Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

EMPOWERED trial: protocol for a randomised control trial of digitally supported, highly personalised and measurement-based care to improve functional outcomes in young people with mood disorders

Objectives Many adolescents and young adults with emerging mood disorders do not achieve substantial improvements in education, employment, or social function after receiving standard youth mental health care. We have developed a new model of care referred to as 'highly personalised and measurement-based care' (HP&MBC). HP&MBC involves repeated assessment of multidimensional domains of morbidity to enable continuous and personalised clinical decision-making. Although measurement-based care is common in medical disease management, it is not a standard practice in mental health. This clinical effectiveness trial tests whether HP&MBC, supported by continuous digital feedback, delivers better functional improvements than standard care and digital support. Method and analysis This controlled implementation trial is a PROBE study (Prospective, Randomised, Open, Blinded End-point) that comprises a multisite 24-month, assessor-blinded, follow-up study of 1500 individuals aged 15-25 years who present for mental health treatment. Eligible participants will be individually randomised (1:1) to 12 months of HP&MBC or standardised clinical care. The primary outcome measure is social and occupational functioning 12 months after trial entry, assessed by the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale. Clinical and social outcomes for all participants will be monitored for a further 12 months after cessation of active care. Ethics and dissemination This clinical trial has been reviewed and approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Sydney Local Health District (HREC Approval Number: X22-0042 & 2022/ETH00725, Protocol ID: BMC-YMH-003-2018, protocol version: V.3, 03/08/2022). Research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, presentations at scientific conferences, and to user and advocacy groups. Participant data will be deidentified. Trial registration number ACTRN12622000882729

Contributions of high- and low-quality patches to a metapopulation with stochastic disturbance

© The Author(s), 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Theoretical Ecology 5 (2012): 167-179, doi:10.1007/s12080-010-0106-9.Studies of time-invariant matrix metapopulation models indicate that metapopulation growth rate is usually more sensitive to the vital rates of individuals in high-quality (i.e., good) patches than in low-quality (i.e., bad) patches. This suggests that, given a choice, management efforts should focus on good rather than bad patches. Here, we examine the sensitivity of metapopulation growth rate for a two-patch matrix metapopulation model with and without stochastic disturbance and found cases where managers can more efficiently increase metapopulation growth rate by focusing efforts on the bad patch. In our model, net reproductive rate differs between the two patches so that in the absence of dispersal, one patch is high quality and the other low quality. Disturbance, when present, reduces net reproductive rate with equal frequency and intensity in both patches. The stochastic disturbance model gives qualitatively similar results to the deterministic model. In most cases, metapopulation growth rate was elastic to changes in net reproductive rate of individuals in the good patch than the bad patch. However, when the majority of individuals are located in the bad patch, metapopulation growth rate can be most elastic to net reproductive rate in the bad patch. We expand the model to include two stages and parameterize the patches using data for the softshell clam, Mya arenaria. With a two-stage demographic model, the elasticities of metapopulation growth rate to parameters in the bad patch increase, while elasticities to the same parameters in the good patch decrease. Metapopulation growth rate is most elastic to adult survival in the population of the good patch for all scenarios we examine. If the majority of the metapopulation is located in the bad patch, the elasticity to parameters of that population increase but do not surpass elasticity to parameters in the good patch. This model can be expanded to include additional patches, multiple stages, stochastic dispersal, and complex demography.Financial support was provided by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Academic Programs Office; National Science Foundation grants OCE-0326734, OCE- 0215905, OCE-0349177, DEB-0235692, DEB-0816514, DMS- 0532378, OCE-1031256, and ATM-0428122; and by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Sea Grant College Program Office, Department of Commerce, under Grant No. NA86RG0075 (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Sea Grant Project No. R/0-32), and Grant No. NA16RG2273 (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Sea Grant Project No. R/0-35)

Evaluation of Five Methods for Total DNA Extraction from Western Corn Rootworm Beetles

Background: DNA extraction is a routine step in many insect molecular studies. A variety of methods have been used to isolate DNA molecules from insects, and many commercial kits are available. Extraction methods need to be evaluated for their efficiency, cost, and side effects such as DNA degradation during extraction. Methodology/Principal Findings: From individual western corn rootworm beetles, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, DNA extractions by the SDS method, CTAB method, DNAzol reagent, Puregene solutions and DNeasy column were compared in terms of DNA quantity and quality, cost of materials, and time consumed. Although all five methods resulted in acceptable DNA concentrations and absorbance ratios, the SDS and CTAB methods resulted in higher DNA yield (ng DNA vs. mg tissue) at much lower cost and less degradation as revealed on agarose gels. The DNeasy kit was most time-efficient but was the costliest among the methods tested. The effects of ethanol volume, temperature and incubation time on precipitation of DNA were also investigated. The DNA samples obtained by the five methods were tested in PCR for six microsatellites located in various positions of the beetle’s genome, and all samples showed successful amplifications. Conclusion/Significance: These evaluations provide a guide for choosing methods of DNA extraction from western corn rootworm beetles based on expected DNA yield and quality, extraction time, cost, and waste control. The extraction conditions for this mid-size insect were optimized. The DNA extracted by the five methods was suitable for further molecular applications such as PCR and sequencing by synthesis

Incidental cardiac findings on computed tomography imaging of the thorax

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Investigation of pulmonary pathology with computed tomography also allows visualisation of the heart and major vessels. We sought to explore whether clinically relevant cardiac pathology could be identified on computed tomography pulmonary angiograms (CTPA) requested for the exclusion of pulmonary embolism (PE). 100 consecutive CT contrast-enhanced pulmonary angiograms carried out for exclusion of PE at a single centre were assessed retrospectively by two cardiologists.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Evidence of PE was reported in 5% of scans. Incidental cardiac findings included: aortic wall calcification (54%), coronary calcification (46%), cardiomegaly (41%), atrial dilatation (18%), mitral annulus calcification (15%), right ventricular dilatation (11%), aortic dilatation (8%) and right ventricular thrombus (1%). Apart from 3 (3%) reports describing cardiomegaly, no other cardiac findings were described in radiologists' reports. Other reported pulmonary abnormalities included: lung nodules (14%), lobar collapse/consolidation (8%), pleural effusion (2%), lobar collapse/consolidation (8%), emphysema (6%) and pleural calcification (4%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CTPAs requested for the exclusion of PE have a high yield of cardiac abnormalities. Although these abnormalities may not have implications for acute clinical management, they may, nevertheless, be important in long-term care.</p

Carotid intimal-media thickness as a surrogate for cardiovascular disease events in trials of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors

BACKGROUND: Surrogate measures for cardiovascular disease events have the potential to increase greatly the efficiency of clinical trials. A leading candidate for such a surrogate is the progression of intima-media thickness (IMT) of the carotid artery; much experience has been gained with this endpoint in trials of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). METHODS AND RESULTS: We examine two separate systems of criteria that have been proposed to define surrogate endpoints, based on clinical and statistical arguments. We use published results and a formal meta-analysis to evaluate whether progression of carotid IMT meets these criteria for HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). IMT meets clinical-based criteria to serve as a surrogate endpoint for cardiovascular events in statin trials, based on relative efficiency, linkage to endpoints, and congruency of effects. Results from a meta-analysis and post-trial follow-up from a single published study suggest that IMT meets established statistical criteria by accounting for intervention effects in regression models. CONCLUSION: Carotid IMT progression meets accepted definitions of a surrogate for cardiovascular disease endpoints in statin trials. This does not, however, establish that it may serve universally as a surrogate marker in trials of other agents

Carotid plaque regression following 6-month statin therapy assessed by 3T cardiovascular magnetic resonance: comparison with ultrasound intima media thickness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) allows volumetric carotid plaque measurement that has advantage over 2-dimensional ultrasound (US) intima-media thickness (IMT) in evaluating treatment response. We tested the hypothesis that 6-month statin treatment in patients with carotid plaque will lead to plaque regression when measured by 3 Tesla CMR but not by IMT.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty-six subjects (67 ± 2 years, 7 females) with known carotid plaque (> 1.1 mm) and coronary or cerebrovascular atherosclerotic disease underwent 3T CMR (T1, T2, proton density and time of flight sequences) and US at baseline and following 6 months of statin therapy (6 had initiation, 7 had increase and 13 had maintenance of statin dosing). CMR plaque volume (PV) was measured in the region 12 mm below and up to 12 mm above carotid flow divider using software. Mean posterior IMT in the same region was measured. Baseline and 6-month CMR PV and US IMT were compared. Change in lipid rich/necrotic core (LR/NC) and calcification plaque components from CMR were related to change in PV.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol decreased (86 ± 6 to 74 ± 4 mg/dL, p = 0.046). CMR PV decreased 5.8 ± 2% (1036 ± 59 to 976 ± 65 mm³, p = 0.018). Mean IMT was unchanged (1.12 ± 0.06 vs. 1.14 ± 0.06 mm, p = NS). Patients with initiation or increase of statins had -8.8 ± 2.8% PV change (p = 0.001) while patients with maintenance of statin dosing had -2.7 ± 3% change in PV (p = NS). There was circumferential heterogeneity in CMR plaque thickness with greatest thickness in the posterior carotid artery, in the region opposite the flow divider. Similarly there was circumferential regional difference in <it>change </it>of plaque thickness with significant plaque regression in the anterior carotid region in region of the flow divider. Change in LR/NC (R = 0.62, p = 0.006) and calcification (R = 0.45, p = 0.03) correlated with PV change.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Six month statin therapy in patients with carotid plaque led to reduced plaque volume by 3T CMR, but ultrasound posterior IMT did not show any change. The heterogeneous spatial distribution of plaque and regional differences in magnitude of plaque regression may explain the difference in findings and support volumetric measurement of plaque. 3T CMR has potential advantage over ultrasound IMT to assess treatment response in individuals and may allow reduced sample size, duration and cost of clinical trials of plaque regression.</p

Small-Scale Fisheries Bycatch Jeopardizes Endangered Pacific Loggerhead Turtles

Background. Although bycatch of industrial-scale fisheries can cause declines in migratory megafauna including seabirds, marine mammals, and sea turtles, the impacts of small-scale fisheries have been largely overlooked. Small-scale fisheries occur in coastal waters worldwide, employing over 99 % of the world’s 51 million fishers. New telemetry data reveal that migratory megafauna frequent coastal habitats well within the range of small-scale fisheries, potentially producing high bycatch. These fisheries occur primarily in developing nations, and their documentation and management are limited or non-existent, precluding evaluation of their impacts on non-target megafauna. Principal Findings/Methodology. 30 North Pacific loggerhead turtles that we satellite-tracked from 1996–2005 ranged oceanwide, but juveniles spent 70 % of their time at a high use area coincident with small-scale fisheries in Baja California Sur, Mexico (BCS). We assessed loggerhead bycatch mortality in this area by partnering with local fishers to 1) observe two small-scale fleets that operated closest to the high use area and 2) through shoreline surveys for discarded carcasses. Minimum annual bycatch mortality in just these two fleets at the high use area exceeded 1000 loggerheads year 21, rivaling that of oceanwide industrial-scale fisheries, and threatening the persistence of this critically endangered population. As a result of fisher participation in this study and a bycatch awareness campaign, a consortium of local fishers and other citizens are working to eliminate their bycatch and to establish a national loggerhea