Inflation, Inequality and Social Conflict

This paper presents a political economy model of inflation as a result of social conflict. Agents are heterogeneous in terms of income. Agents' income levels determine their ability to hedge against the effects of inflation. The interaction of heterogeneous cash holdings and preferences over fiscal policy leads to conflict over how to finance government expenditure. The model makes a number of predictions concerning which environments are conducive to the emergence of inflation. Inflation will tend to be higher in countries with higher inequality and with greater pro-rich bias in the political system. Conversely, the use of income tax will be higher in countries with lower inequality and less pro-rich bias. The model also predicts that although inequality and political bias will have an impact on the composition of revenue, it will have no effect on the overall level of government spending (assuming that spending is on public goods only). These results are largely confirmed by the empirical portion of the paper. The paper's novel features are its simplifications at the household level which allow for richer treatment of the income distribution and political process than in the related literature. The paper also gives unequivocal comparative statics results under relatively undemanding assumptions.probabilistic voting, distributional conflict, fiscal policy, inequality, inflation

Command Responsibility in the Former Yugoslavia: The Chances for Successful Prosecution

On 22 February 1993, the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 808 calling for the establishment of an international tribunal for the prosecution of persons responsible for serious violations of international humanitarian law committed in the territory of former Yugoslavia. The resolution also asked the Secretary-General to submit to the Security Council for consideration a report on aspects of the tribunal considering suggestions put forward in this regard by Member states. In May, Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali issued his report and proposed the Statute of the International Tribunal ( Statute ), designed to govern the tribunals establishment and operation

Foreword

The University of Richmond Law Review is pleased to present the second annual Allen Chair Symposium issue. The editorial board hopes that this special issue of the Law Review contributes to the national and international discourse on the state of human rights law

Determination of the most appropriate method for extrapolating overall survival data from a placebo-controlled clinical trial of lenvatinib for progressive, radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer

Background: Cost-effectiveness models for the treatment of long-term conditions often require information on survival beyond the period of available data. Objectives: This paper aims to identify a robust and reliable method for the extrapolation of overall survival (OS) in patients with radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer receiving lenvatinib or placebo. Methods: Data from 392 patients (lenvatinib: 261, placebo: 131) from the SELECT trial are used over a 34-month period of follow-up. A previously published criterion-based approach is employed to ascertain credible estimates of OS beyond the trial data. Parametric models with and without a treatment covariate and piecewise models are used to extrapolate OS, and a holistic approach, where a series of statistical and visual tests are considered collectively, is taken in determining the most appropriate extrapolation model. Results: A piecewise model, in which the Kaplan–Meier survivor function is used over the trial period and an extrapolated tail is based on the Exponential distribution, is identified as the optimal model. Conclusion: In the absence of long-term survival estimates from clinical trials, survival estimates often need to be extrapolated from the available data. The use of a systematic method based on a priori determined selection criteria provides a transparent approach and reduces the risk of bias. The extrapolated OS estimates will be used to investigate the potential long-term benefits of lenvatinib in the treatment of radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer patients and populate future cost-effectiveness analyses

HOW STRESSFUL IS IT TO MOVE? WHOOPING CRANE GLUCOCORTICOID RESPONSE DURING FACILITY TRANSFER

The ability to transfer animals between different facilities for genetic management is a critical component to the success of any cooperatively managed captive animal population despite the high cost and the need for a high level of coordination in logistical planning. Two issues of concern are the magnitude of potential stress responses incurred during shipment of adult cranes to a new facility and the duration of elevated glucocorticoid production during the acclimation periods. The objectives of this project were to assess adrenal responses of whooping cranes (Grus americana) during transfer from the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (PWRC) to other facilities across North America and the influence of transit time on acclimation duration. We conducted 2 separate studies to assess patterns of glucocorticoid production. When comparing the 3 stages of transfer (study 1), fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) concentrations were significantly higher in samples collected from the crate compared to both before and after transfer. During the acclimation period at the new facilities (study 2), 2 patterns emerged, where some birds showed an immediate response then little change in FGM production while others displayed variable production throughout the sampling period. We believe that these different patterns may be due to differences in personality and is an avenue for future investigation. Results from this study help inform future management decisions for individuals being transferred and acclimation to new facilities

Cosmology with Planck: an all-sky temperature and polarisation analysis

Cosmology is now a precision science. The temperature anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) have been exquisitely mapped by many experiments over the last decade. The Planck satellite was launched in 2009, observed the sky in temperature and polarisation, and released the nominal mission temperature data to the public in 2013. Planck has shed new light on CMB polarisation anisotropies and the polarisation signal from our own galaxy, and knowledge of the galactic emission forms a central part of this analysis presented in this thesis. I first introduce the background cosmology and review what we know about CMB temperature and polarisation anisotropies, including their mathematical formulation and representation on the sphere. I review our knowledge of the origin of galactic polarised foregrounds, particularly electron synchrotron and thermal dust emission. I then describe the generation of polarised CMB maps from an input cosmological model, and the generation of CMB polarised foregrounds using a variety of methods to create full-sky maps of the microwave sky at the Planck observing frequencies between 30 and 353 GHz. I develop a parametric fitting maximum-likelihood polarised component separation routine with correlated foreground parameters to extract the CMB and associated foregrounds to a high precision, and show that my method can reliably recover a primordial $\textit{B}$-mode polarisation signal at $\textit{r}$ = 0.1 at multiple map resolutions. I then test the sky model against the full mission Planck data to examine how accurately the foregrounds are simulated, and find that along the galactic plane the simulations are accurate, but at high latitudes the agreement worsens. I also compare the polarisation morphology to that seen in the WMAP data and find a tension between Planck and WMAP. I present an analysis of the dx8 polarisation data in terms of polarised amplitudes and orientations, and investigate a variety of foreground separation routines to get a feel for the reliability of the data. Significant systematic issues are found and I conclude that in their current state, the polarisation data are not reliable enough for precise cosmology. Finally I develop a Fisher matrix analysis of the temperature power spectrum using the full mission covariance matrix to explore the parameter space around a CosmoMC simulation, and extract the principal components for different models. I use this to explore a strange oscillation in the power spectrum and conclude that it is a statistical fluke, a conclusion confirmed in a recent data release. I close by offering extensions to the work and a look into the future of the field

Critical Role of Interleukin-17 Receptor Signaling in the Immunopathology of Influenza Infection

Interleukin-17 (IL-17) is a cytokine produced mainly by T cell lineages that plays a keyrole in regulation of neutrophil responses. Given the importance of neutrophils in the immune response directed against extracellular pathogens, it is no surprise that IL-17 is important in host defense against a multitude of pathogens. Importantly, however, neutrophils also have been shown to play a role in several immunopathological conditions, including acute lung injury. In this dissertation, we evaluate the role that IL-17 plays in the immunopathology of influenza infection. We show here that IL-17 is produced as early as day 2 following influenza challenge, and that this expression is sustained throughout the first week of infection. Further, we identify γδ T cells as at least one important source of IL-17 in response to influenza. We also demonstrate that loss of IL-17 receptor A (IL-17RA) signaling results in a profound decrease in neutrophil recruitment to the lung following influenza challenge. This decrease in neutrophils results in substantially less inflammation and lung injury, as well as higher survival rates. Additionally, there is only a moderate impact on viral clearance and T cell responses. Further, we detail similar findings in a non-infectious aspiration model of acute lung injury. Taken together, this data suggests that IL-17 signaling may be a key event, and intriguing therapeutic target, in the pathogenesis of acute lung injury

Use of Dual-Polarization Radar Variables to Assess Low-Level Wind Shear in Severe Thunderstorm Near-storm Environments in the Tennessee Valley

The upgrade of the National Weather Service (NWS) network of S ]band dual-polarization radars is currently underway, and the incorporation of polarimetric information into the real ]time forecasting process will enhance the forecaster fs ability to assess thunderstorms and their near ]storm environments. Recent research has suggested that the combination of polarimetric variables differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP) can be useful in the assessment of low level wind shear within a thunderstorm. In an environment with strong low ]level veering of the wind, ZDR values will be largest along the right inflow edge of the thunderstorm near a large gradient in horizontal reflectivity (indicative of large raindrops falling with a relative lack of smaller drops), and take the shape of an arc. Meanwhile, KDP values, which are proportional to liquid water content and indicative of a large number of smaller drops, are maximized deeper into the forward flank precipitation shield than the ZDR arc as the smaller drops are being advected further from the updraft core by the low level winds than the larger raindrops. Using findings from previous work, three severe weather events that occurred in North Alabama were examined in order to assess the utility of these signatures in determining the potential for tornadic activity. The first case is from October 26, 2010, where a large number of storms indicated tornadic potential from a standard reflectivity and velocity analysis but very few storms actually produced tornadoes. The second event is from February 28, 2011, where tornadic storms were present early on in the event, but as the day progressed, the tornado threat transitioned to a high wind threat. The third case is from April 27, 2011, where multiple rounds of tornadic storms ransacked the Tennessee Valley. This event provides a dataset including multiple modes of tornadic development, including QLCS and supercell structures. The overarching goal of examining these three events is to compare dual ]polarization features from this larger dataset to previous work and to determine if these signatures can be a useful indication of the potential for tornadic activity associated with the amount of low ]level wind shear in the near ]storm environment