Optimal strategies for regional cultivar testing

In undertaking cultivar trials, the variability of the response of the cultivars to the different environments in which they are grown introduces the possibility of release errors and non‐release errors in the decisions made on the basis of the trial results. In this article a model is developed that accounts for the economic costs of those errors as well as the costs of operating the trials, and enables the features of the optimal cultivar testing program to be identified. The model is illustrated by application to wheat cultivar trials in central and southern NSW.Crop Production/Industries,

Linear mixed models for genomic selection

We commence by considering the analysis of a single trial. Let y denote the n x 1 vector of (phenotypic) data, where n is the number of plots in the trial

Anisotropic matern correlation and spatial prediction using REML

The Mat´ern correlation function provides great flexibility for modeling spatially correlated random processes in two dimensions, in particular via a smoothness parameter, whose estimation allows data to determine the degree of smoothness of a spatial process. The extension to include anisotropy provides a very general and flexible class of spatial covariance functions that can be used in a model-based approach to geostatistics, in which parameter estimation is achieved via REML and prediction is within the E-BLUP framework. In this article we develop a general class of linear mixed models using an anisotropic Mat´ern class with an extended metric. The approach is illustrated by application to soil salinity data in a rice-growing field in Australia, and to fine-scale soil pH data. It is found that anisotropy is an important aspect of both datasets, emphasizing the value of a straightforward and accessible approach to modeling anisotropy

Genomic Selection in multi-environment crop trials

Genomic selection in crop breeding introduces modeling challenges not found in animal studies. These include the need to accommodate replicate plants for each line, consider spatial variation in field trials, address line by environment interactions, and capture nonadditive effects. Here, we propose a flexible single-stage genomic selection approach that resolves these issues. Our linear mixed model incorporates spatial variation through environment-specific terms, and also randomization-based design terms. It considers marker, and marker by environment interactions using ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction to extend genomic selection to multiple environments. Since the approach uses the raw data from line replicates, the line genetic variation is partitioned into marker and nonmarker residual genetic variation (i.e., additive and nonadditive effects). This results in a more precise estimate of marker genetic effects. Using barley height data from trials, in 2 different years, of up to 477 cultivars, we demonstrate that our new genomic selection model improves predictions compared to current models. Analyzing single trials revealed improvements in predictive ability of up to 5.7%. For the multiple environment trial (MET) model, combining both year trials improved predictive ability up to 11.4% compared to a single environment analysis. Benefits were significant even when fewer markers were used. Compared to a single-year standard model run with 3490 markers, our partitioned MET model achieved the same predictive ability using between 500 and 1000 markers depending on the trial. Our approach can be used to increase accuracy and confidence in the selection of the best lines for breeding and/or, to reduce costs by using fewer markers

Combined analysis of 08/09 and 2010 experiments

At a meeting held in Canberra in July 2010, it was agreed to undertake a study to investigate whether a combined analysis of the 08/09 series of LMA experiments and the single 2010 experiment was feasible. The current protocol for classification of lines relies on obtaining information from two valid LMA screening experiments. The analysis of the 08/09 series of experiments represented the first attempt to undertake a combined analysis of LMA screening experiments. It is well known (see for example, Mrode [1995]) that the optimum methodology to evaluate genetic material for eventual selection is to use a multivariate or multi-trait analysis. This multi-trait analysis takes account of the relationships which exist between the different traits. In our example, each experiment is considered as a trait and so for these data we have three traits, one for each experiment

Empirical comparison of time series models and tensor product penalised splines for modelling spatial dependence in plant breeding field trials

Plant breeding field trials are typically arranged as a row by column rectangular lattice. They have been widely analysed using linear mixed models in which low order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models, and the subclass of separable lattice processes, are used to account for two-dimensional spatial dependence between the plot errors. A separable first order autoregressive model has been shown to be particularly useful in the analysis of plant breeding trials. Recently, tensor product penalised splines (TPS) have been proposed to model two-dimensional smooth variation in field trial data. This represents a non-stochastic smoothing approach which is in contrast to the autoregressive (AR) approach which models a stochastic covariance structure between the lattice of errors. This paper compares the AR and TPS methods empirically for a large set of early generation plant breeding trials. Here, the fitted models include information on genetic relatedness among the entries being evaluated. This provides a more relevant framework for comparison than the assumption of independent genetic effects. Judged by Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), the AR models were a better fit than the TPS model for more than 80% of trials. In the cases where the TPS model provided a better fit it did so by only a small amount whereas the AR models made a substantial improvement across a range of trials. When the AR and TPS models differ, there can be marked differences in the ranking of genotypes between the two methods of analysis based on their predicted genetic effects. Using the best fitting model for a trial as the benchmark, the rate of mis-classification of entries for selection was greater for the TPS model than the AR models. This has important practical implications for breeder selection decisions

Multiple factors affect socioeconomics and wellbeing of artisanal sea cucumber fishers

Small-scale fisheries are important to livelihoods and subsistence seafood consumption of millions of fishers. Sea cucumbers are fished worldwide for export to Asia, yet few studies have assessed factors affecting socioeconomics and wellbeing among fishers. We interviewed 476 men and women sea cucumber fishers at multiple villages within multiple locations in Fiji, Kiribati, Tonga and New Caledonia using structured questionnaires. Low rates of subsistence consumption confirmed a primary role of sea cucumbers in income security. Prices of sea cucumbers sold by fishers varied greatly among countries, depending on the species. Gender variation in landing prices could be due to women catching smaller sea cucumbers or because some traders take advantage of them. Dissatisfaction with fishery income was common (44% of fishers), especially for i-Kiribati fishers, male fishers, and fishers experiencing difficulty selling their catch, but was uncorrelated with sale prices. Income dissatisfaction worsened with age. The number of livelihood activities averaged 2.2-2.5 across countries, and varied significantly among locations. Sea cucumbers were often a primary source of income to fishers, especially in Tonga. Other common livelihood activities were fishing other marine resources, copra production in Kiribati, agriculture in Fiji, and salaried jobs in New Caledonia. Fishing other coastal and coral reef resources was the most common fall-back livelihood option if fishers were forced to exit the fishery. Our data highlight large disparities in subsistence consumption, gender-related price equity, and livelihood diversity among parallel artisanal fisheries. Improvement of supply chains in dispersed small-scale fisheries appears as a critical need for enhancing income and wellbeing of fishers. Strong evidence for co-dependence among small-scale fisheries, through fall-back livelihood preferences of fishers, suggests that resource managers must mitigate concomitant effects on other fisheries when considering fishery closures. That is likely to depend on livelihood diversification programs to take pressure off co-dependent fisheries

Increased accuracy of starch granule type quantification using mixture distributions

Background: The proportion of granule types in wheat starch is an important characteristic that can affect its functionality. It is widely accepted that granule types are either large, disc-shaped A-type granules or small, spherical B-type granules. Additionally, there are some reports of the tiny C-type granules. The differences between these granule types are due to its carbohydrate composition and crystallinity which is highly, but not perfectly, correlated with the granule size. A majority of the studies that have considered granule types analyse them based on a size threshold rather than chemical composition. This is understandable due to the expense of separating starch into different types. While the use of a size threshold to classify granule type is a low-cost measure, this results in misclassification. We present an alternative, statistical method to quantify the proportion of granule types by a fit of the mixture distribution, along with an R package, a web based app and a video tutorial for how to use the web app to enable its straightforward application. Results: Our results show that the reliability of the gen otypic effects increase approximately 60% using the proportions of the A-type and B-type granule estimated by the mixture distribution over the standard size-threshold measure. Although there was a marginal drop in reliability for C-type granules. The latter is likely due to the low observed genetic variance for C-type granules. Conclusions: The determination of the proportion of granule types from size-distribution is better achieved by using the mixing probabilities from the fit of the mixture distribution rather than using a size-threshold

Identification of crop cultivars with consistently high lignocellulosic sugar release requires the use of appropriate statistical design and modelling

Background In this study, a multi-parent population of barley cultivars was grown in the field for two consecutive years and then straw saccharification (sugar release by enzymes) was subsequently analysed in the laboratory to identify the cultivars with the highest consistent sugar yield. This experiment was used to assess the benefit of accounting for both the multi-phase and multi-environment aspects of large-scale phenotyping experiments with field-grown germplasm through sound statistical design and analysis. Results Complementary designs at both the field and laboratory phases of the experiment ensured that non-genetic sources of variation could be separated from the genetic variation of cultivars, which was the main target of the study. The field phase included biological replication and plot randomisation. The laboratory phase employed re-randomisation and technical replication of samples within a batch, with a subset of cultivars chosen as duplicates that were randomly allocated across batches. The resulting data was analysed using a linear mixed model that incorporated field and laboratory variation and a cultivar by trial interaction, and ensured that the cultivar means were more accurately represented than if the non-genetic variation was ignored. The heritability detected was more than doubled in each year of the trial by accounting for the non-genetic variation in the analysis, clearly showing the benefit of this design and approach. Conclusions The importance of accounting for both field and laboratory variation, as well as the cultivar by trial interaction, by fitting a single statistical model (multi-environment trial, MET, model), was evidenced by the changes in list of the top 40 cultivars showing the highest sugar yields. Failure to account for this interaction resulted in only eight cultivars that were consistently in the top 40 in different years. The correspondence between the rankings of cultivars was much higher at 25 in the MET model. This approach is suited to any multi-phase and multi-environment population-based genetic experiment

Determining the Genetic Architecture of Reproductive Stage Drought Tolerance in Wheat Using a Correlated Trait and Correlated Marker Effect Model

Water stress during reproductive growth is a major yield constraint for wheat (Triticum aestivum L). We previously established a controlled environment drought tolerance phenotyping method targeting the young microspore stage of pollen development. This method eliminates stress avoidance based on flowering time. We substituted soil drought treatments by a reproducible osmotic stress treatment using hydroponics and NaCl as osmolyte. Salt exclusion in hexaploid wheat avoids salt toxicity, causing osmotic stress. A Cranbrook x Halberd doubled haploid (DH) population was phenotyped by scoring spike grain numbers of unstressed (SGNCon) and osmotically stressed (SGNTrt) plants. Grain number data were analyzed using a linear mixed model (LMM) that included genetic correlations between the SGNCon and SGNTrt traits. Viewing this as a genetic regression of SGNTrt on SGNCon allowed derivation of a stress tolerance trait (SGNTol). Importantly, and by definition of the trait, the genetic effects for SGNTol are statistically independent of those for SGNCon. Thus they represent non-pleiotropic effects associated with the stress treatment that are independent of the control treatment. QTL mapping was conducted using a whole genome approach in which the LMM included all traits and all markers simultaneously. The marker effects within chromosomes were assumed to follow a spatial correlation model. This resulted in smooth marker profiles that could be used to identify positions of putative QTL. The most influential QTL were located on chromosome 5A for SGNTol (126cM; contributed by Halberd), 5A for SGNCon (141cM; Cranbrook) and 2A for SGNTrt (116cM; Cranbrook). Sensitive and tolerant population tail lines all showed matching soil drought tolerance phenotypes, confirming that osmotic stress is a valid surrogate screening method