrating that BNP levels obtained before major noncardiac surgery can be used to predict peri-operative morbidity, and indicate that they also forecast medium-term mortality.This work was supported by a grant from TENOVUS Scotland. The Health Services Research Unit is core-funded by the Chief Scientists Office of the Scottish Executive Health Department.Peer reviewedAuthor versio

Central European foreign exchange markets: a cross-spectral analysis of the 2007 financial crisis

This paper investigates co-movements between currency markets of Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Euro in the year following the drying up of money markets in August 2007. The paper shows that assessing the degree of foreign currency co-movement by correlation can lead to concluding, erroneously, that financial contagion has not occurred. Using cross-spectral methods, the paper shows that defining contagion as changes in the structure of co-movements of asset prices encompasses more of the complex nature of exchange rate dynamics. What is shown is that, following August 2007, there is increased in the intensity of co-movements, but non-linearly. Focusing on the activities of a mix of banks and currency managers, it is suggested that changes in the structure of currency interaction present an unfavourable view of the contagion experienced by at least three of these currencies

What Does Rebalancing Really Achieve?

There is now a substantial literature on the effects of rebalancing on portfolio performance. However, this literature contains frequent misattribution between ‘rebalancing returns’ which are specific to the act of rebalancing, and ‘diversification returns’ which can be earned by both rebalanced and unrebalanced strategies. Confusion on this issue can encourage investors to follow strategies which involve insufficient diversification and excessive transactions costs. This paper identifies the misleading claims that are made for rebalanced strategies and demonstrates theoretically and by simulation that the apparent advantages of rebalanced strategies over infinite horizons give an inaccurate impression of their performance over finite horizons