How perilous are broad-scale correlations with environmental variables?

Many studies correlate geographic variation of biotic variables (e.g., species ranges, species richness, etc.) with variation in environmental variables (climate, topography, history). Often, the resulting correlations are interpreted as evidence of causal links. However, both the dependent and independent variables in these analyses are strongly spatially structured. Several studies have suggested that spatially structured variables may be significantly correlated with one another despite the absence of a causal link between them. In this study we ask: if two variables are spatially structured, but causally unrelated, how strong is the expected correlation between them? As a specific example, we consider the correlations between broad-scale variation in gamma species richness and climatic variables. Are these correlations likely to be statistical artefacts? To answer these questions, we randomly generated pseudo-climatic variables that have the same range and spatial autocorrelation as temperature and precipitation in the Americas. We related mammal and bird species richness both to the real and the pseudo-climatic variables. We also observed the correlations among pseudo-climate simulations. Correlations among randomly generated, spatially unstructured, variables are very small. In contrast, the median correlations between spatially structured variables are near r2=0.1 – 0.3, and the 95% confidence limits extend to r2=0.6 – 0.7. Viewing this as a null expectation, given spatially structured variables, it is worth nothing that published richness–climate correlations are typically marginally stronger than these values. However, many other published richness–environment correlations would fail this test. Tests of the “predictive ability” of a correlation cannot reliably distinguish correlations due to spatial structure from causal relationships. Our results suggest a three-part update of Tobler’s “First Law of Geography”: #1) Everything in geography that is spatially structured will be collinear. #2) Near things are more related than distant things. #3) The more strongly spatially structured two variables are, the stronger the collinearity between them will be

The Nearshore Fish Fauna of Bonne Bay, a Fjord within Gros Morne National Park, Newfoundland

A standardized survey of the nearshore fish fauna of Bonne Bay, a fjord within Gros Morne National Park in western Newfoundland, was conducted using beach seines, gill-nets and bottom trawls during the month of June over a seven year period (2002- 2008). The survey documents the presence of 31 fish species (in 17 taxonomic families). Sampling sites varied in benthic habitat and associated fish assemblages. Both juvenile and adult life history stages of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were present in Bonne Bay, suggesting the presence of a local population or “bay cod stock”. Acadian redfish (Sebastes fasciatus) live in the bay, and may be members of a genetically differentiable population of redfish. Striped wolfish (Anarhichas lupus), a fish species protected under Canada’s Species at Risk Act (SARA), inhabits Bonne Bay. Surrounded by Gros Morne National Park, this bay with a diverse fish fauna is a focus of local stewardship and conservation efforts

Is habitat conversion likely to impede the ability of bird species to track changing climate?

As climate changes, species’ ranges may shift poleward. However, habitat loss in intervening areas has been hypothesized potentially to impede the movements of these species. Populations near range margins offer opportunities to study how marginal species have reacted to habitat loss. We examined the presence/absence of bird species in landscapes that were historically mainly forested (natural land covers) in Southern Ontario, Canada. We used logistic regression to determine each bird species’ probability of occupancy (pocc) as a function of natural cover in 991 landscapes, each 100-km2. We distinguished three groups of species: i) southerly species whose northern range limits fall in the study area (n=37), ii) northerly species whose southern range limits fall in the study area (n=35), and iii) mid-range species (n=106). We compared pocc for these three groups of species in six different habitat guilds. We found that species near their southern range edges are less likely to occur in landscapes where forest amount is reduced, while species near their northern range edge are more likely to occur in landscapes with reduced forest. This result is independent of habitat guild. Our results are inconsistent with the hypothesis in the climate change literature proposing that loss of natural land cover near poleward range margins would inhibit range expansion in response to climatic warming. Rather, we hypothesize that, at southern range edges, the dual stresses of climatic warming and forest conversion both reduce species’ ability to occupy a landscape. However, near northern (potentially expanding) range edges, partially disturbed landscapes are more readily invaded than undisturbed landscapes

Automated reduction of submillimetre single-dish heterodyne data from the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope using ORAC-DR

With the advent of modern multi-detector heterodyne instruments that can result in observations generating thousands of spectra per minute it is no longer feasible to reduce these data as individual spectra. We describe the automated data reduction procedure used to generate baselined data cubes from heterodyne data obtained at the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. The system can automatically detect baseline regions in spectra and automatically determine regridding parameters, all without input from a user. Additionally it can detect and remove spectra suffering from transient interference effects or anomalous baselines. The pipeline is written as a set of recipes using the ORAC-DR pipeline environment with the algorithmic code using Starlink software packages and infrastructure. The algorithms presented here can be applied to other heterodyne array instruments and have been applied to data from historical JCMT heterodyne instrumentation.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, submitted to Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Applying sense-making to integrated health IT: Renal care in the UK and Sweden

Information technology (IT) in healthcare combines opportunities for improved integrated healthcare delivery with barrierswhich include clinician resistance and low adoption rates. While national level initiatives are taken to promote electronichealthcare (e-health), it is at the grassroots level that their outcomes unfold. This paper employs sense-making theory toextend prior research on the implementation of health IT by investigating the introduction of IT into renal care units in theUK and Sweden. Issues such as management support, user training, usability of systems and perceived benefits of technologywere found to have a direct impact on users’ sense-making processes. The manner in which people make sense of imposedsystems has far reaching effects, as the gap between intended results and actual outcomes is not limited to disparities betweenmicro-level end-users alone, but spans multiple levels including higher authorities, as well as individuals at the grassrootslevel

Implementation of foetal fibronectin testing: Admissions, maternal interventions and costs at 1 year

Foetal fibronectin testing (fFN) has a high negative predictive value for preterm delivery, but it has a cost implication. This two-stage prospective study evaluated the real patient costs and clinical impact of introducing the fFN test in women presenting acutely with threatened preterm labour in a tertiary UK obstetric hospital. Introduction of the fFN test for women with threatened preterm labour reduced antenatal admissions and in utero transfers, and reduced steroid treatment and tocolysis, even at 1 year after implementation. The total number of bed days for women with threatened preterm labour who did not deliver during admission fell from 132 (mean 8.8 days) to 25 days (mean 3.6 days). The mean cost of admission per woman before introduction of the fFN test was £1032 (95% CI £880 to £1184); after it was £339 (95% CI £261 to £417). In this small single centre study, the introduction of the test produced a cost saving of £693 per woman (95% CI, £464 to £922) which over 12 months potentially saves £74844 (95% CI £50,112 to £99,576). Further studies are needed to formally evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the fFN test and its impact on clinical decision-making in large populations

Urothelial cells may indicate underlying bacteriuria in pregnancy at term: a comparative study

BACKGROUND: Urinary tract infection is common in pregnancy. Urine is sampled from by mid-stream collection (MSU). If epithelial cells are detected, contamination by vulvo-vagial skin and skin bacteria is assumed. Outside pregnancy, catheter specimen urine (CSU) is considered less susceptible to contamination. We compared MSU and CSU methods in term pregnancy to test these assumptions. METHODS: Healthy pregnant women at term gestation (n = 32, median gestation 38 + 6 weeks, IQR 37 + 6–39 + 2) undergoing elective caesarean section provided a MSU and CSU for paired comparison that were each analysed for bacterial growth and bladder distress by fresh microscopy, sediment culture and immunofluorescent staining. Participants completed a detailed questionnaire on lower urinary tract symptoms. Epithelial cells found in urine were tested for urothelial origin by immunofluorescent staining of Uroplakin III (UP3), a urothelial cell surface glycoprotein. Urothelial cells with closely associated bacteria, or “clue cells”, were also counted. Wilcoxons signed rank test was used for paired analysis. RESULTS: Women reported multiple lower urinary tract symptoms (median 3, IQR 0–8). MSU had higher white blood cell counts (median 67 vs 46, z = 2.75, p = 0.005) and epithelial cell counts (median 41 vs 22, z = 2.57, p = 0.009) on fresh microscopy. The proportion of UP3+ cells was not different (0.920 vs 0.935, z = 0.08, p = 0.95), however MSU had a higher proportion of clue cells (0.978 vs 0.772, z = 3.17, p = 0.001). MSU had more bacterial growth on sediment culture compared to CSU specimens (median 8088 total cfu/ml vs 0, z = 4.86, p = 0.001). Despite this, routine laboratory cultures reported a negative screening culture for 40.6% of MSU specimens. CONCLUSION: Our findings have implications for the correct interpretation of MSU findings in term pregnancy. We observed that MSU samples had greater bacterial growth and variety when compared to CSU samples. The majority of epithelial cells in both MSU and CSU samples were urothelial in origin, implying no difference in contamination. MSU samples had a higher proportion of clue cells to UP3+ cells, indicating a greater sensitivity to bacterial invasion. Urinary epithelial cells should not be disregarded as contamination, instead alerting us to underlying bacterial activity

Frontiers of Biogeography:Taking its place as a journal of choice for the publication of high quality biogeographical research articles

Through this editorial we seek your support and engagement as authors, readers and reviewers as we take the next steps in developing Frontiers of Biogeography as a leading international journal of biogeography and related subdisciplines. Here we make the case for submitting your next contribution to this journal: affordable, gold libre, open access, with the support of a disciplinarily-informed editorial and review team, which returns benefits to the biogeography community.Peer Reviewe