On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies

Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies, an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. annual mortality rate, along with higher-frequency regressors, e.g. daily temperature and precipitation. Practitioners use summaries of the higher-frequency regressors in fixed effects panel models. The choice over summary statistics amounts to model selection. Some practitioners use Monte Carlo cross-validation (MCCV) to justify a particular specification. However, conventional implementation of MCCV with fixed testing-to-full sample ratios tends to select over-fit models. This paper presents conditions under which MCCV, and also information criteria, can deliver consistent model selection. Previous work has established that the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can be inconsistent for non-nested selection. We illustrate that the BIC can also be inconsistent in our framework, when all candidate models are misspecified. Our results have practical implications for empirical conventions in climate change impact studies. Specifically, they highlight the importance of a priori information provided by the scientific literature to guide the models considered for selection. We emphasize caution in interpreting model selection results in settings where the scientific literature does not specify the relationship between the outcome and the weather variables.Comment: Additional simulation results available from authors by reques

Berry's phase with quantized field driving: effects of inter-subsystem coupling

The effect of inter-subsystem couplings on the Berry phase of a composite system as well as that of its subsystem is investigated in this paper. We analyze two coupled spin-$\frac 1 2$ particles with one driven by a quantized field as an example, the pure state geometric phase of the composite system as well as the mixed state geometric phase for the subsystem is calculated and discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

Effect of inter-subsystem couplings on the evolution of composite systems

The effect of inter-subsystem coupling on the adiabaticity of composite systems and that of its subsystems is investigated. Similar to the adiabatic evolution defined for pure states, non-transitional evolution for mixed states is introduced; conditions for the non-transitional evolution are derived and discussed. An example that describes two coupled qubits is presented to detail the general presentation. The effects due to non-adiabatic evolution on the geometric phase are also presented and discussed.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figur

Enhancement of Transition Temperature in FexSe0.5Te0.5 Film via Iron Vacancies

The effects of iron deficiency in FexSe0.5Te0.5 thin films (0.8<x<1) on superconductivity and electronic properties have been studied. A significant enhancement of the superconducting transition temperature (TC) up to 21K was observed in the most Fe deficient film (x=0.8). Based on the observed and simulated structural variation results, there is a high possibility that Fe vacancies can be formed in the FexSe0.5Te0.5 films. The enhancement of TC shows a strong relationship with the lattice strain effect induced by Fe vacancies. Importantly, the presence of Fe vacancies alters the charge carrier population by introducing electron charge carriers, with the Fe deficient film showing more metallic behavior than the defect-free film. Our study provides a means to enhance the superconductivity and tune the charge carriers via Fe vacancy, with no reliance on chemical doping.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure

Long valley relaxation time of free carriers in monolayer WSe<font size=-1>₂</font>

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Do strange stars exist in the Universe?

Definitely, an affirmative answer to this question would have implications of fundamental importance for astrophysics (a new class of compact stars), and for the physics of strong interactions (deconfined phase of quark matter, and strange matter hypothesis). In the present work, we use observational data for the newly discovered millisecond X-ray pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658 and for the atoll source 4U 1728-34 to constrain the radius of the underlying compact stars. Comparing the mass-radius relation of these two compact stars with theoretical models for both neutron stars and strange stars, we argue that a strange star model is more consistent with SAX J1808.4-3658 and 4U 1728-34, and suggest that they are likely strange star candidates.Comment: In memory of Bhaskar Datta. -- Invited talk at the Pacific Rim Conference on Stellar Astrophysics (Hong Kong, aug. 1999