The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Comparative prebiotic activity of mixtures of cereal grain polysaccharides

The main components of the non-starch polysaccharide (NSP) fraction of wheat flour are arabinoxylan (AX) and β-glucan. These are also present in other cereal grains, but their proportions vary with AX being the major component in wheat and rye and β-glucan in barley and oats. Therefore, it was hypothesised that these NSPs could act synergistically when fermented in vitro at the ratios present in the major foods consumed, resulting in increased prebiotic activity. AX and β-glucan were therefore tested in in vitro fermentation studies to assess their prebiotic activity when used individually and/or in different ratios. Short-chain fatty-acids (SCFAs) produced from in vitro fermentation were measured using HPLC and bacterial populations were measured using flow cytometry with fluorescence in situ hybridisation (Flow-FISH). Fermentation of AX alone resulted in a significant bifidogenic activity and increased concentrations of SCFAs, mainly acetate, after 8-24 h of fermentation, however β-glucan alone did not show prebiotic activity. The greatest prebiotic activity, based on concentration of total SCFAs and increases in total bacteria as well as beneficial Bifidobacterium and Clostridium coccoides/Eubacterium groups, was observed when AX and β-glucan were combined at a 3:1 ratio, which corresponds to their ratios in wheat flour which is major source of cereal fibre in the diet. This indicates that the population of bacteria in the human GI tract may be modulated by the composition of the fibre in the diet, to maximise the prebiotic potential

Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans

Background: Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores). Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable) food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry), and safe (less variable) food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake), and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves). We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively. Conclusions/Significance: We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has significant implications for both real-world economic transactions and for aberrant decision-making in eating disorders and obesity

Variable responses of human microbiomes to dietary supplementation with resistant starch

Abstract Background The fermentation of dietary fiber to various organic acids is a beneficial function provided by the microbiota in the human large intestine. In particular, butyric acid contributes to host health by facilitating maintenance of epithelial integrity, regulating inflammation, and influencing gene expression in colonocytes. We sought to increase the concentration of butyrate in 20 healthy young adults through dietary supplementation with resistant starch (unmodified potato starch—resistant starch (RS) type 2). Methods Fecal samples were collected from individuals to characterize butyrate concentration via liquid chromatography and composition of the microbiota via surveys of 16S rRNA-encoding gene sequences from the Illumina MiSeq platform. Random Forest and LEfSe analyses were used to associate responses in butyrate production to features of the microbiota. Results RS supplementation increased fecal butyrate concentrations in this cohort from 8 to 12 mmol/kg wet feces, but responses varied widely between individuals. Individuals could be categorized into three groups based upon butyrate concentrations before and during RS: enhanced, high, and low (n = 11, 3, and 6, respectively). Fecal butyrate increased by 67 % in the enhanced group (from 9 to 15 mmol/kg), while it remained ≥11 mmol/kg in the high group and ≤8 mmol/kg in the low group. Microbiota analyses revealed that the relative abundance of RS-degrading organisms—Bifidobacterium adolescentis or Ruminococcus bromii—increased from ~2 to 9 % in the enhanced and high groups, but remained at ~1.5 % in the low group. The lack of increase in RS-degrading bacteria in the low group may explain why there was no increase in fecal butyrate in response to RS. The microbiota of individuals in the high group were characterized by an elevated abundance of the butyrogenic microbe Eubacterium rectale (~6 % in high vs. 3 % in enhanced and low groups) throughout the study. Conclusions We document the heterogeneous responses in butyrate concentrations upon RS supplementation and identify characteristic of the microbiota that appear to underlie this variation. This study complements and extends other studies that call for personalized approaches to manage beneficial functions provided by gut microbiomes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134598/1/40168_2016_Article_178.pd

Capture the fracture: a best practice framework and global campaign to break the fragility fracture cycle

Summary The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) Capture the Fracture Campaign aims to support implementation of Fracture Liaison Services (FLS) throughout the world. Introduction FLS have been shown to close the ubiquitous secondary fracture prevention care gap, ensuring that fragility fracture sufferers receive appropriate assessment and intervention to reduce future fracture risk. Methods Capture the Fracture has developed internationally endorsed standards for best practice, will facilitate change at the national level to drive adoption of FLS and increase awareness of the challenges and opportunities presented by secondary fracture prevention to key stakeholders. The Best Practice Framework (BPF) sets an international benchmark for FLS, which defines essential and aspirational elements of service delivery. Results The BPF has been reviewed by leading experts from many countries and subject to beta-testing to ensure that it is internationally relevant and fit-for-purpose. The BPF will also serve as a measurement tool for IOF to award ‘Capture the Fracture Best Practice Recognition’ to celebrate successful FLS worldwide and drive service development in areas of unmet need. The Capture the Fracture website will provide a suite of resources related to FLS and secondary fracture prevention, which will be updated as new materials become available. A mentoring programme will enable those in the early stages of development of FLS to learn from colleagues elsewhere that have achieved Best Practice Recognition. A grant programme is in development to aid clinical systems which require financial assistance to establish FLS in their localities. Conclusion Nearly half a billion people will reach retirement age during the next 20 years. IOF has developed Capture the Fracture because this is the single most important thing that can be done to directly improve patient care, of both women and men, and reduce the spiralling fracture-related care costs worldwide.</p

Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Niño Southern Oscillation, Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis

Michael Johansson and colleagues use wavelet analysis to show that there is limited evidence for a multiyear relationship between climate and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand

Metabolic and Hormonal Changes After Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass and Sleeve Gastrectomy: a Randomized, Prospective Trial

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms of amelioration of glycemic control early after laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) or laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) are not fully understood. METHODS: In this prospective, randomized 1-year trial, outcomes of LRYGB and LSG patients were compared, focusing on possibly responsible mechanisms. Twelve patients were randomized to LRYGB and 11 to LSG. These non-diabetic patients were investigated before and 1 week, 3 months, and 12 months after surgery. A standard test meal was given after an overnight fast, and blood samples were collected before, during, and after food intake for hormone profiles (cholecystokinin (CCK), ghrelin, glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), peptide YY (PYY)). RESULTS: In both groups, body weight and BMI decreased markedly and comparably leading to an identical improvement of abnormal glycemic control (HOMA index). Post-surgery, patients had markedly increased postprandial plasma GLP-1 and PYY levels (p > 0.05) with ensuing improvement in glucose homeostasis. At 12 months, LRYGB ghrelin levels approached preoperative values. The postprandial, physiologic fluctuation returned, however, while LSG ghrelin levels were still markedly attenuated. One year postoperatively, CCK concentrations after test meals increased less in the LRYGB group than they did in the LSG group, with the latter showing significantly higher maximal CCK concentrations (p > 0.012 vs. LRYGB). CONCLUSIONS: Bypassing the foregut is not the only mechanism responsible for improved glucose homeostasis. The balance between foregut (ghrelin, CCK) and hindgut (GLP-1, PYY) hormones is a key to understanding the underlying mechanisms